Abdullah Abdullah’s doubts
Pakistan will find it difficult, to say the least, to facilitate any follow up to the Murree talks if the Afghan government itself is not willing. And the two-headed National Unity Government in Afghanistan does not agree on most things, but there is now little daylight between Ashraf Ghani’s and Abdullah Abdullah’s positions regarding Pakistan. As far as Ghani is concerned, he came half way, but could no longer keep hawks away after the Mullah Omar spoiler. And then the Abdullah Abdullah faction, the Karzai lobby, the military, and especially the National Directorate of Security, all combined to help reverse his course.
Abdullah Abdullah, on the other hand, has been crystal clear about his doubts all along. Coming from the old Northern Alliance ranks, his dislike for Pakistan dates back to the Taliban government in Kabul. He is naturally among the first people to point fingers at Pakistan whenever the Taliban score a hit. And with this year’s Spring Offensive being the most potent on record, it is understandable why Abdullah, with his mindset, has been on an offensive of his own. So, with Ghani and Abdullah both ruling out talks, is there a chance for a sit-down in the future?
Fortunately, the US and China have shown an increasing interest in talks between the unity government and the insurgent high-command. The Americans, and now the British, have delayed their departure for a reason. The Afghan army is clearly not up to the Taliban challenge too far outside Kabul. It is better, therefore, to delay the drawdown as long as there is another chance for talks. The Chinese, too, have been advancing commercial integration across the continent. For that peace in Afghanistan is among the foremost requirements. So they, too, are putting their weight behind talks. And since the American practically fund the Afghan government, and China is a serious investor there, there might just be enough push in the equation to give peace one last chance. However, already much time has been lost and incidents like Kunduz have emboldened the Taliban, so they will like to talk from a position of strength. This winter, when the fighting traditionally slows because of the snow, will likely tell how the Afghan war will finally end – with peace or a fight to the bitter end?
