Much to look ahead and look out for
The tide between Pakistan and India is turning again and one hopes that this time some concrete steps are taken from both governments to cement a relationship that has, historically, been mired in deadlock and aggression.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Pakistan doesn’t just open up deeper levels of talks but also suggests a substantial policy shift within the Indian establishment to create good working ties with Pakistan — the lack of which has blocked cross-border projects such as TAPI, IPI as well as energy sharing ventures within the region.
Political Economist Mobeen Chughtai, commenting on the issue, told DNA that now if both parties play their cards right there is massive potential for growth.
Unfortunately, one will have to wait and see before lauding these efforts too much since the basic nature of the India-Pakistan relations remains fickle, at best. The invitation forwarded to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was another good gesture but we all saw how relations with India after that actually deteriorated with cross border firing an almost regular incidence, he added.
“What that suggests is that both prime ministers now need to work to sell the message at home,” said Chughtai, adding that PM Sharif has the added assignment of getting Pakistan’s security apparatus on board before any major steps can be discussed so that Delhi hears only one narrative coming out of Islamabad. That is not to say that things will be any easier in Delhi.
PM Modi has peddled a very noxious narrative against Pakistan for many months that has resultantly strengthened anti-Pakistan forces in India. Repercussions of that policy are now being seen in the form of the rise of Hindu nationalism in the country.
“The real test of this bold new endeavour will be how well both PMs address challenges at home in order to bring the two countries closer on a sustainable basis,” he said.
PM Modi has peddled a very noxious narrative against Pakistan for many months that has resultantly strengthened anti-Pakistan forces in India
Adding to what Chughtai stated political analyst Marvi Sirmed said that the thaw between two countries and departure from politics of aggression has kindled hopes for peace. The process, however, needs to be un-interrupted and substantial. The year 2016 is going to see repeated interactions between two prime ministers in the World Economic Forum, Nuclear Security Summit, SAARC and Heart of Asia conference. Hopefully these meetings would be punctuated by substantial discussions as part of the Comprehensive Dialogue.
Journalist Omar R Quraishi told DNA that it was a very good beginning and let’s hope it bears fruit and we see the Pakistan-India relationship somewhat normalising. The visit was widely welcomed by all political parties in Pakistan, most of whom have been unequivocally pro-peace with India. As for Delhi, Modi’s move seems to have taken the Indian political spectrum by surprise.
For political analyst Wajahat Masood, Modi’s Lahore visit is a huge blow to the extremists, war-mongers and militarists on both sides of the border. Times are changing and the traders of hatred are going out of business fast.
However, journalist Muhsen Ali, hailing from Kashmir, was of the opinion that PM Modi – apparently – surprised everyone across the Indo-Pakistan border by paying a much-debated visit to Lahore where he met Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and other political leadership. This short visit has raised high hopes for more and open interactions between the two countries.
“No doubt the Jati Umra meeting created an extraordinary feel-good moment for the people, especially in the disputed and divided state of Jammu Kashmir. (I am not talking about so-called ‘policy-makers’ in either side),” said Ali.
He added that the Indian leader’s surprise or may be ‘much-awaited’ visit to Pakistan is a positive move. All peace loving people welcome any opportunities that bring Pakistan and India close.
“We can say that political will and vision is needed on all sides to address all outstanding issues including Jammu Kashmir. As the situation is different in the backdrop of the dynamics of global economic liberalisation as an order which believes that peace and disputes can never co-exist,” said Ali.
He added that now much would depend on whether Nawaz Sharif and Narendra Modi will be able to show not only bold leadership but also stable policies that change destinies of their people. Anything less will be the continuation of the same old story.
According to credible circles, the US, United Kingdom and China (and may be Russia as well) are believed to have pushed Islamabad and New Delhi to make a renewed attempt by resuming dialogue on outstanding issues, two-way visits and open meetings. One point is also very much clear that Prime Minister Modi seems to want to open the door that he himself shut. The Lahore trip now has been hailed by experts and policymakers. So it is the responsibility of the two leaders to interact with each other fairly and openly and discuss what they want but they should not initiate any kind of discussion on the status of Jammu Kashmir until and unless Kashmiri representatives are in the loop.
“We can only hope that the relationship between Pakistan and India will be retrieved one day from the clutches of fanatics and non-state actors. As always, there is a chance that some ‘invisible’ forces determined to disturb peaceful interactions and surprised visits,” said Ali adding that on the other hand, we have to closely watch all discussions on some TV channels that the military is out from the scene during the Jati Umra meeting. For me, the military is not opposed to talks between the political leadership of the two sides, but some TV anchors are trying to create a sense among the people that the ‘responsible’ institution was not aware of the arrival of a ‘surprised guest’ and his team in Pakistan.
Ali opined that the complexity of relations, both geographical and political, needs to be addressed, not only for a prosperous present, but also for future generations. Kashmiris consider this development as an effectively civilised means to move out from the frozen yesterdays to a peacefully productive tomorrow. Let no gloom of yesterday’s blur any prospect of a better and brighter tomorrow.
Experience teaches us that unless there is genuine desire on the part of both parties to break from the past, mere agreements are unlikely to deliver results
Adding to what Ali stated political analyst Anjum Rasheed told DNA that this perception is absolutely wrong that PM Nawaz did not involve more people. “I am absolutely sure that the meeting between both the prime ministers took place with the consent of the military establishment of both the countries,” said Rasheed adding that such a meeting could not be arranged without taking the military establishment into confidence.
Defence Analyst Talat Masood opined that Prime Minister Narendra Modi took a hard stance against Pakistan and refused to engage with it until such time that it moved forward on the Mumbai trial and also yielded on other bilateral issues.
“This policy of pressuring failed to achieve its objective as Pakistan had its own priorities to advance. Persuasion, if not pressure, from the US and Britain on Modi to engage with Pakistan was also helpful in initiating dialogue,” said Masood adding that setbacks to the BJP in state elections, first in Delhi and later in Bihar, were also a reminder that a change in policy was needed — both domestic and external.
He said experience teaches us that unless there is genuine desire on the part of both parties to break from the past, mere agreements are unlikely to deliver results.
Political commentator Saqlain Imam opined that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Lahore on 25th December is being dubbed a surprise. It may be so, but this “surprise visit” indicates a big shift in the “rightist” leaderships of the two countries from their adversarial policy to economic collaboration where realities seem to be overwhelming ideological positions. Therefore, it may be safely said that Modi’s visit not only marked the end of 2015, but also a departure from a protracted ideological Cold War between India and Pakistan. It’s a clear sign of a paradigm shift, said Imam adding that soon, like Prime Minister Modi, even ordinary citizens of India and Pakistan will be travelling to each other’s country with a relaxed visa regime.
Imam opined that in spite of the optimism that has ensued after this surprise visit, the path to resilient peace is dogged by mines of traditional mutual mistrust, non-state actors, and hawks on both sides which can still delay the peace process.
