Pleasant surprise?
Now that the Bangkok surprise has settled in, the local press appears divided about how much to read into the NSA-level exchange. The more forward-looking bunch is calling it a ‘major breakthrough’, especially since India has had to back down from its extreme position, and agree to talk about Kashmir, among other things. Others, more circumspect, are doubtful about Modi toning down so easily. More will become clear, of course, when Ms Swaraj talks with Sartaj Aziz on the sidelines of the Heart of Asia conference. But for now, Bangkok is definitely a step forward and, with the benefit of hindsight, a new trend can be noted in the Pak-India exchange.
Sections of the press saying the Paris meeting was no chance encounter make more sense now. There seems a good deal of back-door and secret diplomacy at play, especially considering Indian journalist Barkha Dutt’s recent revelation about the secret Nawaz-Modi meeting in Kathmandu. Veterans of the last time serous progress was made with India – especially former Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri – have long advocated just such methods, particularly when the bilateral diplomatic situation is problematic. And, even though a return to composite dialogue is far away, the ball has once again been set rolling, at least.
Also, regardless of whether New Delhi resumes its extremist position at any point in the near future, the Paris and Bangkok meetings have vindicated Pakistan’s position. Just as was expected, Delhi could not keep up demands like excluding Hurriyet, dropping Kashmir, and only talking about security and terrorism. Even within India, the country’s diverse polity would never have tolerated such extremism for long. And with disappointments like the Bihar humiliation also creeping up, BJP is beginning to lose some of its election shine. The sequence of events seems to favour progress. Nawaz would want nothing more. And, considering Gen (r) Janjua’s advances, the brass seems satisfied enough as well. It will need all elements within both countries to push the process forward for the recent surprise to be a pleasant one in the long run.
