But all bets are off if Mullah Mansour dies
Brigadier (retd) Mahmood Shah is no stranger to the strange and conflicting dynamics that tore through Pakistan’s tribal area in the wake of the wider international war against terrorism. He has served, after his career in the army, as secretary for home and tribal affairs in the then frontier province, and later as secretary security for Fata. It was during his tenure that the government first started the campaign against al Qaeda and Taliban groups in the badlands.
Things have changed considerably since then, of course. Now Pakistan has the initiative in its own war against terrorism, and has once again become significant in the Afghan equation. The US, China, NATO, etc, are all, finally, interested in a negotiated settlement that would involve the Taliban. The only side not agreeing so far was Kabul, but now there is some progress to speak of.
DNA talked exclusively to him to understand more recent developments.
Question: How do you view the rumours about infighting among Afghan Taliban groups and reports about injuries and demise of Taliban Emir Mullah Akhtar Mansour?
Mahmood Shah: You know Mullah Akhtar Mansour heads the Afghan Taliban and most of the Taliban fighters have offered allegiance to him. What I have been informed is that last week two groups of Afghan Taliban had an argument over some issue which led to gunfire.
Since Mullah Akhtar Mansour, who unlike his predecessor Mullah Mohammad Umar, is an operation commander, he also suffered four bullets and got injured. But this incident happened somewhere in Afghanistan and not in Quetta as is being reported.
Now there are claims that Mullah Akhtar Mansour has succumbed to his injuries. But none of my sources is confirming these reports.
But if Mullah Akhtar Mansour has died, it would prove to be a major blow to the peace process as he enjoys great respect and reverence among Taliban fighters. His death would lead to more infighting and anarchy among the Taliban and they might not be able to unite on one platform.
Moreover, Mullah Akhtar Mansour is the person who strongly believed in dialogue. He was also the only person among the Taliban ranks who had some connections with Pakistan. So his demise would also end Pakistan’s clout among the Taliban fighters.
The death of Taliban’s supreme leader would lead to further infighting and grouping among Taliban ranks. It would also become more difficult to restart peace talks as the death of Mullah Mansour would create further bloodshed. So peace talks are not in sight in the near future.
The pro-Indian officials of Afghan government are claiming that this incident happened somewhere around Quetta but it is practically not possible.
Recently, there was another fight among Taliban factions in Zabul when Afghan Taliban attacked another Taliban group. This fighting had led to the death of Mullah Mansour Dadullah and 300 of his fighters. So more and more groups would emerge among Taliban and more blood is likely to spill.
Q: After so much blame-game against Pakistan, the Afghan government against is now looking towards Pakistan, asking it to help restore peace. Afghan President Dr Ashraf Ghani is also arriving Islamabad next week. What in your view made Dr Ghani change his attitude towards Islamabad?
MS: Let me tell you that the Afghan establishment is more inclined towards India than Pakistan. This is why the Afghan media and government officials buy and sell the Indian narrative. This is very unfortunate to note despite the fact that Pakistan has been assisting Kabul since 1970s.
Actually since the Taliban, which are mostly Pashtuns ethnically, have been fighting against local and foreign rulers, other minority groups have dominated the Afghan government. Since the Pakistani government has been assisting Pashtun refugees, Taliban are a bit pro-Pakistan while other ethnic groups have sided with India. This is why the Indian narrative is popular in Kabul.
This is despite the fact that no country other than Pakistan has done much for Afghanistan. Afghans cannot return the favour of hosting over 4.5 million of their refugees for the past 40 years. Till date, around three million Afghans are still living here as our own citizens and they are enjoying all perks with full citizen rights.
Moreover, the migration of 4.5 million Pashtuns to Pakistan left other ethnic groups to dominate the Kabul government. If three million refugees go back to Afghanistan, then Northern Alliance’s majority would be neutralised.
It is unfortunate, to say the least, that Kabul never has reciprocated what Pakistan has done for Afghans.
When Pakistan hosted the first round of talks between Taliban and Afghan government after several requests from the US and Chinese governments, Pakistan’s role was appreciated widely.
However, the sudden revelation about the death of Mullah Omar shook everyone. The pro-India minority among the Afghan government said that after Mullah Omar, the Taliban would be divided and become weaker, so there is no need for talks with them and the military option would be better. So the Afghan government expressed reluctance for talks.
However, after Mullah Mansour took over, Taliban bounced back. They captured Kunduz which is located in the heart of the areas dominated by the Northern Alliance. This military success of Taliban shook the Kabul government as well as the rest of the world, especially the US administration.
Q: Do you believe the recent visits of Pashtun nationalist leaders to Kabul have helped in melting the ice between Dr Ghani and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif? If so, which politician played a key role in this regard?
MS: The Pashtun nationalist leaders often visit Kabul for their own interests. Media reports suggest that ANP leaders Asfandyar Wali and Afrasiab Khattak and PkMAP leader Mahmood Khan Achakzai visited Afghanistan.
However, they never lobbied for a closer relationship between Islamabad and Kabul as they don’t represent the Pakistan government. The only Pashtun leader who represents Pakistan in Kabul is QWP chief Aftab Sherpao. But it was not these leaders that urged Dr Ghani to change his view towards Islamabad. Rather the fall of Kuduz did the magic.
US President Barack Obama had announced troop withdrawal from Afghanistan by 2016, but the fall of Kunduz compelled him to review his drawdown plans and he delayed withdrawal. Obama was also forced to turn back to Pakistan and seek its role to restart the peace process.
So it was the fall of Kunduz which compelled Dr Ghani to request Pakistan again start efforts for peace and Pakistan’s role again as emerged prominent. Pakistan has been saying for long that Afghan peace is in its own interests but Kabul stuck to its narrow approach.
Q: Do you think that Dr Ghani’s upcoming visit would help restore trust between Islamabad and Kabul? What in your view is the way forward for peace in Afghanistan?
MS: It would be a routine visit for trust building and normalisation I suppose. But it would be short of any major development or breakthrough. Pakistan would reassure Dr Ghani of its support to an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned solution of the conflict. But neither can Pakistan underwrite the Afghan government’s security nor should it make any such statement.
Dr Ghani is visiting Pakistan but he does not look to be in the right state of mind. While in Germany, he asked Pakistan to ask the Taliban to surrender and take them to the talking table. Now it looks not only absurd but it also reflects that the Afghan leadership is unable to take cognizance of the situation on ground in Afghanistan.
While Kabul regime can’t defend its provincial capitals in the heart of Northern Alliance areas, they want Pakistan to ask the Taliban to surrender and join talks. This is bordering on childish.
Moreover, Mullah Akhtar Mansour is the only leader among Taliban with whom Pakistan has some clout. But if he has died, then I don’t see any peace talks in the near future. Pakistan’s understanding with other Taliban leaders is not deep. So his death would be a major blow to the peace process.
Since most of the fighting commanders are inside Afghanistan, it would be even hard to contact them as Taliban don’t use cellular gadgets.
Q: How do you see civil-military relations after the recent spat over the government’s inability to take practical steps on the National Action Plan (NAP)?
MS: Yes, things look grim as far as relations between civilian and military leadership are concerned. It is a fact that progress on Zarb-e-Azb, from political government’s side, is negligible. It seems as if the political leadership wants Zarb-e-Azb to fail. It looks convinced not to cooperate with the military in Karachi operation and all efforts are underway to fail this operation.
Soon after the Karachi operation started, the military attained success and target killing almost came to an end. But then the civilian government showed visible reluctance to act against the corruption mafia, which was a major source of funding for the terrorists, and target killers have re-emerged.
The targeting of two officials of military police reflects that the target killers are now have full support of powerful circles. But let me tell you that the military might believe that politicians want to derail the operation. In such a case, the military leadership would not let anyone to fail the operation. The press release by the ISPR after the recently held corps commanders’ meeting reflects that the military leadership is committed to take the operation to its logical end. Let’s see who would have the last laugh though.