The region will have to rise up to the changing geo-political dynamics of the world
Obama’s call for countries around the world to take responsibility in the September 2015 address “No matter how powerful our military, how strong our economy, we understand the United States cannot solve the world’s problems alone” is a confession that the world has changed and is already drifting towards multilateralism. No single country dictates today’s economic, political and social realms. Climate change and growing terrorism has taken away the mandate to dictate policies on global governance. The world today is becoming more and more multi-polar and the roles of regional platforms can be very crucial. It is high time for South Asian countries to re-emphasise the role of SAARC and address their common agendas through mutual cooperation rather than conflict or coercion.
South Asia needs to refocus its attention towards more regional integration and economic cooperation. The changing geo-political dynamics, climate change effects and the upsurge in extremism and intolerance calls for a combined regional strategy to address the growing challenges that the region is facing. The role of SAARC has not been satisfactory to address regional matters such as trade, climate change mitigation, disaster management, counter-terrorism or peace building. The hegemonic ambitions of India and strained relations between India and Pakistan have been a major obstacle to make SAARC an effective platform.
There are three important dimensions of regional cooperation in South Asia: trade and regional economic development; disaster management and climate change mitigation; and terrorism and peace building. The sooner these countries realise that they can only rise above these challenges through mutual efforts, the easier it will be to boost to political and economic ties. Knowledge exchange, trade, renewable energy and infrastructure investments can help smaller countries in the region to overcome their structural constraints and improve access to larger markets. It can make SAARC a vibrant organisation thus making it more competitive for other regional blocs like ASEAN, NAFTA etc. Cross-border trade is especially important for smaller countries and for landlocked provinces/countries, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Northeast India and Northwest Pakistan.
Secondly, climate change poses a new challenge to the national security of South Asian countries and is assumed to be a greater threat than terrorism. Bangladesh is considered to be one of the most disaster prone regions in the world. Pakistan experienced its worst floods in 2010-11 and 2015 displacing millions and causing colossal damage to life and property. India has also incurred losses due to floods and heat waves in 2015. Agriculture in the South Asian region is caught in a low equilibrium trap with low productivity which can be a threat to food security. According to FAO, South Asian region has the highest concentration of undernourished (299 million) and about 40 percent of the world’s hungry. Though SAARC countries have established a food bank to meet the needs of food security in the region, it has not been operational even during times of crisis. South Asia remains as one of the highest food insecure regions in the world. Malnutrition can undermine economic growth and economic costs are substantial. Individuals lose more than 10 percent of lifetime earnings because of malnutrition. A country can lose up to 3 percent of GDP per year according to the World Bank (2014).
Thirdly, there is no effective mechanism for conflict resolution and peace building. Although terrorism and violent conflict remains a challenge among many of these states there is absolute lack of coordination in terms of evidence sharing or negotiation on this matter. SAARC has yet to develop institutions like a SAARC Parliament to broaden and legitimise its actions for peaceful resolution of political conflicts. As a result of security dilemma and the subsequent arms race in South Asia, countries here are dispensing large parts of their national economy to defence and military preparedness, especially India and Pakistan. The escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan and the absence of any regional forum to address these issues have created a vacuum as a result hostilities keep growing.
To sum up, South Asian regionalism and collective approach is impeded by elements that are within the institutional set up of SAARC; nationalist pulls and pressures; counterbalance strategies; intra-regional political and economic relations; rise of terrorism; and bilateral agreements among these countries and participation in multiple trading blocs (such as BIMSTEC, ASEAN etc.).
South Asian countries will have to rise up to the changing geo-political dynamics of the world and align their policies with the interest of people who need peace, prosperity and economic freedom. If the tensions keep growing, the opportunity for economic development will be lost. It’s high time for civil society, media and ordinary people of these countries to pressure their governments to pursue a policy of peace and economic cooperation instead of hostility and confrontation.