And what are we doing about it?
In the mid seventies energy security of United States of America was breached. The oil strategy was formulated and implemented by four fertile minds (Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Shah Faisal, Mian Anwar Ali, Ahmed Sakkaf). Something very similar happened in Pakistan last year when fuel supplies were disrupted. The wheels of the nation came to a grinding halt. President Jimmy Carter promised his nation that such a scenario will never happen again. He formed a separate Department of Energy (DoE to ensure energy security of his country).
Research was initiated in several universities to develop solar, wind, biogas, coal, bio-fuels, nuclear, ocean waves etc. Almost all sources of energy were tapped with workable commercial applications. At one time in USA 56 percent of power was generated using coal as fuel. With environmental considerations it is now down to 40 percent. Currently, the shale gas is dominating the US energy basket.
In Pakistan the Sui Gas deposits, discovered in 1952, provided energy security to the country. With 12TCF of gas it was the largest deposit of the world at that time. Three companies were involved in pumping and then distribution of this resource that positively impacted our lives. Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), a joint venture of British Petroleum and Government of Pakistan, is responsible for purification and pumping of gas which is then distributed through two public sector companies: Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Ltd (SNGPL) and Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC). Today the country has one of the finest gas networks of the world which is spread over 20,000 KMs. For power generation the country relied on its water resources. Two large dams (Mangla, Terbela) were built for this purpose. Then came the deadlock of Kalabagh Dam. Since then no dam or major water reservoir has been constructed. To add to the miseries of the nation, in nineties oil based Independent Power Producers (IPPs) were introduced on very unfavourable terms to the consumers.
Instead of building the Kalabagh Dam, the Musharraf regime diverted gas as a means of inexpensive power generation. As a result today we are out of fuel and our energy security is at stake. According to the Minister for Water and Power, we are at the mercy of oil mafia. With an import bill close to $14b, this is big money. Instead of energy autarky, the government has decided to import Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and coal thereby conceding more territory to the mafia dons.
Energy is serious business; that is why the US hit back hard when its security was breached. It has several energy options today and it made sure that no fertile mind ever dares to encroach again on its fuel domain. All the four energy strategists who were responsible for the “Oil Embargo” were physically eliminated. ZAB through a judicial murder, Shah Faisal through palace intrigue, Mian Anwar Ali was poisoned while Ahmed Sakkif was assassinated. When an attempt was made to hand over Sui Gas fields to private entity in the nineties, President Farooq Leghari took a stand against the government of his own party which permanently strained the relationship between two political partners. Finally, when he dismissed the Benazir government, they parted ways forever and she never forgave him till her death.
Food and fuel ensure survival of a nation. In case of Pakistan they are interlinked as food is grown using diesel driven tube wells. The country needs to develop a fool proof “Energy Security” plan for its sovereignty and sustainability. For over six decades, the Sui Gas deposit in Dera Bughti area has provided fuel for the nation. Its misuse and mismanagement has driven us from an energy surplus to an energy deficit country. Successive governments since 1958 have failed to expand our energy basket. ZAB’s administration tried to explore similar deposits by forming the Oil and Gas Development Corporation (OGDC). In the nineties Thar Coal was also discovered which is one of the largest single deposit in the world (175 billion tons).
Fuel should not be confused with electricity. I am a supporter of hydel power generation but as a nation we have run out of fuel. Dams can only provide electricity and water and that too in a cyclic mode when the spillways are opened. Reliance on imported gas while our own discoveries remain untapped or burning imported coal, ignoring our indigenous deposits of 200 billion tons, does not make sense.
There has to be an energy strategy with short, medium and long term goals. Pakistan is a developing country, it lacks the muscles to capture energy rich countries or assassinate its leadership, and only superpowers have that latitude. Our solutions have to be indigenous and our fuel resources within our own control. Unfortunately, our energy security is being seriously compromised. No alarm bells are ringing. With foreign exchange reserves of only $ 20b and annual oil import bill of $14b, as a nation we remain on the edge. So far we have been able to provide both food and fuel without external borrowing, but it may change soon. Are we being chocked as a nation?
