Pakistan 2015 and Modi’s visit

December 29, 2015

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Is there more than meets the eye?

Pakistan had a challenging 2015 marked by issues pertaining to internal and external dynamics demanding some smart problem solving and diplomatic acumen. On the domestic front, electricity and gas shortages, failure of government to address the issues of the common man, unemployment, inflation, and taxation structure that does not include certain taxpayer groups, health and education were put on the backbench, while corruption remains high. War on Terror showed a greater degree of success but we saw a standoff between the Sindh government and the federal setup over power of Rangers leading to a situation of instability.

Historical political disputes and instability have led to low investment in the country. Textile export earnings have suffered owing to electricity shortages directly affecting production levels and failure of the country to expand its export base for the manufacturers. Whereas Exim Bank of China enters an agreement with Chief Minister Punjab office for Rs162b loan agreement and billions have been allocated for Orange Line Project, the sad fact is that basic amentias of healthcare are lacking for the common man. The VIP culture and protocol has caused deaths on the road and justice for the common man remains a distant dream.

The brownie point has been the fall in acts of terrorism within the country as we saw them peak in 2012.

An interesting development took place ending 2015 that has completely (in my opinion) been misread by the media. This incident was Modi’s brief visit to Pakistan on his way back from Afghanistan. The Pakistani and Indian media has gone gaga over Modi’s visit forgetting his strongly anti-Pakistan remarks in Afghanistan hours before coming to Pakistan. “Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a statement against Pakistan over terrorism issue in Kabul; after that he reached Pakistan and apologised to Pakistan.” Earlier, in August last year, Pakistan Foreign Office had commented upon the negative comments against Pakistan. In early June last year, Modi blamed Pakistan for spreading terrorism in India. A few days later during his visit to Bangladesh in the same month, “Modi had admitted that India played a part in the break-up of Pakistan in 1971 Liberation War. He had said that he was proud that Indian troops sacrificed themselves for the liberation of Bangladesh.” (IBN Live, Bangladesh, June 16, 2015) In August 2015, Indian Prime Minister again attacked Pakistan for terrorism remarks at the packed Dubai Cricket Stadium with over 40,000 people.

Then he visits Pakistan, coinciding with Sharif’s birthday and the wedding of his granddaughter. “Earlier in the day, Pakistani Foreign Ministry Spokesman Qazi Khalilullah said India had informed Pakistan about the visit on Friday. He refused to share any further details.” (Yahoo News, 25 December, 2015) The visit interestingly also coincided with the presence of Sajjan Jindal in Lahore at that particular juncture. Is Jindal behind this ‘birthday diplomacy’ as it is being dubbed? “According to the details, it is not the first time Sajjan Jindal has been associated with Nawaz Sharif, nor is it the first time his name appeared as the facilitator of a meeting between Modi and Sharif. Sajjan Jindal has been a controversial figure in Pakistan. When Nawaz Sharif visited Delhi last May to attend Modi’s inauguration, he accepted an invite from Sajjan Jindal and visited his house with his son.

“An Indian journalist Barkha Dutt claims in her book The Unquiet Land: Stories from India’s Fault Lines that last November Modi and Nawaz Sharif met for an hour in Kathmandu during the SAARC summit. The alleged meeting, which was held secretly, lasted for an hour. Both the leaders agreed to keep talking informally. According to Barkha Dutt, the meeting was held in Sajjan Jindal’s hotel room. So, Sajjan Jindal has been acting as an informal messenger between the two leaders. Jindals are second largest steel manufacturers in India and are interested in procuring high quality but cheap iron ore from Afghanistan.” (A news website, December 25, 2015) States ABP Live, “Industrialist Sajjan Jindal, who is alleged to have facilitated a meeting between Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif in Kathmandu last year, was once again at hand in Lahore when the Prime Minister’s entourage made a surprise stopover on the way back from the two-day summit talks in Russia. “In Lahore to greet PM Nawaz Sharif on his birthday,” Jindal tweeted. (December 26, 2015)

However, let us widen the landscape here to view the bigger canvas. A friend wrote to me, “When analysing Modi’s visit, do consider Putin’s difficulties, the Indian connection and where we fit into that quagmire.” Indeed. Pakistan was added to the Saudi Arabia’s alliance of 34 out of which only two countries have mentionable armies i.e., Pakistan and Turkey. None of these in the ‘alliance’ are Shia governed nations. Of course, it does not suit Russia at this time in history to have Pakistan on the other side of the fence in the current Syrian scenario.

There was an impression that Russo-India relations were cooling somewhat with the warming of latter’s relationship with the USA. Russia does not afford at this point to lose old allies. In fact, its interest is in making new ones. In December 2015, Modi visited Russia for the 16^th India-Russian Annual Summit. It was a red carpet moment for the man blamed for the death of 2,000 Muslims in Gujarat, India. Gifts of value were presented to Modi. “Russian President Vladimir Putin has gifted Prime Minister Narendra an 18th century sword from Bengal and a page from Mahatma Gandhi’s diary containing his handwritten notes.” (The Indian Express December 25, 2015) India has also agreed to provide sites in two cities to establish 12 nuclear power plants as the second Russian-built power plant – Kudankulam power plant – nears date of commission.’

Nothing in the stance of Narendra Modi, ever since he came in power, indicate love for Pakistan. Another friend, the learned Barrister Iftikhar, commenting on Modi’s visit wrote, “It is Putin’s stroke. Saudi Arabia’s nonsensical dramatics of making an alliance that includes Pakistan gave rise to this. Russia has to stop the impression of widespread grouping against Bashar al Assad. The speed with which India made overtures within the span of few weeks and Russia showering goodies at India can only lead me believe this.” Yet another message says, “When Modi in his speech a few hours before in Kabul accuses Pakistan indirectly of creating trouble in Afghanistan, then what future are we looking at? Modi’s outlook towards us remained unchanged just before he landed in Lahore. Therefore, his overtures, by his visit and body language in Lahore, are absolutely the opposite. So what can one conclude from this backdrop?”

Let us also bear in mind that Putin is likely to visit Pakistan in February 2016 ‘for the groundbreaking ceremony of $2 billion LNG pipeline project from Karachi to Lahore as confirmed by Russian Energy Minister.’ (Trade Today, December 5, 2015)

The timeline of actions discussed above brings to question claims made by the media looking at Modi’s visit as a U-turn in his Pakistan policy. “…with his flash of spontaneous personal diplomacy on Friday, Mr Modi appeared to send a strong public message that the ambiguous course he has taken toward Pakistan has shifted to embrace engagement, not confrontation. It is a message that his administration has hinted at in recent weeks, seeking to sketch out a roadmap for talks with Pakistan on terrorism and trade”. (NYT, December 25, 2015)

Is it? Or is there more than meets the eye? All indications point towards the latter.