What is, and isn’t, likely to happen
Obama and Nawaz Sharif will hold a second meeting in Washington on October 22. The first one in October 2013 brought an end to the bad patch that had prevailed between May 2011 and September 2013. The meeting was said to have set the relationship on a more constructive path. As Sharif proceeds to the US the ties between the two countries are much more stable than before and according to the FO both are looking for new avenues to further the relationship.
Much depends on the extent of the success in resolving differences in Washington. Pakistan will raise three major issues: The tension with India, the situation in Afghanistan and civil nuclear technology. Matters related to civil and military assistance would also be taken up.
The US will raise two major issues. The presence of terrorist groups inside Pakistan and the increasing nuclear arsenal in the country.
What one can realistically expect is that the US financial assistance and sale of military equipment will continue. It is, however, highly unlikely that the US would pressurise India to restart dialogue with Pakistan. Short of that it would try to ensure that the two countries do not enter into any major military confrontation. It will also try to improve relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the US would put pressure on Islamabad to take action against the Haqqani network, JuD and JeM. For the time being there is little possibility of an agreement on civil nuclear technology between the two countries.
The two sides need each other badly. The US has to ensure that Afghanistan doesn’t turn into another Iraq after the departure of the foreign troops. For this Pakistan’s cooperation is of crucial importance. Islamabad, on the other hand, requires Washington’s financial support to carry on the anti-terrorist operations. It also eyes US combat aircraft and high-tech military hardware. Good relations with the US ensure that there would be a friendly response from international financial institutions.
A number of positive developments have taken place in the region since the Nawaz-Obama meeting in October 2013. Nawaz Sharif hopes these will strengthen his case.
The US will raise two major issues. The presence of terrorist groups inside Pakistan and the increasing nuclear arsenal in the country
The US wanted an operation in North Waziristan but Pakistan’s former COAS Kayani was unwilling to oblige. Operation Zarb-e-Azb, which was launched eight months after the first Obama-Sharif meeting, has put an end to the terrorists’ safe havens and displaced the Haqqani network in the tribal Agency. .
Pakistan has also kept its promise to bring Taliban to the negotiating table. It is again willing to host another meeting.
The issue of the drone strikes, which was a major irritant between the two countries in 2013, is no more there. The attacks do take place, though much less frequently, but they fail to arouse the violent reaction, or for that matter any reaction, from the likes of Ch Nisar and Imran Khan.
A national consensus on fighting terrorism has emerged in Pakistan. Nobody is willing to put up with the poppycock regarding the fight against terrorism being America’s war.
Sharif will however have to address some of Obama’s major concerns. While hailing Operation Zarb-e-Azb in general the Obama administration does not accept the army’s claim that the operation is indiscriminate. The US continues to insist that cherry-picking has taken place deliberately sparing certain terrorist groups. These include Haqqani network, JuD and JeM.
The US administration maintains that Pakistan continues to provide safe havens to the terrorists from where they conduct attacks inside Afghanistan and the Indian occupied Kashmir.
There is a unanimity of views between the US, Afghanistan and India on this point. Both Washington and Kabul accuse the Haqqani network of launching attacks on allied forces as well as Afghan troops and civilians. The Afghan army claims that Pakistan provided on the spot guidance to Taliban during the recent attack on Kunduz.
Washington agrees with the Indian government that Pakistan shelters JuD and allows its chief to move freely in Pakistan, address rallies and appear on TV shows despite the UN having declared the JuD a terrorist network.
In February the Obama administration had asked the US Congress to provide more than $1 billion in civilian and military aid to Pakistan, including a six-fold increase in foreign military financing. The US Congress however argued against treating Pakistan as a strategic partner until the country agrees to sever its ties with terrorist outfits. Pakistan has so far received only $265 million during the current fiscal year under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) for capacity enhancement in counter terrorism and counter-insurgency.
Nawaz Sharif will have a tough time defending the leeway given to the terrorist networks. While supporting Pakistan’s quest for peace with India the US would put forth its own perspective on the subject which differs from that of Islamabad. Obama would emphasise stoppage of cross border infiltration inside occupied Kashmir. In short Obama is likely to say all those things which Ch Nisar calls “speaking India’s language.”
This time Nawaz Sharif intends to raise the issue of India’s support for terrorists like the TTP, Baloch separatists and anti-state elements in Karachi. Even if the evidence he is taking with him turns out to be credible, as far as the US is concerned there is a crucial difference between what the Haqqanis, JuD and JeM do and what the RAW does. The former directly hurt US interests by targeting foreign troops inside Afghanistan. Washington cannot forgive JuD for its role in killing US citizens in Mumbai. The RAW on the other hand does nothing to hurt the US interests anywhere in the world.
There is another issue also that worries the US. American think tanks claim that Pakistan possess 120 nuclear warheads and within the next decade it could have up to 350 nuclear weapons, making Pakistan’s the third-largest nuclear stockpile in the world. What is more it plans to equip some of its submarines with nuclear weapons. This would enable any reckless navy commander to cause a nuclear war in South Asia.
Sharif will however have to address some of Obama’s major concerns. While hailing Operation Zarb-e-Azb in general the Obama administration does not accept the army’s claim that the operation is indiscriminate
The issue is likely to come up at the talks. The US seems to be amenable to Pakistan’s demand for civil nuclear technology. It is, however, likely to insist on a quid pro quo, demanding that Pakistan in return accept restrictions on its nuclear and missile programme, allowing it to keep only weapons and delivery systems that are strictly appropriate to its actual defence needs against India’s nuclear threat.
The conditions go against Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine. Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons are not meant to be used strictly in case of an Indian nuclear attack. Islamabad has never agreed to the “no first use” doctrine, indicating that it does not rule out deploying its small sized tactical nuclear weapons against a superior army whose advance cannot be stopped by conventional weapons.
Pakistan may agree to limitations on its nuclear weans and missiles programme provided the US could come up with a plan that addressed the core issues which divide Pakistan and India including Kashmir. With US presidential elections due in thirteen months there is little likelihood of the present American administration undertaking the exercise. Keeping in view the close relations between the US and India it would be too much to hope that Obama would pressurise New Delhi to initiate talks with Pakistan on all outstanding issues including Kashmir .
It is comparatively easier for Pakistan and Afghanistan to reach an understanding. The nature of relations here is somewhat different from those between India and Pakistan. There is a commonalty of interest in bringing peace to Afghanistan. How long the understanding can last in the presence of doubts and suspicions is another thing.