How Pakistan should proceed
OK, this is the most interesting piece I was forwarded by a friend. Carried by ‘Stop the War Coalition’, it’s titled: “Why we’re bombing Iraq and Syria: Obama and Cameron clear up any confusion”.
I cannot but share it here:
“You may be confused about why we are bombing Iraq and Syria. So we will make ourselves very clear.
“We support the Iraqi government in the fight against ISIS.
“We don’t like ISIS, but ISIS has been supported by Saudi Arabia, whom we do like, and Saudi Arabia is now supporting us in bombing ISIS.
“We don’t like President Assad in Syria. We support the fight against him, but not ISIS, which is also fighting against him.
“We don’t like Iran, but Iran supports the Iraqi government against ISIS.
“So some of our friends support our enemies and some of our enemies are our friends, and some of our enemies are fighting against our other enemies whom we want to lose, but we do not want our enemies who are fighting our enemies to win.
“If the people we want to defeat are defeated, they might be replaced by people we like even less.
“And all this was started by us invading Iraq to drive out terrorists who weren’t there until we went to drive them out.
“We hope you now understand.” (Posted September 8, 2015)
Russia’s relationship with Syria goes back to 1946 before Syria gained independence via a secret agreement pledging Russian support both diplomatically and militarily to help the Syrian Army. In 2012, Russia stood by Syria against western interests and those of Arabian countries. In 2013 there were allegations of use by chemical weapons against the populace by Assad’s government. Russia’s interests are not restricted only to her naval base at Syria’s port Tartus, the interests are multidimensional.
Russia has worked to build relations with Syria to effectively stop western influence (read US influence) in the region. ‘Russia also doesn’t trust US intentions in the region. It believes humanitarian concerns are often used as an excuse for pursuing America’s own political and economic interests.”(CNN, August 30, 2013)
Further, economics also drives Russian policy regarding Syria. Russia is the biggest military hardware supplier to Syria crossing billions in US dollars. ‘Moscow also signed a $550 million deal with Syria for combat training jets.’ (CNN, August 30, 2013)
In the expanding nexus, China has decided to support Russia in Syria. Her battleships are reportedly on way to fight ISIS. China must not be happy to be pitched against US interests in the region but her greater interests have forced her hand. The US of course must not be happy with this alliance. China believes in non-interference in domestic issues of other nations and fears Syria could become another Libya. If one recalls, China had not voted, preferring to abstain, in the UN Security Council for NATO forces to intervene in Libya. Though China opposed chemical weapons use in Syria, it supported a political solution to Syria. In a very recent development: ‘China wants to deepen military ties with Iran,’ a senior Chinese admiral was quoted as saying after a meeting with Iran’s defence minister in Tehran. (Published October 16, 2015)
Iran is a major player in Syria. It is a country with the biggest Shiite population and Syria with predominantly Shiite population and Sunni rebels has pitched Iran against Arab and Qatar supported rebels in Syria. Iran has, on the other hand, offered a bigger piece of the pie by offering ‘India to invest in infrastructure projects worth $8 billion, including an expanded role in developing a strategic port that will open up access to Central Asia.’(Published July 18, 2015)
‘While Russia backs Mr Assad, the US backs rebel groups challenging his rule. Both however are fighting Islamic State.’ (Wall Street Journal, October 4, 2015) How much alienation can US hand out to Saudi Arabia? ‘We need to keep the Sunnis on board. If countries like Saudi Arabia conclude that the United States not only doesn’t have their back but is promoting the emergence of Iran as the strongest regional power, they are likely to react in ways that the White House won’t like.’(The American Interest, July 24, 2015)
Yet another player here is Turkey that has thrown in her lot with Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Rebels headquarters are based in Istanbul. The Turkish cause is religious based and pro-Sunni. Turkey has landed into a soup it helped cook by granting NATO to use Incirlik air base to bomb insurgents in northern Syria in July 2015. “Turkey, which houses around 1.7 million Syrian refugees, had urged its Western allies for years to enforce a no-fly zone over Syria or erect civilian safe havens there. But its own policy has contributed in no small measure to the two threats it now faces along its southern frontier.” (The National Interest, July 31, 2015)
Pakistan is walking a tricky rope in this backdrop in Syria. Pakistan has traditionally allied itself with Saudi Arabia and US. With changing geopolitical dynamics (reference CPEC and Gwadar) Pakistan will be taking a false step in isolating itself in the region by pitching against Iran, Russia and China in Syria. The new tentative friendship with Russia and Iran needs to be nurtured. This alignment to support rebels and oppose the Shiite regime in Syria does not auger well for Pakistan’s own boundaries being, after Iran, the second country with the highest number of Shiite population. Support by Pakistan for Saudi Arabia in Syria has been allegedly coveted for a while; can Pakistan openly and actively extend this support? Has Pakistan considered the cost of this support? Will the cost be ‘regional pivot’ in the making? Further, fighting war on terror on its home ground and supporting Islamist rebels in Syria is not a good strategy. Pakistan’s stance on Syria has been neutral initially, having itself suffered because of war on terror. This latest shift in foreign policy is a departure from its long term stance and is important as well as significant. Will Pakistan be able to satisfy countries on both sides of the spectrum?
Pakistan will do well to try adopting a peacemaker role. This is what the Pakistan government must strive towards. A blueprint of the approach taken in Yemen crisis would be the best choice.
