The Nawaz-Modi meet

Will the brief sojourn deliver?

The much-awaited surprise for both Indians and Pakistanis came from an abruptly planned sojourn by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Media claims that Mr Modi had called his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif to congratulate him on his birthday but Mr Sharif grabbed the occasion into an opportunity by inviting Mr Modi to his residence at Jati Umra, Raiwind.

However, we must understand that the brief stopover by Indian premier was not as abrupt, rather it was a result of long behind-the-scenes contacts by diplomats and private citizens to pave the way for the trip.

The brief visit has rekindled new hopes for the revival of dialogue process between archrivals India and Pakistan to help resolve all outstanding issues. While the visit brought a pleasant surprise for many across the country, the meeting has equally raised some new expectations and doubts.

The change of heart by Modi also reflects a change in the strategy of the Indian regime to deal with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This is the same premier who recently told Chinese leadership not to go ahead with CPEC as India might offer better trade options for China.

Indian ministers changed tone soon afterwards and hurled veiled threats against CPEC, claiming India would do whatever it can to jeopardise the CPEC which, according to them, was passing through Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.

However, when the Chinese leadership shrugged off the Indian threats and temptations, it seems Mr Modi has decided to try an alternate option by wooing Prime Minister Sharif with rosy promises. It would be wise for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to be cautious as there might be a wolf in a lamb’s clothing. Keeping in view the successful overtures by Indian diplomats, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif needs to be extra cautious before making any commitment with the Indian leadership. Rather, any decision must be taken after thorough homework taking onboard all the stakeholders.

Moreover, a brief visit is true reflection of Mr Modi’s adventurist nature and non-serious but cosmetic approach towards Pakistan. The improvement in personal equation between both prime ministers is nothing new as Prime Minister Sharif had also attended premier Modi’s oath-taking ceremony — a gesture reciprocated by Mr Modi only after a lapse of around two years.

As it appears such ‘cosmetic gestures’ by the Indian prime minister will fail to impress Pakistan and its leadership in order to convince them that India is sincere in improving relations with Pakistan.

The timing of the visit has raised many eyebrows as Lahore was not the destination of Indian premier’s visit, it was just a stopover on his way back to India. It seems Mr Modi’s brief and surprise drop at Lahore while coming from Kabul was aimed at creating goodwill amongst the pro-India lobby in Afghanistan and securing India’s role and relevance in Afghan imbroglio.

However, it has triggered doubts among Pakistan’s establishment as India has long been demanding a strategic role in Afghanistan which has always been objected at strongly by Pakistan.

In the past, Pakistan had also reached out to the US with a request to persuade India to refrain from maintaining a security footprint in neighbouring Afghanistan where Pakistan has longtime strategic interests. But India broke an unwritten rule about not supplying offensive equipment to Afghanistan this year by providing the first three Mi-25 attack helicopters to Kabul — a move which has triggered anger and skepticism in Islamabad. Moreover, while Modi was speaking butter and honey in Raiwind, he had spewed venom against Pakistan the same day while addressing Afghan Parliament before boarding his flight to Lahore.

In his speech, Modi on Friday made a pointed reference to terrorism coming from across the border:

“Afghanistan will succeed only when terrorism no longer flows across the border, when nurseries and sanctuaries of terrorism are shut, and their patrons are no longer in business,” Modi said, adding, “Terror and violence cannot be the instrument to shape Afghanistan’s future or dictate the choices Afghans make.”

This dichotomy would lead the Indian government nowhere. The Lahore visit came when entire India has been witnessing an unnecessary anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan hysteria and India was fast becoming a laughing stock domestically as well as internationally, thanks to the extremist forces, the likes of Shiv Sena and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

Though it would be inappropriate to comment over the future prospects of Pak-India relations, one can assume that both Nawaz Sharif and Modi have decided to defeat hawks domestically and prove a point to the key international players, the United States (US), China and United Kingdom (UK).

Seasoned analyst on Pakistan-India relations Hasan Askari Rizvi views the visit as a step towards normalising bilateral relations between the two neighbours.

“Such personal and informal meetings don’t solve the problems, but such personal engagements definitely help improve political environment for dialogue. They also lower the level of tensions and create enabling environment to revive dialogue process,” he added.

Mr Rizvi however asserted that such personal interactions do not guarantee resolution of problems.

“Such meetings are mere gestures, not a solution. Such meetings can help bring relative calm at the Line of Control (LoC) and engagement level between the two nations can be improved. Humanitarian issues might also be resolved but technical problems and conflicts need serious and continuous engagement and sagacity,” added Mr Rizvi.

Asked to comment on how the two countries can avoid a threat for a nuclear war, Hasan Askari Rizvi said that international players like US, China and Russia were deeply concerned over the possibility of a limited nuclear war between Pakistan and India.

“The world powers know that both India and Pakistan have developed small-scale nuclear arms. So the world powers are concerned that any border clash may trigger a small scale nuclear war. Hence, there has been an immense international pressure over India to engage with Pakistan which is willing to talk,” he added.

Rizvi also clarified that Pakistan’s military establishment was also on board on Modi’s trip.

“Army and Nawaz Sharif are on the same page vis-a-vis Modi’s visit and engagement with India. But military leadership wants these personal meetings to translate into a breakthrough in conflict resolution. Unilateral concessions from Pakistan to India would strongly be resisted by army. At least Prime Minister Modi needs to resolve breakthrough on minor issues like Sir Creek, Siachen, etc where agreements have long been reached,” he added.

Hawks, however, see no immediate breakthrough out of the brief visit.

Air Marshal (retd) Shahid Latif, while commenting over the Modi’s visit, said that the personal engagements between both the prime ministers reflected that personal agendas were being given preference over national interests.

“It would be good if these meetings translate into deliverance on long standing issues, but what we see here are personal objectives being persuaded,” said the retired air force chief, adding that he did not see any immediate result out of such meetings.

“You saw PM Nawaz Sharif attended the oath taking ceremony of premier Modi which was not reciprocated by Modi later. Then we witnessed Ufa talks where Kashmir was totally ignored. Here again, we saw gifts were exchanged but there is no positive outcome yet,” he added.

Shahid Latif said he believed that Modi’s visit was planned through backchannels, not by diplomatic channels but a business tycoon Sajeet Jindal had planned it who also attended the unofficial meeting at Raiwind. We also heard of a secret meeting in Khatmandu. So one really wonders if business interests are driving Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif,” argued Mr Latif.

Sajeet Jindal is an Indian steel tycoon who has very close relations with the Sharif family. He owns a steel mill in Belarus, the country Prime Minister Sharif recently visited. Mr Jindal is very close to son of the prime minister and featured in two successive meetings held between Premier Modi and Nawaz Sharif. He is also credited as a backchannel source between the two premiers. He is also attending the wedding ceremony of Prime Minister Sharif’s granddaughter at Raiwind.

Asked what had led to this meeting, Shahid Latif said that perhaps Mr Modi had been forced by domestic and international players and circumstances.

“We have to wait and see whether the upcoming foreign secretary-level talks would make any breakthrough. The meeting would again expose the Indian agenda,” added the former fighter pilot who participated in wars fought against India.

Whatever the objectives of the visit by Mr Modi would be, the situation warrants that Pakistani leadership should adopt a cautious and calculated approach and avoid commitments or attaching high expectations, keeping in view that Modi’s traditional tactics generally remain shallow.

It seems as if Mr Modi is trying to fool the international community by using the surprise visit to Pakistan as a gesture to project that India is ready to resume talks and improve relations with Pakistan, while attempting to belittle the role and importance of Pakistan in the region through this brief visit.

Pakistan, however, should not be impressed by such adventurism and cosmetic approaches. The same Indian leadership had refused to play cricket with Pakistan, but now they are using this surprise and brief visit to project their seriousness in improving relations with Pakistan. The Indian leadership must realise that bilateral relations revolve around reciprocity and seriousness in their efforts to improve the same.