One more time
It is not a good sign that talks about negotiating with the Taliban are beginning with Kabul and Islamabad contradicting each other. Sartaj Aziz tells us now that the initial four-country – Pakistan, Afghanistan, America, China – talks regarding modalities for moving forward will be held “between January 10 and 15” in Islamabad. For some reason the Afghans believed the venue would be Kabul; and told the world as much. Anyhow, getting to the first round will be the least of the hurdles. The road ahead is littered with complications and there is only a thin chance, in reality, of real peace being achieved.
The Taliban have followed their landmark Spring Offensive with another novelty; the fighting did not stop for the usual ‘winter lull’. It has, in fact, increased, with the insurgents again threatening taking key towns, like Helmand. Afghanistan’s own army has been handling the war for exactly one year this month; and the results have been far from encouraging. Still, if the two sides can somehow be pushed to talk seriously, finding common ground regarding governance, power-sharing, etc, will be another nightmare. The Taliban reject the present constitution as well as representative government. So points of convergence will not exactly present themselves.
Also, it does not help that top Nato and US commanders are hinting at asking for more troops for a longer period than already announced. The Taliban have long said they would not talk until the “invaders” leave. But they are also best by internal breakdown, a power struggle, and stiff opposition from Da’ish. All negotiating parties will remind them, also, that they can never take Kabul again; come what may. And unless a mid-way solution is found, the only assured result is more Afghans dying. After three and a half decades of war – of which ironically only the Taliban era was largely without conflict or invasion – there is a growing feeling that all parties would want to stop the fight, at least for now. The Americans will ultimately go and the region will have to handle the fallout. It would be better, of course, of mistakes of the past are not repeated.
