Swinging again
So, quite predictably, the Afghans are open to talks again – at least on the surface. No doubt the ascendant insurgency, and the effect it is having on Nato and Nato-trained Afghan forces, has forced Kabul’s hand. The Taliban not only recorded the strongest Spring Offensive on record when the year began, but are also ending it on a novelty. The fighting is not subsiding for the traditional winter lull – when snow and harsh weather put a hold on things till spring.
The fighting is, in fact, increasing, not only around Kabul but also in opium territory Helmand, where according to latest reports only two of 14 districts remain in government hands. There are also reports of acute food shortage with not only the people suffering, but besieged soldiers also reportedly begging for food. This must have set off Kunduz like alarm bells in Kabul, even if the Ghani government is still putting up a straight face and saying all is well. The killing of six Nato soldiers, along with six Afghan army-men, in Bagram is another game changer. So far Kabul seemed to have gambled on the Taliban breaking from within – with the leadership struggle and the fight against ISIS. But with these latest attacks, it has wisely given into to American, and Chinese, pressure and apparently accepted the talks.
All eyes will now be on Gen Raheel’s visit to Kabul this week. All stakeholders must first focus on finding common ground from where the process can move forward and gain momentum instead of expecting an immediate end to this long war. True, Pakistan can bring the Taliban to the talks. But with their gains on the ground, and the fact that not all military commanders will ever be on board, there will need to be careful calculation and give-and-take to make the process proceed. For now, getting everybody on the negotiating table will be more than a small victory, provided they agree to meet again and then honour that promise. At least the AfPak pendulum is swinging again.
