The good year

Future projections

Come end-December, it is time to take stock of the year that was and to make projections for the one ahead. Unlike most of the period in Pakistan’s tumultuous history, 2015 was a year of relative calm and consolidation.

First the positives: Post December 16, 2014, the nation seemed to be united to collectively remove the existential threat of terrorism. The Taliban attack on Army Public School in Peshawar proved to be a watershed in the ruling elite’s erstwhile benign approach in dealing with terrorism perpetrated in the name of religion.

Through the apex committees formed at the federal level and in the provinces, the military and the civilian leadership embarked on a seamless putsch against the jihadists out to destroy Pakistan. Admittedly a lot needs to be done. Nonetheless substantial progress has been made.

Pakistan is a much safer place to live than it was a year ago. Barring a few brazen occurrences, incidents of terrorism substantially came down in numbers as well as intensity during the year.

That does not mean that the war against terrorists of all hues and colours has been decisively won. Unless the root causes of terrorism are removed, this will remain a pyrrhic victory. The snake has been scorched but not killed, and hence is potentially more dangerous.

Under the National Action Plan (NAP) the state has to move against those spreading hatred in the name of religion, and madrassas serving as training grounds for terrorists and preaching sectarianism. To the extent of paying lip service there is talk about changing the so called narrative. But ground realities speak for themselves.

Admittedly, however, some progress has been made in the past few months. But a lot must still be done in order to make a real difference.

Of course economic progress is a sine qua non for reducing poverty. During the year there has been substantial economic consolidation, but the country’s vital statistics remained dismal. Without increased expenditure on the social sector the war against obscurantism simply cannot be won.

Post December 16, 2014, the nation seemed to be united to collectively remove the existential threat of terrorism

On the macro level the budgetary deficit was reduced, foreign exchange reserves increased substantially and thanks to a record dip in international oil prices inflation remained markedly low. However, on the flip side, exports plummeted, tax revenues targets could not be achieved and tax-to-GDP ratio remained dismal.

The popular perception is that the economic czar Ishaq Dar is more interested in meeting IMF preconditions than providing a vision for robust economic growth. Although it is claimed that the estimated GDP growth of 4.5 percent is highest in seven years, it falls well short of what is required to combat poverty in a meaningful way.

The government was stuck on increasing power capacity by launching coal and gas fuelled power projects, mostly with Chinese investment. During the year, motorways and metro trains emerged as the favourite hobby horse of the Sharif brothers. It seems that in 2015 the PML-N government’s economic priorities were clearly geared towards winning the next elections.

Unless the state reorients its economic priorities there is little hope of embarking on a path to remove the root causes of terrorism. During the year there was almost negligible movement in this direction.

The CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) signed earlier during the year is a big feather in Pakistan’s cap. Not only the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st century Maritime Silk Road, also known as one belt, one road, will bring over US$50 billion Chinese investment in Pakistan, but would also accrue enormous strategic advantages for Pakistan.

The year saw Islamabad’s regional as well as international isolation coming to an end. Not only relations with the US and Europe saw a marked improvement, but after years of frost ties with Russia stabilised as well.

A surprise thaw with New Delhi at the end of the year after tense relations throughout 2015 was another welcome development. Perhaps there is a belated realisation on both sides of the divide that without better ties between the two largest neighbours of South Asia the dream of economic prosperity for the teeming millions will remain elusive.

Unlike the tumultuous 2014 — marred by Imran Khan’s dharna and Tahir-ul-Qadri’s disruptive politics — this year has been politically good for the PML-N. There have been no major challenges for the ruling party at the federal level and in Punjab, barring its relations with the military.

Nawaz Sharif has been meeting the COAS General Raheel Sharif quite frequently. In fact the prime minister presiding over meetings with the army chief in attendance — or one-on-one meetings with the khaki Sharif — far outnumber the cabinet meetings held by him.

Politically, the PML-N government has consolidated its position over the year

Despite the ostensible display of bonhomie, differences on implementation of NAP between the civilian and military leadership remained a sore point. The military, obviously not satisfied with the pace of reforms envisaged under the Plan, first quietly expressed its reservations to the civilian leadership, and later through a corps commanders meeting presser that went public.

Of course another related question that loomed large over the year was the increased and more pronounced footprint of the military. The widely held perception gained even more currency that space for the civilian setup was perceptibly shrinking.

The crisis in Sindh over empowering the Rangers in Karachi was exacerbated by the reluctance shown by the provincial government to give the paramilitary force a carte blanche in the mega polis.

Of course the PML-N government faces an obvious conundrum. It does not want to be seen to be giving unfettered powers to the military. On the flip side, however, the federal government cannot afford to alienate the powerful military.

Politically, the PML-N government has consolidated its position over the year. It has won most of the by-elections as well as has been able to trounce its main rival PTI in the first party based local bodies elections. The party is poised to win the next general elections with its home base Punjab firmly secure.

In the backdrop of 2015 bigger challenges lie ahead for the new year. Main Nawaz Sharif should make a New Year resolution of his own: he has been prime minister three times. Now is the time to serve his people and leave a legacy for posterity instead of merely trying to perpetuate himself by perfecting the winning formula.