Relevant concerns
A certain level of foreign policy posturing is natural ahead of an important visit. Why did the American media leak the bit about the civilian nuclear deal talks, for example? Analysts on both sides were quick to read Pakistan’s foreign office’s reaction; and quickly ‘a possible deal’ assumed very different connotations. Sartaz Aziz’s BBC interview – where he stressed that America respect South Asia’s fragile strategic balance – is just another volley in the same spirit. Pakistan’s main concerns, it means to stress, continue to revolve around national security. And that not only answers why a possible civil nuclear deal cannot be a straight forward affair, but also what Pakistan will talk about mostly when Nawaz sits down with Obama.
But, of course, there’s more than India on the table, especially with regard to the regional security situation. And, to be realistic, America is more concerned about what we might, or might not, be able to do on the other side, in Afghanistan. The collapse of the Murree process – especially keeping Mullah Omar’s death in the dark – lost Islamabad precious diplomatic points in the Pak-Afghan-US triangle. And now Kabul is accusing Islamabad of helping Taliban take over Kunduz. Pakistan has denied, of course, but that does not ensure it will not come up again in Washington.
The visit, therefore, will not be an easy one for the prime minister, nor was it meant to be. The Americans have delayed their departure from Afghanistan, which means they do not have confidence in all-round efforts for peace so far. At such a time, Pakistan will try and focus more on India-specific concerns – across the LoC and Working Boundary, in Balochistan, around the Durand Line, and diplomatically. That is likely to put the two sides at cross purposes; and more people-centric matters like trade, investment, education, health, etc, will once again be pushed lower. Yet both sides have valid points, and both understand by now that failure to address each other’s concerns is keeping the whole region from moving forward. Overcoming this paralysis would be progress enough for the moment.