The LG polls

Victors and vanquished

As anticipated the PML-N in Punjab and the PPP in Sindh won the day in the second phase of the local bodies elections. The PTI, like in the first phase, again fared poorly.

The only surprise was the complete routing of the PPP candidates in Badin at the hands of Zulfiqar Mirza, erstwhile friend of the party co-chairperson Asif Ali Zardari, now his nemesis. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s last minute foray to Badin a day earlier than polling, to shore up its sagging fortunes in the district, was obviously not enough to help matters.

Asif Ali Zardari has cried foul, accusing the ECP of manipulating LG polls in Sindh by last minute postponement of elections in 81 Union Councils of the province. The party’s supremo also clearly hinted that this was done on the behest of the establishment.

It is no secret that both the PPP and the MQM are at the wrong end of the stick of security agencies cleaning up the province. Notwithstanding their patchy governance record, the first two phases of the LG polls have proved beyond doubt their political relevance.

The MQM easily sailed through in Hyderabad, once again proving its suzerainty over urban Sindh. And despite the upset in Badin the PPP continues to control rural Sindh.

The MQM has also been at the receiving end of the Rangers operation in Karachi for more than two years. The LEAs (law enforcing agencies) have been successful in restoring peace in the mega polis by nabbing thugs, bhatta mafia and criminals ostensibly operating under the wings of the MQM. Nonetheless, the essentially ethnic outfit has been able to maintain its dominance. Similarly, the PPP’s poor governance record and perceived lack of transparency notwithstanding, it has maintained its control over rural Sindh.

The Rangers nabbed Zardari’s confidant Dr Asim Husain almost three months ago on charges of corruption and abetting terrorism. Initially accused of backing and financing the MQM, now he is being presented as an al Qaeda operative.

As the deadline of his remand is coming to an end, it seems through careful leaks the doctor of medicine is being painted as a villain with deep ties to terrorist outfits. Obviously the real target is his mentor and friend Asif Ali Zardari .To determine the veracity of these grave charges, it will be nice to hear his version of events as well.

In Punjab the ruling PML-N continues to rule the roost unabated. Not only in the two phases of the LG polls but in by elections in the province it has proved its dominance.

Of course in such elections those who control the administration (the PPP and the PML-N in this case) largely fare better. Nonetheless these results are a wake-up call for the PTI.

It is no secret that both the PPP and the MQM are at the wrong end of the stick of security agencies cleaning up the province

Admittedly Imran Khan’s outfit is the new kid on the block. Despite the Khan’s constant crib about the 2013 elections being rigged and flawed his party did reasonably well at the hustings.

The PTI not only controls KP, but by virtue of these elections, it emerged as the second largest party in the Punjab with a substantial presence in the National Assembly. The PPP, on the other hand, was completely routed in the province it had dominated in its heyday.

That it is an uphill task for the PPP to make a comeback from Punjab is stating but the obvious. Its present leadership, decimated in the last elections, is demoralised having been virtually rendered obsolete.

Neither Zardari nor Bhutto junior has ventured to the province. This is despite the fact that without winning Punjab it is very difficult for any political party to rule at the federal level. The present provincial PPP President Manzoor Ahmad Wattoo, a wily and crafty politician in his own right, does not instil much confidence amongst the jiyalas.

This should be an ideal opportunity for the Khan to fill the political vacuum but thanks to his enormous ego, he is wallowing under the weight of his own contradictions.

The PTI’s rhetoric is obstinately stuck on the “dhandli” (rigging) mantra. Apart from the fact that the Sharifs and the Zardaris are patently corrupt and a bunch of crooks the Khan has nothing positive to offer.

Not that he is entirely on the wrong foot while castigating his opponents. But the party has to give some positive message as well, outlining policy alternatives while politicking.

The Khan’s claim to moral superiority, however, rings hollow. With the exception of a few, he surrounds himself mostly by rank opportunists and turncoats.

Chaudhry Mohammad Sarwar, the former governor and erstwhile PML-N’s consort in Punjab, is now the party’s point man in the elections. He is also viewed as the presumptive chief ministerial candidate from the province.

According to party insiders Shah Mehmood Qureshi, the able and dynamic politician from the south of Punjab, is his main rival for the job. However, he has been completely sidelined by the Khan who seems to be more favourably inclined towards Sarwar.

Hence it is not surprising at all that the PTI has fared poorly in local bodies elections and in the by elections in Punjab. The party’s rank and file will have to move fast to get its act together. For that to happen it needs a more cerebral rather than merely reactive political strategy.

Theoretically the ruling PML-N in Punjab and at the federal level should be laughing all the way to the bank. It has been largely victorious in most by elections and first two rounds of LG polls in the province.

The relative thaw in terrorism and historically low inflation has also helped in shoring up its fortunes. Of course one can justifiably argue that terrorism has been thwarted by Operation Zarb-e-Azb launched by the military against the TTP, peace in Karachi has been restored by the Rangers and inflation is low owing to record fall in oil prices.

Critics contend that it is no thanks to PML-N or its policies. All somewhat valid points. But the Sharifs have been the major beneficiary of the tail winds generated by these moves.

 The military’s growing impatience, as amplified by the recent corps commanders meeting, could negatively impact the already tenuous civilian-military relations

The major challenge however being faced by the PML-N government remains its misplaced economic priorities. Economic czar and point man Ishaq Dar continues to crow about the government’s real or perceived achievements in bolstering reserves and keeping the rupee dollar parity in check.

However, exports remain stagnant, FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) is at an all-time low and the tax-to-GDP ratio remains obstinately dismal. Resultantly, GDP growth is not expected to cross 4.5 percent during the current financial year. This is simply not enough to generate fresh employment and getting a handle on eradicating poverty.

With its eyes on the next elections, the ruling party’s governance philosophy remains stuck on eliminating load shedding and creating an infrastructure of motorways and metro trains by 2018.

The real test of the government however remains its relations with the military. Hitherto the Sharifs have shown remarkable restraint in dealing with the army leadership.

The recent ISPR statement and the government’s response have, however, laid bare difference in perceptions on governance with particular reference to the implementation of NAP (National Action Plan) to combat terrorism.

The military’s growing impatience, as amplified by the recent corps commanders meeting, could negatively impact the already tenuous civilian-military relations. However, the khakis also have their limitations.

It is neither feasible nor desirable to uproot the present civilian dispensation. In light of past experience the military leadership is perhaps well aware that governing a fractious Pakistani state is not its cup of tea. But this does not mean that the PML-N government should stretch its luck too far.