Winners, losers and spoilers
The impact of information technologies on everyday human activity has been so sweeping that for majority of populations in the digitally connected world life is viewed in two broad ways: online and offline.
Increasingly, productivity, GDP growth, media competition, social networking, higher education, inclusiveness of communities, pluralism of ideas, political campaigns, human security, defence, banking and thinking professions relate to adoption of the newest and most innovative technologies.
A recent study by Accenture Strategy and Oxford Economics suggests that expanding use of digital technology could add as much as $1.36 trillion dollars to the GDP of the top 10 world economies in 2020 – which will be 2.3 per cent more than baseline forecasts.
That impetus would certainly give an added advantage to industrialised, knowledge-driven and diverse economies. Nevertheless, the rapid pace of advances and their unequal availability also poses challenges including the digital divide between the rich economic powers and the developing countries.
A UN General Assembly meeting recently noted that by 2015 end only 34 per cent of households in developing countries would have Internet access, compared with more than 80 per cent in developed countries. This means that two-thirds of the population in developing countries still remains offline.
The picture, however, may be mixed and the digital rift may be getting bridged faster than previously thought due to easy availability, utility and rapid proliferation of some information and communication technologies.
For example, the UN estimates that the number of mobile phone subscriptions has risen from 2.2 billion in 2005 to 7.1 billion in 2015 – a great leap indeed, and with it come possibilities for growth of small and medium businesses, expanded opportunities for students and professionals, and increased prospects for poverty reduction.
By the end of 2015, 3.2 billion people are estimably online — more than 43 per cent of the total world population. Quite significantly, the 3.2 billion people include two billion from developing countries.
A recent study by Accenture Strategy and Oxford Economics suggests that expanding use of digital technology could add as much as $1.36 trillion dollars to the GDP of the top 10 world economies in 2020
Among other indicators, the world body says, fixed broadband subscriptions have reached a penetration rate of almost 10 per cent, as compared to 3.4 per cent in 2005, and that mobile broadband remains the fastest growing market segment, with continuous double-digit growth rates and an estimated global penetration rate of 32 per cent, or four times the penetration rate recorded just five years earlier.
But these figures vary sharply between countries, mainly owing to differences in prevalent cultures, levels of governance, openness, social, political, economic inequalities and degrees of transparency – the status or lack of democracy.
Consequently, people in the least connected countries such as North Korea and closed societies or poorly governed countries in the Middle East and African regions remain bogged down in a sea of state and societal troubles. Corrupt practices among elites, shortages of infrastructure and incentives necessary for growth, minimise prospects for economic growth and diversification of national economies.
Interestingly, people disillusioned with denial of political rights and economic opportunity under totalitarian regimes in Tunis, Egypt, Libya and Syria channelled their 2011 protests both on streets and through the use of ICTs to spread their Arab Spring message of revolutions. On the other hand, in Iraq and Syria militant organisations including the ISIS or Daesh are also abusing ICTs to perpetuate violence and their violent narratives.
So far, introduction of ICTs have had mixed results even in human resource-rich but developing countries in South Asia where people have not been able to catch up with digital transformations due to venal corruption, lack of infrastructure, and a range of lingering governance issues. For instance, frequent power outages frustrate students, teachers and researchers in Pakistan from pursuing higher standards with the help of online research. In India, which has benefited enormously from an early focus on IT advancement, hundreds of millions of people – more than twice the size of the Pakistani population – still live below poverty line.
Clearly, the ICT technologies and related businesses need enabling environments for their growth and widespread economic benefits. As noted by the UN, differences in individuals’ capabilities to both use and create ICTs represent a knowledge divide that perpetuates inequality.
“We note, too, the ambition to move beyond information societies to knowledge societies in which information is not only created and disseminated, but put to the benefit of human development,” a document at the conclusion of the General Assembly reviewing goals and progress of World Summit on the Information Society, said.
Then there is the question of the digital divide between men and women, and dominant sway of some languages at the cost of others.
Data shows that as of 2015, only around 43 per cent of people globally have Internet access, only 41 per cent of women have Internet access, and an estimated 80 per cent of online content is available in only one of 10 languages. The poor are the most excluded from the benefits of ICTs.
It is clear that new frontiers of economic growth and fair distribution of wealth are inextricably linked to social and political freedoms with plurality of ideas being mainstay of the marketplace of ideas. The United States is a leading example of how an economy benefits from the best and brightest professionals including a large number of immigrants. In the wake of recent anti-immigration statements by European far-right politicians and some US Republican candidates like Donald Trump and Ben Carson – who conveniently overlook the fact that Steve Jobs was the son of a Syrian immigrant — tech giants including Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and Google CEO Sundar Pichai and many others have opposed such suggestions.
The Internet-eased freedom of expression has already started making a huge difference is opinion-shaping through the social media
The Internet-eased freedom of expression has already started making a huge difference is opinion-shaping through the social media. The widely circulated image of a Syrian toddler lying dead facedown on a Turkish shore – the result of an unsuccessful attempt of his family to take refuge in Europe – led to international outcry and influenced discourse on rich countries’ taking in more war-hit refugees.
But do we see a similar thing happening in conflicts raging on the African continent? There are too many disconnects and the world has not been able to fully grasp the extent of sufferings in Central African Republic, Nigeria, Sudan and elsewhere.
Nevertheless, like many other modern inventions, the social media have the potential to be a mixed blessing. Militants, sex predators and human smugglers prey on vulnerable youth as they exploit human and societal weaknesses through misuse of many forms of the social media. Then there are issues of cyber insecurity, cyber espionage, cyber financial crimes, privacy concerns and the use of encryptions with ever new apps.
Yet the ICTs hold immense power to be agents of change for good. The undemocratic regimes that suppress rights of people, deny them economic opportunity, and the corrupt who use new methods of plundering national wealth, will have a hard time reversing the positive gains the digital advances are making worldwide.
Many analysts believe that it is only a matter of time that the retrogressive governments and dictatorial regimes as in Egypt and Myanmar will have to concede, be open, transparent and allow democratic transitions in their countries.
But that would require constant international reminders and evaluations. Making technology affordable, accessible and linking aid to countries’ verifiable progress in the field of information and communication technologies in the spirit of freedom of expression under the UN-set sustainable development goals may be first vital steps.
