And a storm of scepticism follows
Indian premier’s surprise visit to Pakistan has overtaken the media space since it took place on December 25, which happened to be PM Sharif’s birthday as well. Anyway, the visit under discussion has been very vocally analysed, dissected and debated by think tanks on both sides of the border. Some have appreciated it while others have been successful in coining conspiracy theories. Still others have been able to come up with definitely legitimate concerns.
The personal bonhomie definitely ended with the father in Modi’s cap, who has abruptly shifted his reputation with this diplomatic masterstroke. But that is not all. This meeting signifies the resumption of talks, and the fact that we will not be glaring at each other all the time. However, the lavish hospitality, the personal nature of visit without any set agenda, and then this possibility of a business deal due to the presence of Jindal have posed serious questions about the sincerity of Pakistani government.
“The resumption of comprehensive talks is certainly a positive development,” wrote eminent columnist Zahid Hussain in his article for a reputable English daily.
However, like everyone, Hussain does have concerns, and therefore writes further.
“But it remains to be seen whether they can produce tangible results on critical issues and prod the two leaders to move beyond symbolic gestures.”
And this is exactly what the entire nation is concerned about.
The motives that could be
This can be easily acknowledged by looking at geography of South Asia, that India and Pakistan do not have many options other than the resumption of talks, since both are dependent on each other.
Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri has been a successful foreign minister during the Musharraf era, and has recently launched a very comprehensive book on Pakistan-India ties. He could see it coming.
“I had predicted in my book that neither Pakistan nor India had an option not to talk,” he said while talking to DNA.
“I had addressed PM Modi specifically, because of harsh rhetoric coming from New Delhi.”
However, it is a fact that the memories of partition still haunt the two nations, and persistent issues like Kashmir make sure that the two countries stay frozen in the impasse of arch rivalry. Therefore, a hard-line element has always been favoured by both countries, and until recently Modi has been an embodiment of hard-line India.
So what exactly could have motivated him to take such a bold step and risk his own reputation in India? Kasuri thinks there are specific motives.
“Wherever Mr Modi has gone, he has been suggested to talk to Pakistan because of numerous reasons,” said Kasuri. The recent geo-strategic motives and the peculiar situation of Afghanistan are a major cause behind this international concern.
“Afghanistan needs to be stable and no one wants any proxy wars there anymore,” he went on. “Terrorism confounds the whole world and Modi has to listen.”
International facilitation is not something new.
So what exactly could have motivated him to take such a bold step and risk his own reputation in India? Kasuri thinks there are specific motives
“When I was the foreign minister, and Mr Vajpayee extended his famous hand of friendship, I had received a call from Colin Powell that there would be positive developments. So we were all mentally prepared,” Kasuri added.
However, international facilitation is not all, and there are other implicit reasons too.
“I am not suggesting that we have been coerced to talk,” he asserted. “Pakistan and India both are big countries and cannot be coerced.”
So what are those other reasons? Kasuri thinks that internal dynamics of India are one major reason.
“Civil society in India has woken up,” he pointed out.
“There have been events like the blackening of Mr Kulkarni’s face at my book launch. A Muslim was murdered for allegedly eating beef. Again a Muslim truck driver has faced trouble for allegedly transporting beef. Civil society has consequently woken up that the India dreamed by Nehru and Gandhi is perhaps not there. This was followed by the Bihar elections and everyone knows the results. Elections are due in UP, Bihar and Bengal, who have sizable Muslim populations. Polarisation of Hindus and Muslims has not paid off electorally. There were military reasons as well, as Pakistan and India have engaged in largest mobilisation of troops since the Second World War.”
So this had to happen. Moreover Kasuri narrated recent events like various talks that have taken place, and explained the whole sequence of events. “If you see in light of recent events, then this surprise visit was not really a surprise,” he claimed.
Hence, this was not just some far-flung surprise visit. Rather, diplomatic and regional dynamics played a major role.
Irony of the Iron Men
However, the involvement of Indian steel tycoon Jindal in the process has raised criticism and posed serious questions on the sincerity of the visit. Many published sources claim that Jindal being a family friend of Sharif for two generations was just there and arranged the meeting for purely business reasons.
Imran Khan, PTI Chairman, has been very vocal in his opposition to the government. He however took a neutral stand this time, but still pointed out his doubt as well. He stated on Twitter, “We welcome the thaw in Pak-India relations but to have a business associate arrange the 2 PMs meetings has an underlying conflict of interest.”
It does have apparently, and others have joined in. Senior PPP leader, Aitzaz Ahsan tweeted: “People of Pakistan will not tolerate any sale of Pakistan’s national institutions to any Jindal, Tata or Makhtoom family.”
Such allegations have not been levelled on PM Sharif for the first time. He has often been accused by the opposition of running Pakistan in ways that foster his own business interests. The lavish meal thrown by him to his Indian counterpart was another point that raised issues.
Senator Nehal Hashmi, affiliated with PML-N, however finds this blame game ridiculous.
“What will the Opposition do if it won’t criticise PM Nawaz anyway?” he questioned.
“If it starts praising, what kind of opposition would it be? But many times, they even raise issues that clash with the broader national interest. This is unfortunate. As a gesture of diplomacy, obviously we had to be hospitable toward the Indians.”
Moreover, no matter how much criticism the opposition levels about a possible deal behind closed doors, no one can present any sustainable and material evidence in this regard.
“Is there any official documentation of a business deal?” Hashmi raised another concern on the spiteful rhetoric of the opposition. “No there is not. Have they signed some document? Whenever two premiers meet, fortunately or unfortunately, deliberately or accidentally, the meeting is arranged by various means or persons. And this is good. This is a form of diplomacy.”
So this is amusing. The entire country is being very vocal about how a business deal is underway, and how the unnecessary lavish meal could be avoided. Hashmi’s statements flatly imply that the public is being a bit too spiteful.
However, Kasuri – in spite of the fact that he does not belong to PML-N – thinks that this was a positive development in terms of diplomacy.
“I welcome this development, as it gives a hope for normalising of relationship between the two countries,” he opined.
So there is criticism. The accusations are there that Jindal and Sharif being the iron men of their respective countries had a clandestine agenda. However, this could be more of a diplomatic gesture, in which Jindal was just acting as a facilitator. The reality will become apparent with time.
Pakistan’s paradigm shift
Pakistan has always been strategic ally of the West in the past, and in this desire has often tended to ignore its neighbourhood and regional dynamics. However, a recent paradigm shift can be observed.
Hashmi pointed this out.
“For the first time that we are not looking for aid from the West,” he stated. “We are exploring trade potential in the region. Our points of interest are Central Asia, China, Turkey, and now India as well. This is a great initiative and a paradigm shift by the government.”
While US and Europe had formed regional alliances eons ago, South Asia was always conflict-laden. However, if Nehal Hashmi’s words are mused upon, then maybe this meeting can be looked from another perspective. Maybe the two countries finally understand the significance of regional dynamics, and are eager to work on it. How successfully it goes will be evident in the near future.
Backchannel and future prospects
The important question while analysing any event is regarding its future prospects. What impact would this surprise event have on the future of South Asia and what will it lead to?
Whatever track of diplomacy is followed, Pakistan and India have to talk. They just don’t have any other option
Anyone aware of the ABC of diplomacy knows that to negotiate on equal footing, the two parties have to be of equal stature. The question is that can we consider ourselves to be of equal stature as India. Can we really hope for any fruits of the diplomatic process that will supposedly resume in the wake of this “master-stroke?”
Senator Hashmi thinks that despite certain differences, we are no less than India in certain aspects.
“India has better volumes than us in some aspects,” he confidently said. “But we do have equal standing in certain terms as well. We both are nuclear powers. We both are agrarian-based economies. So, yes with respect to these factors, we can negotiate.”
Another question that one finds oneself asking is whether this brief stopover can even be considered of any significance; especially since there was no defined agenda.
At times, certain steps are not a huge achievement per se, but they are important milestones due to symbolic and signalling reasons.
“Obviously this meeting was important,” Hashmi gave his opinion. “As it sent a gesture to the world that we are no terrorists, and we are a prosperous nation where the Indian prime minister lands, and then moves on. Again, it has been decided that foreign secretary level talks will take place in mid-January, which is good.”
Another important thought that one finds facing is this meeting cannot really be sudden, given the situation of Pak-India ties. Maybe some backchannel diplomacy was going on earlier. Kasuri has clearly stated in his book that the backchannel can achieve great things. When asked about this meeting, in regards to backchannel, he had insightful comments.
“Coming to backchannel diplomacy, in my time even we were not doing anything privately,” he answered. “We were just looking for a framework that we could safely propose to our respective cabinets. However, for backchannel diplomacy to work, it is important that whoever is selected should have the ear of the PM, and should be able to call the PM directly without any intermediary. It was a good experiment back then and we had almost agreed on a framework for Kashmir.”
However, one thing is certain. Whatever track of diplomacy is followed, Pakistan and India have to talk. They just don’t have any other options as Mr Kasuri commented. “They will have to talk about the issues.”
So let us just stop wondering about the chemistry and physics of the recent event, and hope that our governments now plan some meaningful diplomatic process. A stop over was important for breaking the ice, but broken ice is not all unless some real action follows in the near future. A sincere effort to resolve disputes can start a new chapter in the history of the two traditional rivals.
