Despite the weak growth among the major emerging market in South Asia, Pakistan’s GDP is expected to accelerate to 4.5 per cent against the growth of 7.8 per cent of its neighbouring country India, according to the World Bank’s January 2016 Global Economic Prospects released on Thursday.
“For fiscal year 2016-17, India, the dominant economy in the region, is projected to grow at a faster 7.8 per cent and growth in Pakistan (on a factor cost basis) is expected to accelerate to 4.5 per cent,” the report said.
The South Asia region is projected to be a bright spot in the outlook for emerging and developing economies, with growth speeding up to 7.3 per cent in 2016 from 7 per cent in the year just ended. The region is a net importer of oil and will benefit from lower global energy prices. At the same time, because of relatively low global integration, the region is shielded from growth fluctuations in other economies.
Weak growth among major emerging markets will weigh on global growth in 2016, but economic activity should still pick up modestly to a 2.9 per cent pace, from 2.4 per cent growth in 2015, as advanced economies gain speed, according to the WB Economic Prospects said.
Simultaneous weakness in most major emerging markets is a concern for achieving the goals of poverty reduction and shared prosperity because those countries have been powerful contributors to global growth for the past decade. Spillovers from major emerging markets will constrain growth in developing countries and pose a threat to hard-won gains in raising people out of poverty, the report warns.
“More than 40 per cent of the world’s poor live in the developing countries where growth slowed in 2015,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. “Developing countries should focus on building resilience to a weaker economic environment and shielding the most vulnerable. The benefits from reforms to governance and business conditions are potentially large and could help offset the effects of slow growth in larger economies.”
Global economic growth was less than expected in 2015, when falling commodity prices, flagging trade and capital flows, and episodes of financial volatility sapped economic activity. Firmer growth ahead will depend on continued momentum in high income countries, the stabilisation of commodity prices, and China’s gradual transition towards a more consumption and services-based growth model.
Developing economies are forecast to expand by 4.8 per cent in 2016, less than expected earlier but up from a post-crisis low of 4.3 per cent in the year just ended. Growth is projected to slow further in China, while Russia and Brazil are expected to remain in recession in 2016. The South Asia region, led by India, is projected to be a bright spot. The recently negotiated Trans-Pacific Partnership could provide a welcome boost to trade.
“There is greater divergence in performance among emerging economies. Compared to six months ago, risks have increased, particularly those associated with the possibility of a disorderly slowdown in a major emerging economy,” said World Bank Group Vice President and Chief Economist Kaushik Basu. “A combination of fiscal and central bank policies can be helpful in mitigating these risks and supporting growth.”
Although unlikely, a faster-than-expected slowdown in large emerging economies could have global repercussions. Risks to the outlook also include financial stress around the US federal reserve tightening cycle and heightened geopolitical tensions.
“Stronger growth in advanced markets will only partially offset the risks of continued weakness in major emerging markets,” said World Bank Development Economic Prospects Group Director Ayhan Kose. “In addition, the risk of financial turmoil in a new era of higher borrowing costs remains.”
East Asia and Pacific: Growth in the region is projected to continue to slow to 6.3 per cent in 2016 from a slightly less-than-expected 6.4 per cent in 2015. Growth in China is forecasted to ease further to 6.7 per cent in 2016 from 6.9 per cent in 2015. Growth in the region excluding China was 4.6 per cent in 2015, broadly unchanged from 2014, as weaker growth in commodity exporters, including Indonesia and Malaysia, was offset by growth acceleration in Vietnam and moderate recovery in Thailand. Risks include a faster-than-expected slowdown in China, the possibility of renewed financial market turbulence, and an abrupt tightening of financing conditions.
Europe and Central Asia: Growth is projected to rise to 3 per cent in 2016 from 2.1 per cent in the year just ended as oil prices fall more slowly or stabilise, the Russian Federation’s economy improves, and Ukraine recovers. Economic activity in Russia is projected to contract by 0.7 per cent in 2016 after shrinking by 3.8 per cent in the year just ended. Growth could resume modestly in the eastern part of the region, which includes Eastern Europe, South Caucasus, and Central Asia, if there is a stabilisation of commodity prices. The western part of the region, which includes Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey and the Western Balkans, should grow moderately in 2016, buoyed by recovery in the Euro Area.
