What is beneficial for the country in the longer run?
The importance of a good public transit system is undeniable. The right transport system gels well with a sustainable urban growth model, providing better mobility and hence more opportunities to the citizens.
However, there are two crucial questions that need to be answered in the affirmative before undertaking any mega project in an urban setting.
Do we have the capacity to build? Do we have the resources to sustain?
For a mass transit system to work, the city infrastructure has to be adaptable enough to integrate this new design with ease and advanced enough to facilitate further automation in the near future. Given the high costs involved for such mega projects, financial sustainability of the mass transit system is a key area of concern and experience suggests that relying on a single public entity for finances and services is not the best option.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif inaugurated the project of Rawalpindi-Islamabad Metrobus in June, 2014 after launching BRTS in Lahore. The PM is notorious for focusing more on the demonstrative ability of high-visibility flashy projects than getting his hands dirty and solving the root causes of issues. Experts contend that the twin cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi are growing at a rate of more than four percent per annum ie it is expected that the population would increase to 7.0 million in twenty years’ time. But is the introduction of a mass transit system at a cost of Rs44.31 billion of taxpayers’ money a step in the right direction? We can’t say that for certain.
The first issue is of timing. Pakistan’s growth environmental scores are abysmal: unfortunately, our scores are closer to African countries like Rawanda than regional peers like India. Various economic reports associate these trends with bad policy framework and poor execution. Given that Pakistan has among the lowest spending on education in the world, this doesn’t come as a surprise. Hence, after looking at massive power outages, corruption scandals and the security condition of the country, one naturally questions the priorities of the sitting government.
Many critics are pointing towards the loopholes in the planning process of the Metro project. The government of Punjab has already spent billions of rupees on various projects like building Chandni Chowk flyover, expansion of Mariri Hassan Chowk, etc, with little success in solving the traffic problem. Planners estimate that via Rawalpindi-Islamabad Metrobus around 153,000 would commute daily but this puts a question mark on the status of the remaining 3.5 million people residing in the twin cities. Moreover, we have to be cognizant of our social constructs where materialistic possessions (private cars) are a symbol of power. No wonder we don’t see any leading politician or businessman taking the initiative and travelling via metro bus.
The model of the project has also come into questioning; the 59-seater metro bus makes 29 stops and manages around 15 trips a day. This means that the average passengers using one complete leg of a trip is 103. Transport records of almost all European countries show that a 79-seater manages to accommodate three times the number of seats per round. In India this comes to seven times the number of seats. In London a normal bus has over 50 stops in a route one-third the length. The system stands in isolation to the transit structure of the city and any adjustment would further pile up the cost.
Even if we discount the above factors, the execution of the metrobus project still raises concerns. The project was built in 13 months — six months longer than planned. The entire route was dug up at once without taking public into confidence and any planning to divert traffic. There was no public hearing for the project and it was imposed on people before any reports on environmental impact assessment (EIA) came out. The utter disconnect between the government and the nation is palpable. The first spell of monsoon made matters worse as the bus stations flooded, ceiling started to drip and the escalators were forced shut.
The finances also paint a bleak picture. Instead of adopting the common practice of ‘pay as you go’, Metro service is built on flat pricing irrespective of the number of stops a bus makes. In simpler words, for each ticket, the federal and provincial government pays Rs50 as subsidy which roughly amounts to Rs2 billion every year. In a country which has one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratios in the world, provision of such massive subsidies makes little sense.
Tall claims of revolutionising Pakistan may please the ears but the ground reality is that the state has already defaulted on making payments to the drivers who have voiced their concerns by waging protests. It is too soon to see these glitches; however, they are not unheard of. Increasing evidence from the developed economies suggests that government owned and operated urban transport schemes around the world are facing significant fiscal crises. For instance, San Francisco BART system is facing a $5.8 billion shortfall to replace worn-out equipment. New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority does not have the money to rehabilitate its system. The Chicago Transit Authority is “on the verge of collapse” as it needs $16 billion to rehabilitate its tracks and trains.
Pakistani politicians need to change their strategy from spearheading initiatives based on political whims to what is beneficial for the country in the longer run. We can make a little start by using spaces on bus-bays for private commercials instead of political adverts. We need to look at our capacity and resources before making flimsy commitments and understand that our government can’t call itself democratic and then ignore all sectors before taking steps that shape the future of the country.