Twists and turns and lack of transparency
Afghanistan is slowly reverting to warlordism, negating the efforts that have gone into building a capable army and police force. The present bout between Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and former Northern Alliance leader and present Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah has been decided in the latter’s favour.
A major factor that stands in the way of peace in the multi-ethnic Afghanistan is the absence of a strong government in Kabul. Such an administration alone can resist pressures from various groups competing with one another for control over policy making. The present arrangement brokered by Secretary of State John Kerry has brought together leaders pulling the country in opposite directions.
Ashraf Ghani took courageous steps to improve relations with Pakistan and hold talks with the Taliban to bring peace. Abdullah Abdullah has never been fond of Pakistan. What is more, he has all along been deadly opposed to talks with the Taliban. He strongly believes that the Taliban are not fighting in order to be accommodated but to bring the state down.
There is then the Karzai factor. The former Afghan president, who once considered Abdullah Abdullah a rival, agrees with him on both the issues. Karzai has strong connections with NDS, the Afghan intelligence agency, as well as with media and a strong group of the parliamentarians. Remaining in the background, he continues to pull strings. It has been widely noticed that more politicians come to see him than Ashraf Ghani.
It was because of the struggle within the Afghan power structure that for months a defence minister could not be appointed. There were also differences over the appointment of provincial governors and important administrators. At a time when taking firm decisions is of vital importance, the Afghan administration stands divided.
The divisions within the government were responsible to a considerable extent for the breakdown of talks between the Afghan government and the Talban. It was from the Afghan side that the information about Mullah Umar’s death was leaked with an aim to scuttle the peace process.
The infighting which is likely to exacerbate does not bode well for peace in Afghanistan. And then there is the Pakistan factor. Pakistan government’s policy towards the Haqqani network and Afghan Taliban remains opaque. The Afghan government believes that Pakistan continues to shelter the Taliban in order to use them as a tool to control Afghanistan. The claim that the Taliban are provided sanctuaries where they plan attacks and conduct them using Pakistan’s territory as a spring board. The US officials also have the same opinion. The Pakistani government remains as usual in a state of denial.
Year after year the government categorically denied that Osama bin Laden was in Pakistan. It maintained that there were no sanctuaries in Pakistan. Statements of the sort have created a credibility gap.
Religious scholars considered close to the establishment have designated the TTP a terrorist network but they maintain that the Afghan Taliban are conducting a jihad against foreign invaders.
Balderdash of the sort led Afghan ulema to oppose permission to Tahir Ashrafi to participate in a religious seminar in Kabul. They said he was a supporter of the terrorists.
Apparently Sartaj Aziz seemed to hold views similar to those of Ashrafi when he told BBC, “When the United States attacked Afghanistan, all those that were trained and armed were pushed towards us.
“Some of them were dangerous for us and some are not. Why must we make enemies out of them all?” Aziz subsequently claimed that his statement had been misinterpreted.
But the statement sprang no surprise. Till the initiation of the Operation Zarb-e-Azb, most of the top PML-N leaders advocated talks with the TTP terrorists saying that they were more patriotic than their Pakistani critics. And they considered those fighting in Afghanistan against the foreign troops 24 karat jihadis.
Quite a few among the American opinion makers insist that the insurgency in Afghanistan is shaped, aided and armed from across the border.
Nawaz Sharif raised hackles when he said in Washington that Pakistan was prepared to assist peace talks but could not bring the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table “and be asked to take action against them at the same time.”
The statement made it plain that the army was not going to initiate an operation against the Afghan Taliban even if they continue to launch horrendous attacks in the neighbouring country.
Remember the assurances given to Karzai by both Nawaz Sharif and COAS Raheel Sharif? While meeting Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in February General Raheel Sharif, according to the ISPR, assured him that Afghanistan’s enemy is also Pakistan’s enemy.
Speaking to Ghani in May Nawaz Sharif condemned the surge in attacks by the Afghan Taliban under their Operation Azm offensive. He said Pakistan considered these acts of terrorism.
“All sanctuaries, when found, will be eliminated by direct action, and will be monitored by the existing mechanism,” Nawaz said, adding “Any effort by any militant or group to destabilise Afghanistan will be dealt with severely and such elements will be outlawed and hunted down.”
Was it all smoke and mirrors?
Pakistan’s position on Afghan Taliban is characterised by twists and turns. Pakistan played the key role in the creation of the Taliban. The religious militia, called “my children” by Gen. Naseerullh Babar, was provided full support as they marched on Kabul. For years Pakistan’s foreign ministers worked hard to persuade other countries to recognise the Taliban government.
There was an about turn after Nine-Eleven. The Musharraf government initiated a hunt for Taliban commanders and political leaders. It handed them over to the US.
After Karzai came to power, there was another shift in the policy. Musharraf provided safe haven to the Haqqani Network. Protests from Kabul elicited familiar denials.
With Ashraf Ghani elected president, there was a perception of a change in the policy. There were statements from top Pakistani civil and military leadership with promises to jointly fight the Taliban.
This never happened
At a news briefing in Washington, US State Department’s spokesperson John Kirby maintained that sanctuaries still exist.
“We know that the safe haven still exists along that border region, and we’ve been very plain about our concerns over those continued safe havens,” he said.
The continuing twists and turns and lack of transparency have deprived Pakistan of a chance to bring peace to the region. Peace and tranquility seems to be as distant now as these were all these years.
