How far we have come?
One year has passed since the tragic attack on Army Public School, Peshawar. For conscientious citizens, it is important to never forget that incident, which posed a threat to our national sovereignty. The militants are smart; they know hitting which spot will elicit the most horror. So APS Peshawar in this regard made sense for a target. However, the attack did backfire on them, as it mobilised the entire nation and the counter-insurgency struggles of Pakistan accelerated and enhanced manifold.
However, nothing in this world is perfect. This is the universal truth. And the same goes for our fight against militancy. While it is something to be lauded, the presence of loopholes cannot be denied. It has also led to our civil-military balance tilting even more toward the already dominant military. So, one year is a good time span to analyse how far we have actually come.
“I am not ready to say we are now irreversibly on track to fighting, beating and marginalising terrorists,” said Husain Haqqani, former Pakistani Ambassador to the United States.
“Their ideas are alive, their recruitment continues. The current efforts, though admirable, could be reversed under a future army chief or civilian government or by the sheer doggedness of jihadi groups.”
While Haqqani’s words may cause many in the pro-establishment lobby to be disgruntled on the grounds of not receiving absolute praise, they do represent the truth. It is therefore important to scan, monitor and evaluate the process more closely.
Scrutinising recent developments
One of the most important events that took place after APS attack was the formulation of the National Action Plan (NAP) entailing 20 points that aim to curb terrorism in totality. What it contains and does not contain has already been dissected extensively so let’s not even start debating. However, what actually is important is studying the developments on NAP and counter-insurgency fight.
Haqqani thinks that considerable progress has been made since the APS attack.
“Pakistan’s army has definitely stepped up military operations in the tribal areas since the APS Peshawar attack and Operation Zarb-e-Azb is a success.
But he still thinks we need to be careful about the permanence of this improvement.
“Pakistan is in a better place than before but similar steps have been taken and reversed before,” he added.
He also talked about the fact that delegitimising terrorism is the most important step, and giving excuses and selective targeting of some groups only will not do any good.
“Until the very idea of terrorism is delegitimised, we will not win the war against terrorism,” he asserted.
“New groups will be created with new recruits. Conspiracy theories and obsession with beating the world’s Goliaths with terrorism’s slingshot will persist.”
Nothing in this world is perfect. This is the universal truth. And the same goes for our fight against militancy
Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri, a former foreign minister of Pakistan, appreciates the fact that General Sharif declared a point of no return after APS and that NAP was formulated. However, he thinks more should have been done on NAP itself.
“NAP talks about reforming the education system as well,” he pointed out. “However, unfortunately, just one or two points of NAP are being worked on. Rest are being ignored. Even no significant progress has been made on NACTA.”
The fact though remains that work has undoubtedly been done. FATA had become a full-fledged sanctuary and has now improved considerably. Brig (r) Saad Muhammad talks about this.
“Arresting back the space the militants had occupied is a big achievement,” he asserted. “Most of their spots have been evacuated by the militants and they have now relocated on the other side of the border. Earlier it was the militants moving forward and the state receding, this has reversed now.”
Another noticeable event after APS has been lifting the moratorium on the death penalty. While many have condemned this, Pakistan has repeatedly argued in its favour. Brig Saad too thinks that this has been helpful. However, he does not consider the advantage to be absolute and unqualified.
“The death penalty has definitely instilled fear in some of the potential terrorists,” he said.
“However, there are others who are still motivated and their ideologues will pursue them. We have been able to deter quite a few though.”
But there are numerous questions that awarding the death penalty poses. Human rights violations and legalising killings are a major concern for many stakeholders.
“As a matter of principle, I cannot support the death penalty,” said Ali Arqam, a journalist and researcher based in Karachi.
“Killing is killing, whether by state or non-state actors. And these are not even seasoned terrorists who are being executed anyway.”
However, he is also aware of the improvement that has been seen after APS.
“In Peshawar alone, terrorism and kidnapping has reduced prominently. In Karachi, terrorism, extortion and anti-Shi’a violence have reduced.”
Debates apart, one thing remains certain. The fight against insurgency has definitely accelerated and has been catalysed after the attacks. The military apparatus specifically seems to have sworn revenge for the carnage of the innocent kids slaughtered mercilessly a year back.
AfPak conundrum and internal security
The biggest mistake Pakistan makes is considering the internal security situation in isolation. We fail to realise that the world is a global village now, and no country operates independent of others. The relationship between foreign policy and internal security is more pronounced now than ever before. And Pakistan lies in a region where its border with Afghanistan is not even fully acknowledged. The main problem which many acknowledge, including Kasuri, is the fact that Pakistan has not tilted its foreign policy significantly after the APS attack and has failed to realise the link of security and foreign policy.
“There is clear relationship between foreign policy and internal security, particularly in the world of today and particularly for Pakistan,” said Kasuri.
He further cited how security dilemmas have showed upon the diplomatic standing of KSA. “These days terrorism is the face of internal security. ISIS has imparted new thought, and relationship of internal security and foreign policy is prominent. Even KSA, who has been an ally of the west, is not being spared when it comes to security matters, therefore Pakistan needs to be careful as well.”
Pakistan is facing complications with Afghanistan, and according to the former foreign minister much of it is Pakistan’s own doing.
“I think we need to forget who is ruling Afghanistan,” Kasuri explained.
“The various doctrines of strategic depth and friendly Afghanistan do not hold true any longer. All we need is a stable Afghanistan, and that is very relevant for Pakistan’s internal security.”
Afghanistan sends in a lot of refugees, and many of the Afghan Pathans do not recognise the Durand Line. Moreover, the relocation of terrorists across the border poses security threats for Pakistan, and continues to do so after APS. The Badaber attack was presumably planned from across the border. But the two countries cannot do anything about it unless they overcome their mistrust. Part of Pakistan’s problems lie in the fact that Afghanistan shares close ties with India. Kasuri however wants the two countries to mould their foreign policy.
“Not many Pakistanis are aware that while inter-government relationships were never good, Pakistan and Afghanistan shared excellent people-to-people relations,” he revealed a fact that may come as a surprise to many.
“Pakistanis used to go to Kabul and they were always welcome. That is precisely why Pakistani welcomed Afghan refugees with open arms after the Soviet invasion.”
He further talked about the similarities.
“There are many common things between the two; culture, religion, geography, historical context,” he went on. “If we stop being concerned about who rules Afghanistan, the ties will improve naturally. Even Afghanistan knows that no country can substitute Pakistan for it.”
APS should have opened our eyes that a stable foreign policy is also the key to internal security. Seemingly, though, it hasn’t.
Civil-military imbalance
Another misfortune after APS has been the enhancement of civil-military imbalance. It was the army chief and not some civilian who visited Kabul after the attack. And again the army seems to be doing more work.
“The army seems to have taken the lead in counter-terrorism and also seems eager to take credit for this lead,” Haqqani pointed out.
“That does not augur well for the already entrenched civil-military imbalance. On the other hand, civilian leaders seem reluctant to shape policy and assert themselves.”
Important portfolios like foreign affairs are somehow being ceded to the military.
“When President Ghani visited Pakistan for the first time after being elected president, he visited the GHQ which was unexpected and an unprofessional thing,” said Ali Arqam. “But this shows his awareness of the fact that who holds the reins in Pakistan.”
Kasuri however thinks this is the result of civilian inefficiencies.
“The army has been compelled in these circumstances to assert itself. Pakistan cannot afford to move at snail’s pace in such times,” he said.
“Of course, vacuums cannot be tolerated. It’s very important to have a foreign minister. I do not doubt the professionalism of our foreign office, but in the absence of a foreign minister, space is being ceded to the military.”
And then there are these military courts that have elicited a lot of debate. Ali Arqam does not approve of them either. “Military courts were formed, but even the militants of Karachi were not taken there.”
It is important that we stay focused and keep our priorities right. The war is not over yet, it has just begun
He also highlighted how various setups were dominated by the military.
“The apex committees formed under 21st amendment do have elected institutions there as well, but the core commanders and security agencies are dominant there and manipulation happens,” he revealed.
“The military has created a parallel system. The balance was tilted even before APS, but it is even more so now. The democratic government does not have much say, and most of the democratic governments are family kingdoms anyway.”
Brig (r) Saad, however, thinks that this is not something as serious as is frequently lamented. “I do not see it that way,” he stated. “Military institutions are fast-paced and that’s where the difference arises. Civilians have not been ruling for a very long time. Let the civilian institutions go through reforms. Let people of merit come there, and things will improve. I know this is time-consuming but we have to be patient.”
So while many label the civil-military imbalance as undemocratic, there are many factors in our environment leading to this imbalance. It has become more pronounced in the wake of APS.
Where are we now?
While we are headed toward the right direction, we still get lost many times. Haqqani thinks that it is the overall approach that really matters.
“The failure to admit that the entire jihadi paradigm is wrong is the biggest weakness in Pakistan’s counter-terrorism approach,” he explained.
“Jihadis support each other. Attacking one group but hoping another will just become a political party means that we are allowing some jihadis to become dormant to fight another day.”
He also gave an elaboration of what has and has not been achieved.
“The terrorist base in North Waziristan has been uprooted,” he commented. “There have been some actions against sectarian terrorists, like the extra-judicial killing of Malik Ishaq. But there is no evidence that Pakistan has stopped making distinctions among terrorist groups and several terrorist groups, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Afghan Taliban, still flourish.”
Other stakeholders think that the policy makers are not keeping the big picture in mind.
“There is seriousness,” Ali Arqam acknowledged.
Brig (r) Saad elaborated this fact. “The counter-insurgency effort has many facets,” he stated. “Military is one and it has made certain progress. Other fronts are still slow; there has to be psychological warfare, search for root cause, certain reforms, and the analysis of dynamics. We need to adopt a more holistic approach.”
So it is important that we stay focused and keep our priorities right. The war is not over yet, it has just begun.