What is in Kabul’s best interest?
With another round of talks likely between Pakistan and Afghanistan, it is important to understand not just international political cross-currents, but also problems inside Afghanistan. The country has been riddled with superpower wars, civil wars, and regional proxy wars.
But as there is one more chance for a negotiated settlement to the war, Kabul has more than just politics on its mind. Afghanistan’s society is changing, and modern means of communication are playing an important part. It is in this backdrop that the leadership is considering talking to the enemy.
In November 2015, the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies published a research paper entitled, “Social Media and Articulation of Radical Narratives in Afghanistan.” This research highlights new challenges, indeed dangerous threats, the Afghan society is facing now a days. The crux of the research indicates that social media has assumed a major role in the articulation of; ‘religiously inspired radical ideologies and narratives in Afghanistan.’ The use of this media is rapidly changing the behaviour of Afghan masses; indeed a trend toward the intolerance and radicalisation with varying levels of ‘predispositions towards violence’.
Due to this social media campaigning, the process of radicalisation is taking place at three level; Pendar, Goftar and Kerdar. This first phase can be interpreted as a shift in the opinion of the masses, particularly the youth. This phase gives way to the second phase, the expression and propagation of intolerant and violent views. The third level emanates from the first two is; physical demonstration of the violent actions, the most dangerous phase. With each passing day, there is an increase in the usage of social media, cell phone being the most common and cheapest mean of propagating this ideological misleading.
In the past too Pakistan emphasised the need for peace and stabilisation of Afghanistan through reconciliation between Afghan government and the Taliban
These trends are more dangerous and expected to be long-drawn-out. Indeed, more threatening and mind-polluting then, what it has been the fearsome time of Taliban rule and their ideology in the past two decades. The Afghan society, which already has a divided character, may have unbearable losses because of this social media campaigning. The bad part of this propensity is that; militant organisations in Afghanistan like; Taliban, Hizb-e-Islami and many others are promoting this violence directly or indirectly. The worst part (most risky one) is that, the self styled Islamic State or Da’ish, is making use of social media for enhancing its broader information war-fare against the Afghan government.
This terrorist group (Da’ish) has indeed made its ingress into the Afghan society through some of the former Taliban groups. They are more advance in the usage of latest technology and information warfare. Furthermore, Da’ish has more finances and latest weapons and equipment to influence the people, either through money or by making use of force. The proliferation of Da’ish into Afghan society from Arab world is a very serious threat not only for the Afghanistan, but all its neighbours, mainly Pakistan.
Since other Afghan neighbours generally do not allow the Afghan masses into their countries except officials, therefore, Pakistan remains the only country where Afghan masses are free in make their entry and proliferate its state and society. In the past too the ills and evils of Afghan society have badly influence the state and society of Pakistan. The post Afghan war against Soviet Union has brought radicalisation and sectarianism in Pakistan with many harmful effects, still haunting the Pakistani society.
With the IS (Da’ish) present in Afghanistan, there are likely-hood that, the group may proliferate into Pakistan, like the proliferation of terrorism in the past. There are all the more chances of this proliferation as, the hostile Afghan spying network-NDS and unfriendly people in Afghan Administration like Abdullah Abdullah would like to lit another fire into Pakistan. The favourable factors for the Afghan NDS is that, Mullah Fazlullah and thousand of Pakistani militants of TTP are under the protection of NDS in various parts of Pakistan. Then, there is a porous Pak-Afghan border, which cannot be manned through physical deployment of security forces.
Whereas, Pakistan played a very heavy price for its support to Afghan war against former USSR in 1980s and by becoming a frontline state during global war against terrorism, it suffered more without any pay back and even a formal recognition. The most distressing factor is that, even today, thousands of Afghan nationals enter Pakistan to earn their bread with 2.6 million refuges on Pakistani soil for decades now, but Afghan government and its intelligence agencies are defaming Pakistan and even promote terrorism in Pakistan by hosting Pakistani militants and those from Afghanistan.
This terrorist group (Da’ish) has indeed made its ingress into the Afghan society through some of the former Taliban groups. They are more advance in the usage of latest technology and information warfare
In the past too Pakistan emphasised the need for peace and stabilisation of Afghanistan through reconciliation between Afghan government and the Taliban, the main opposition group, who still have a great say in various parts of that country. Pakistan hosted a round of reconciliatory talks between Taliban and Afghan government, which was quite fruitful. Seeing the progress and likely chances of return of peace in Afghanistan, NDS and Abdullah Abdullah sabotaged the future rounds of talks, thus losing an opportunity of peace and stability returning to Afghanistan. This is very upsetting and surprising, that NDS sabotaged the reconciliation process under the influence of Afghan Chief Executive and Indian RAW. This aspect seriously questions the loyalty of NDS in bringing peace in Afghanistan. Rather, perplexed about the role of NDS and those sabotaged the reconciliation, Kabul pointed fingers towards Islamabad for instability in Afghanistan.
Now, once there is another threat of IS (Da’ish), looming over the broader Afghan horizon, should there be a realisation in Kabul to take pre-emptive measures or let that grow like the Taliban? The speedy re-spread of radicalisation, intolerance and violence (as witness in Kunduz) may bring another turmoil for the state and society of Afghanistan. The continuation of instability in Afghanistan may suit some of the global actors and India, but it will have very serious consequences for Afghanistan.
Since Pakistan always have been affected by any happening in Afghanistan, therefore, it is strongest advocate of bring peace, stability and economic prosperity of the western neighbour. Indeed, peace and stability in Afghanistan would be a win-win situation for both countries. In all eventualities, time is running out and the Afghan government must rise to the occasion and react to the situation; and the sooner the better. Otherwise, the ongoing wave of radicalisation in Afghan society, being propagated through social media may plunge the nation into yet another chaos and unending civil war. Should Abdullah Abdullah, NDS and President Ashraf Ghani feel the heat of this new uprising?
A lot will become clear when Pakistan and Afghanistan sit down to talk again.
