And what it’ll take
Prime ministers hardly give counterparts – especially in testing times – just a matter of hours before calling on them personally, that too after announcing their intention in a tweet. There must, therefore, have been more to the surprise visit than was allowed to be known. And strangely, even a week after the visit, questions remain unanswered. Why, for example, would Modi deliver his usual anti-Pakistan venom in Kabul and then, suddenly, come to Lahore for what is being portrayed as a ‘let bygones by bygones’ kind of a turnaround moment in Indo-Pak history?
The going narrative is that international powers finally bore down on New Delhi to abandon the extremist position taken since BJP came back to power. The Americans, British, Chinese and, some say, even the Russians have made it clear to Modi that needless Pak-India friction will no longer be allowed to hold the region hostage. For his part, Nawaz went as far as he could to build better ties with India – at the cost of alienating not just the military, but also his core right-wing constituency which is opposed to any thaw with Delhi. And, repeatedly, it was Modi’s behaviour that seemed to rule out any progress at least for the foreseeable future.
But there is more than just external pressure. India’s diverse polity and society would not have tolerated the country’s sudden and alarming shift to the extreme right for too long. There was social and intellectual reaction when writers and intellectuals returned coveted awards in protest. And there was electoral backlash – in Delhi and Bihar. Also, Modi had promised economic priorities on the campaign trail; and it has finally dawned on him that without peace with Pakistan South Asia will not be a very profitable market in the present environment. But, if that was the logic coming to Lahore, this was the easy part. Countless times Delhi and Islamabad have shook hands only to ultimately return to confrontation. And temperatures have rarely been raised so belligerently as recently since Modi came to power. The greatest care must now be taken to ensure progress. If Modi genuinely wants peace and commerce with Pakistan, he will have to do more than make news-making gestures.