Hope and expectations
A stiff test of leadership and political acumen awaits Nawaz Sharif in Washington shortly. The Americans have made their wishes known for a while now. Pakistan remains an important security concern in a region where President Obama has just delayed unwinding US presence due to an intensifying Taliban insurgency. Certain circles have also voiced concern about Pakistan’s centrality in the Chinese Silk Route Project, and how Washington might want to address certain issues, etc. And recently the American media itself leaked the civilian nuclear deal angle. The play, here, also more or less speaks for itself.
After a string of foreign policy successes, the Obama administration seemingly wishes to add Pakistan as another feather in its cap. Successive administrations in Washington have worried about Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Back in the day, when the Bush administration signed the civilian nuclear deal with India, the Musharraf government in Pakistan opposed the development, and asked for a similar deal for Pakistan, warning that America would upset the regional balance otherwise. Now, ten years down the road, Obama is willing to offer a similar package to Pakistan. But this time Islamabad might not be willing to pay the price, which is where Washington may have miscalculated.
In return for the deal, and mainstreaming Pakistan in the nuclear club, Islamabad is likely to be asked to put curbs on its arsenal. But as the foreign office rightly stressed recently, Pakistan’s program is not a status symbol, it reflects real regional security concerns. And India, more than Pakistan, is responsible for Islamabad’s nuclear policy. Apparently Pakistan will also carry India specific concerns to the White House; especially how New Delhi is allegedly playing out a proxy war inside Pakistani boundaries. Nawaz will also bring up the Kashmir issue, and the diplomatic paralysis in South Asia ever since the Modi government took over in Delhi. Unfortunately, bigger concerns will not leave much time for niceties like climate policy, education, etc. And Nawaz will have his hands full explaining Pakistan’s position in an increasingly volatile region.