Rangers, MQM, PPP and Karachi

The good, the bad, the ugly and the rabbit hole

Chiragh sab ke bujhainge, hawa kisi ki nahi

(Everyone’s lamp may go out; the blowing wind belongs to none)

When Khwaja Izharul Hassan repeated this latter part of a famous verse on Dec 11, 2015, he obviously had PPP in mind which is apparently in the eye of the storm at present. And although it is a matter of conjecture to decipher fully what really he did mean by ‘sab’ and the ‘wind being its own’, looking at the larger canvas that is stretched from North Waziristan to Karachi the ‘sab’ here literally seems all-encompassing and the ‘blowing wind’ well above the forces he actually meant.

Just try to understand the situation in Karachi or Sindh as a whole by trying to answer the following questions: Why is the PPP government in Sindh delaying approval of extension in the special policing powers of Rangers? What is this Dr Asim Hussain’s saga and why is he being snatched by one agency from another like a dead animal? Why has the government of Sindh decided to bring the Rangers power extension issue to the assembly? And if you still have a somewhat comprehensible picture in your mind about what is happening in Karachi, try this one last question; why has the MQM taken the unexpected summersault by declaring that it will oppose any government resolution if it was aimed at reducing the powers of Rangers regarding white color, corruption affairs?

Yes, now you have reached the near-perfect confusion; welcome to Karachi.

Why the delay?

There are two plausible explanations that can be offered to put into place the PPP’s decision to make the extension in Rangers’ policing powers conditional to the approval of the provincial assembly. One of these is a bit academic or theoretical while the other is based on the real situation that is currently unfolding on the ground.

But to take the latter one first, it seems the PPP was waiting to stop the Rangers’ overstepping into corruption matters without its consent. But things wouldn’t have gone so bad were PPP not coming under the knife of the Rangers in the garb of clamping down on ‘terror financing’ and ‘financial corruption’. Further, the PPP might have been left with no other option were something of the sort seen happening in other provinces or at the federal level. Seeing the Damocles’ Sword falling on its head – mostly in the shape of public corruption charges and media trials against its leadership – with Dr Asim Hussain’s ordeal just as a starter – it seems to have reached the conclusion that it’s time to throw a spanner in the Rangers’ works that according to the PPP leadership were selectively aimed at its leadership. In a nutshell, the reaction of the party fits into the standardized PTI and media’s mantras of saving the skins of its corrupt leadership and endangering the whole system for one or two corrupt persons.

The other, somewhat theoretical, explanation is that PPP was waiting for an opportune moment to strike back at the military establishment’s contentious onslaught against civilian political citadel. That moment, Asif Zardari or PPP thought to have arrived when; a) some of the army-led initiatives met with stumbling blocks recently and, b) the MQM swept the Karachi local elections. Though its calculations on one count were right, PPP leadership couldn’t have erred more about what it expected from MQM on Rangers’ extension issue. And though, under the current circumstances the PPP, can’t be blamed for the misjudgment, the MQM has done nothing new; it has kept alive one of its old traditions of jumping into the establishment’s lap – but this time, in the most unlikely of circumstance.

The PPP’s decision to bring the matter to the assembly, therefore, was based on the assumption that the establishment was not in a position to thrust things down its throat on gunpoint; and that the MQM will stand by its side in making the Rangers eat the civilian dust and realize its raison d’être in the city. Alas, it wasn’t to be. What actually happened was that the MQM scored a political point from the start after winning local elections in Karachi, setting political theme for the foreseeable future as far as the city of Karachi and relations between PPP and MQM are concerned. And second, it deepened the existing cleavage between the military establishment and Pakistan People’s Party.

In the meanwhile, the federal government tried to walk a tight rope and demonstrate a semblance of neutrality in the standoff between the above-mentioned two entities. But it was only up to the moment when the federal government decided to go public and tell its side of the story to the press through Ch Nisar on Saturday evening who, in a way, hurled threats at Sindh government and accused it of humiliating a respectable federal agency for the sake of ‘just one man’.

Till then Nawaz Sharif’s government appeared sympathetic towards PPP. Or it was non-committal in the tug of war between Rangers and the provincial government; on the one hand, it did nothing to aggravate the situation for its political comrade and on the other, it activated NAB against Dr Asim Hussain when push from the Rangers came to shove. Relations between PPP and PML-N further deteriorated when Maula Bux Chandio, Sindh Chief Minister’s Advisor on Information replied to the Interior Minister in even harsher tone and tenor.

But the biggest of all surprises in this drama full of suspense and confusion was the stand of the MQM which came out to be not only totally opposite to that of the PPP but which also smacked of a tilt towards the military establishment. And, why not? The MQM and its leadership know fully what it has lost during its time in the wilderness which started with the stream of invectives that Mr Altaf Hussain let out against the army generals back in September, 2014. They cannot afford politically to travel off the beaten path; and the beaten path for them, and most of the political players for that matter, is to invite the powers that be to cuddle them once more (Ao… Rangers walo, MQM ko gale laga lo, as Altaf Hussain reportedly invited Rangers in a – banned on media — speech to his supporters on Dec 10).

No wonder, MQM’s Leader of the Opposition in Sindh Assembly made two basic demands of the government; grant all powers to Rangers, and deploy them in the whole of Sindh. Well, it goes without saying that it’s like stepping on an already agitated dog’s tail. It’s because these were the TWO things that the PPP’s didn’t want the Rangers (read, military) to poke its nose in, and that is why the PPP government has been insisting to bring a resolution in the assembly to stop the paramilitary agency from doing these two things; and make it behave also.

Izharul Hasan says, no ‘farmaishi programme’ anymore. There will be either Rangers all over, with all the powers; or no Rangers at all, he declared adding, they won’t allow any MQM specific witch-hunt further. ‘We will not support any resolution that will allow people of other parties, charged of corruption, to go scot-free’.

The question now is; will the military establishment be allured by these goodwill gestures of an estranged lover? And will it opt for a rapprochement with it? But, if yes, why?

Because, there are so many good and bad reasons to do that.

The MQM has come back with an unambiguous popular mandate that can neither be wished away nor trampled under the boots – no matter how big, black and heavy they are. The offshore cases against Altaf Bhai have, for the time being, come to a dead-end. The host country – where the cause of action arose – may not like to be seen in cahoots with the ‘ever-repressing’ Pakistani establishment to finish off a freshly mandated, legitimate elected leader or leaders of MQM. Pakistan, on the other hand, won’t budge to let go of the bargaining chips (the three accused in Imran Farooq murder case) without something worthwhile in return. In any case that will strip Pakistan of the pressure tools that can still bend a big fat neck to bend (as can be seen in the recent MQM gestures and Altaf Hussain’s statement).

The electoral victory alone may not be as effective in saving that one neck; the bargaining chips may not be as admissible legally (and practically) to break it. So, it will be mutually beneficial to accommodate each other and agree on some give and take; ‘I let you live twice, you promise peace. And remember don’t ever play with bad boys again. Okay? And let me register a against those three bad boys here.’

The obtaining situation seems tilting in favour of ‘doing nothing’ by all the concerned parties; MQM may not get away with a stubborn or antagonistic attitude towards the establishment – as ‘they’ still have something up its sleeves; the establishment may not now get what they want exactly by going the old ways; the British government may not like to be associated with undemocratic means ‘just for nothing’; and the PPP…  Well! The case with PPP is slightly different.

They apparently have landed themselves in a bad situation out of its own will. No one nudged them to make the Rangers’ redeployment conditional to the assembly’s approval. They should have guessed what can be MQM’s possible behaviour. A looser can’t offer anything meaningful. Why should MQM have stood with it? But has the PPP made the miscalculation inadvertently or it has entered the rabbit hole under a well thought-out and deliberate policy (in the face of the clear and present danger) aiming to become a political martyr once again.

Going by the presser held by Mr Chandio, it seems that the great minds within the PPP have deliberately chosen the path of self-destruction; the ‘inadvertent miscalculation’ in the instant case under the current circumstances could have been made by the real wise people, which this once-great party doesn’t possess at the moment – except the one who has run out of the country and who has no intention to come back and face the situation.

To sum the confusion up, the MQM is alleging PPP of a sin it hasn’t committed; the party protested Rangers’ transgression as much as possible under the then prevailing circumstances. But it was of no avail as the military was riding so high on the popularity tide. It hadn’t suffered any setback by then. But whether MQM current protestations against PPP’s are right or wrong, the PPP is subjecting PML (N) to the same allegations of betrayal. In both the cases, it was political expediency that seemed at play. And that’s the whole story of failure of politicians and democracy in this country. If the PPP continued with its present policy of ‘this-is-a-requirement-of-constitution-but-we-don’t –have-time-to-attend-to-it,’ Karachi will soon sink into the chaos it was drifting in just a while ago. And the blame will be laid entirely on its shoulders under which it may not be able to re-emerge.

It will be naivety of highest degree to think that the establishment and MQM are east and west and that the twain shall never meet. Ch Nisar’s Freudian slip that the Sindh should government should be more interested in bringing peace to the city of Karachi than MQM which has done nothing of the sort PPP is currently indulged in ‘despite its public reservations’, should be an eye-opener for all who think there can’t be a meeting of hearts once again between the military and the MQM. After all, everything will be hunky-dory in the city of Karachi when the twain will meet. And the PPP may become the odd-party-out even in its home province. It’s advisable they revisit their policies.

As for the military establishment and its even greater minds, it’s enough to say that they have to move on from tactical to strategic planning; from short-term to long-term thinking and from Raheel Sharif Zindabad to Long Live Democracy. At the moment, their seeming highhandedness, and a desire to correct things even if that means going out of the book, is making a hero of a person who is soaked in corruption from head to toe.

The rest is better to be understood without so many words.