The rise of AKP
The impasse that Turkish realpolitik found itself engulfed in following the June 2015 general elections was finally broken on November 1, 2015, when the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) regained its position. The last elections held in June 2015 resulted in a hung parliament after the AKP faced the prospects of reaching the end of its 13-year-long rule. Since the AKP lost its majority and none of the other political parties was willing to engage in a coalition partnership, the gridlock tightened. November 1, 2015, will go down in history as a watershed for numerous reasons. This was the first time that repeat elections were held in Turkey at such a short interval of five months and also the first polls under an interim government. The November 2015 election being labelled as a ‘re-run’ of the indecisive June election was the seventh early election in Turkish political history but turned the fortunes for the AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
The snap polls proved the pollsters, speculators and pundits wrong, who were predicting that the election would likely result in a second hung parliament. Erdoğan played his cards very well, calling the bluff of the smaller parties who were not only playing hard to get but demanding the proverbial pound of flesh for their support. A brief look at Turkish political milieu reveals that the political canvas in Turkey is currently dominated by four main parties. The largest is the right-wing Islamist rooted AKP, which has been in power since winning a landslide victory in the 2002 general election.
The main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), has maintained its position as a distant runner up since 2002. CHP observes a centre-left social democratic and Kemalist ideology. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) follows a Turkish nationalist ideology and has maintained third party status in Parliament since the 2007 general election. The Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) was founded in 2012 and originates from the left-wing Peoples’ Democratic Congress. It is perceived as a pro-Kurdish party and maintains an ideology championing minority rights and anti-capitalism. In the June 2015 election, all four parties crossed the 10 percent election threshold necessary to secure representation in parliament but no single party was in a position to govern unassisted by coalition partners.
After being asked to form a government by virtue of leading the largest party in parliament, AKP leader Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu held talks with the leaders of the three opposition parties. With the HDP refusing to join a coalition with the AKP and the MHP preferring to remain in opposition, Davutoğlu entered extended negotiations with the main opposition CHP over a possible grand coalition deal. After 35 hours of negotiations spanning over 10 days, negotiations broke down after CHP leader Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu claimed that Davutoğlu had only offered the CHP a role in a three-month government followed by early elections. The CHP had previously made it a condition that any coalition deal should last for four years, the entire duration of the parliamentary term.
Stating that early elections were the most likely possibility, Davutoğlu requested a meeting with MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli in a last-ditch attempt to form an AKP-MHP coalition. Bahçeli had previously announced his support for an early election, but later put forward four non-negotiable conditions for a possible coalition after a breakout of violence in the predominantly Kurdish south-eastern region of Turkey. The meeting between the AKP and the MHP ended without agreement, after which Davutoğlu returned the mandate to form a government back to the President.
Erdoğan turned the tables on the opposition as well as the other smaller parties by securing 49.5 percent of total votes cast and 317 seats in the November 1 election, wining a comfortable majority of 84, well beyond the minimum required to form a single-party majority government. The CHP retained its main opposition status with 134 seats and 25.4 percent of the votes. Kurdish HDP secured parliamentary representation once again with close to 11 percent of the votes and 59 parliamentary seats. The results were widely seen as a ‘shock’ win for the AKP and was hailed as a massive personal victory for President Erdoğan.
During the June 2015 election, President Erdoğan had garnered support with a desire for changing the Turkish constitution and moving towards a presidential form of government instead of the current parliamentary rule. This time around, the AKP’s sloganeering was for security after intervening acts of violence and terrorist attacks rocked Turkey.
Apparently, the Turks who value their security above everything voted for stability and the AKP. Resultantly, the MHP tanked spectacularly under Devlet Bahceli’s leadership. The party lost a quarter of its votes, dropping to 12 percent, and half of its parliamentary seats, down to 40, compared to the June 7 elections.
Post poll survey conducted by Ipsos on November 4 reveals that political stability and re-establishing peace accounted for the vote choice of 41 percent of AKP voters, 22 percent were motivated by the economy, while 4 percent voted based on religious values. Similarly, increasing violence helped 18 percent of the voters to either decide on which party to vote or change their earlier preferences. The Ankara bombings of October 10 were instrumental for 14 percent of AKP voters to change their vote choice (in favour of AKP). Lastly, 46 percent of the respondents indicated that the first priority of the new government should be fighting terrorism or re-establishing peace.
There appears to be a change in the priorities of the Turks themselves. With greater solvency and economic development, majority of the Turks no longer pursue a membership of the European Union as fervently as they did in the past decade. While Turkey itself has not withdrawn its request for joining the EU, it is looking eastwards and is simultaneously pressing for a membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
As far as Pakistan is concerned, it respects the will of the Turkish people, wishes them well and extends its moral, diplomatic and brotherly support wholeheartedly.