Implications
Traditionally Islamabad has been more comfortable when Republicans have run Washington. And if you look only as far back as Bush Sr and Reagan, so has Rawalpindi. But the equation has been under increasing strain since not long after 9/11. Republicans have been the fiercer “do more” critics of Pakistan’s war-on-terror policy. Things have improved since Zarb-e-Azb, of course. And the “do more” even dropped momentarily after the Murree talks. But then the Mullah Omar leak pulled the rug from under the process. The Americans were disappointed, ditto for the Chinese, and Ghani simply reversed course.
Yet, despite the eventual failure, Murree seems to have made the right impression with the Americans. There were more than subtle hints during Gen Sharif’s visit there that the war’s major stakeholders are seriously looking into a negotiated end to the war. The timing is crucial. Winter has just put an end to the toughest Spring Offensive on record. Amid succession problems, the Taliban clearly thought it better to keep fighting, especially considering their gains and field commanders’ concerns. But now they are beset by infighting and an intensifying engagement with Da’ish. Sections among them, too, are willing to talk.
US Senator John McCain, Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, has not been too fond of Pakistan since the Musharraf days. Now, not long after the Murree debacle, his sudden warming up to Gen Sharif, and appreciating the Pakistani military’s “great sacrifice”, has implications as this war winds up, one way or the other. Why the Committee did not raise this when the prime minister was recently in Washington is not immediately known, but it seems the Senate, like the White House, is advocating another Pakistan-pushed peace initiative. But the Afghans are still not game. They do not mind talking, but only as long as the process is direct; not one where Pakistan is a stakeholder. The Americans and the Chinese, therefore, should direct this subtle diplomacy towards ironing out Islamabad-Kabul differences first. The rest of the pieces seem more or less in place. Hopefully all parties will realise that such an opportunity might not arise again.
