Will the visit do Pakistan any good?
All eyes are set on PM Sharif’s scheduled visit to the USA. Many claim that it would be a breakthrough of sorts; others state that this will just be another visit.
However, we cannot really dismiss the visit as another one of its kind. Rather, it is important in many regards. With the completion of Kerry Lugar, and the probable signing of the civil nuclear deal with the USA, this visit will definitely have long-standing implications for Pakistan.
The question arises why did this visit appear out of the blue? What led to it and what does this deal mean for Pakistan? It is common knowledge that Pakistan is a frontline fighter in the war on terror. Yet it has always had to face a “do-more” attitude of its allies in Washington. Will that continue? Or does USA think Pakistan is on the right path finally?
Husain Haqqani, Pakistan’s former Ambassador to the USA, thinks that this is just another visit which won’t bear fruit unless Pakistan does some serious homework first.
“Foreign visits are not a substitute for successful policies at home,” he said.
“Pakistan’s leaders have often tried to use them that way though.”
This might be true, but we need to analyse the probable outcomes thoroughly before jumping to any conclusions.
‘The odd couple’
Former Foreign Minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri explicitly mentioned Pakistan and USA to be an odd couple in his recently published book Neither a Hawk Nor a Dove. Both keep complaining yet they keep reconciling, as both need each other. This visit is another instance of the reconciliation of this odd couple. We will have to wait and see, however, whether this reconciliation is coupled with the habitual insults both are fond of hurling at each other or not.
“Yes I have called Pakistan and USA the odd couple in my book,” Kasuri said.
“Because they have been allies since long yet they have been dreaming different dreams despite being in the same bed.”
This strained relationship between Pakistan and USA has historically been marred by various factors. Trouble generally arose from within Pakistan’s neighbourhood; Pakistan’s fondness for China despite the latter’s communism; problems with India over Kashmir; and the American perception of Pakistan being responsible for the everlasting insurgencies in Afghanistan.
Kasuri talked about all these externalities that have affected Pak-USA ties in one way or the other.
The question arises why did this visit appear out of the blue? What led to it and what does this deal mean for Pakistan?
“Since the start, USA knew that Pakistan wants the Kashmir issue to be resolved on equitable basis with India,” he stated the facts.
“America was expecting that the defence aid it had been giving to Pakistan would be used solely for anti-communism purposes. Now in the war of 1965, America got furious with Pakistan for using that aid against India, even though it was obvious that the Kashmir issue was significantly important for Pakistan. Even in the Sino-Indian war of 1962, USA was pressing us to side against China, which would not have been wise for Pakistan.”
However, the problem does not occur just here. Afghanistan has always been even more problematic when it comes to terms between the odd couple. Pakistan has always been perceived by the Americans to have fostered snakes in its own backyard, and this impression has created a lot of bottlenecks and trouble when it comes to diplomatic ties with Washington.
But did this hassle not start when Pakistan and USA allied against Russia in Afghanistan? That was the exact point when the Taliban movement and subsequent insurgency gained impetus. Kasuri also narrated the incidents of that time.
“When there was war in Afghanistan, USA and Pakistan became allies again against Russia in Afghanistan,” he said.
“When the war was over America again abandoned the region, due to which a lot of issues emerged in Afghanistan.”
So the ill-omened halo that surrounds Pakistan is not because of its own errors, rather Pakistan reaps the cost of being in a region which is not ideal when it comes to peace. Guns are the favourite pastime here, and human blood is cheap.
The expected agenda
Now that this visit has been scheduled, various commentators and analysts are busy predicting what it’s going to be like. What will be talked about and what would be the agenda of all these talks that are going to take place soon.
Eminent political scientist Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi seemed to have a vivid idea of what would take place.
“There will be different issues highlighted in the course of this meeting,” he opined.
“The first issue would be of Afghanistan and the role Pakistan can play in ensuring stability in the region. This would be brought to the table by USA. The second issue would be regarding Pak-India relations, which would probably be brought to the table by Pakistan. Pakistan wants to talk but India does not, so this visit would be an opportunity to discuss that. Another issue that would probably be discussed is the bilateral relationship of US and Pakistan. Pakistan’s efforts to control terrorism and the economic and military relations of Pakistan and US will be discussed. Since Kerry Lugar Bill is expiring, there would be talk on what kind of economic assistance can US provide regularly. And what kind of aid will be provided to fight terrorism. And again what kind of military aid can be extended to Pakistan.”
If we compare the words of Kasuri and Dr Rizvi, it seems that both consider the same issues to be important for the odd couple; stability in the region, extermination of terrorism, Indo-Pak troubles. Apparently any deal that would be signed will be under the light of this context and both the signatories will have to thoroughly discuss these issues.
Kasuri also holds the opinion that the meeting is going to be a good development, and is imperative for Pakistan.
We can only hope now that this visit does not come with a volley of sanctions imposed on us by Uncle Sam. And what would follow, that is most important.
Dr Rizvi thinks Pakistan and USA will always have some differences, no matter how promising the things appear to be.
“The aftermath of the visit would be that relations between US and Pakistan would continue,” he commented. “It is a rocky relation and complaints will continue, both from the American and the Pakistani front. Pak-US ties both have positive and negative points. They both can have some shared goals, but not all.”
He thinks this meeting will not be an outright breakthrough, but still would have important economic implications.
“This visit is going to be no breakthrough,” he was confident about this.
“The same pattern of relations will continue. The expiry of Kerry Lugar and Coalition Support Fund are important events and would be discussed in order to craft further plans of action. And the important questions of economic assistance and military aid will be have to be addressed.”
Haqqani too thinks that despite all the media hype, Pakistan might not be able to bag as much as it hopes to. He also thinks it’s not very timely as President Obama is about to leave office.
“This will be a routine visit, which will be hailed as a great success in Islamabad but will likely have little impact in Washington,” he said.
“President Obama is in his last 15 months in office. The US is in election mode. The issues in US-Pakistan relations still remain what they have been for years. Shutting down all jihadis remains America’s priority and the US is now closer to India than it has ever been”.
Apparently the on-again, off-again bumpy ride will continue.
What about trade?
It is a known fact that economies do not flourish on aid. Rather they flourish on trade. Therefore any responsible Pakistani needs to ask what are we going to get from USA? Trade, or will we continue to live on aid?
Dr Rizvi does not see any chances of trade extensions. He thinks Pakistan will not achieve much in that direction.
“Pakistan is looking for trade, but what have you got that you can offer to the US in this domain?” he questioned.
“You have already been granted GSP plus status by Europe, which is on better terms than what the US can offer. But you have been unable to make anything of it. So talk will be done of trade but that would be all academic.”
Haqqani also thinks that trade cannot be expanded unless appropriate steps are carried out.
“To expand trade Pakistan must increase the range of its exports,” he explained. “We should pursue a Bilateral Investment Treaty with the US to enhance investment. But trade increases through activities of the private sector. I doubt if we will get anything beyond the usual positive statements on this subject that are always made at international meetings of heads of states.”
And, come to think of it, what have we done with our GSP plus? Are we any better now than we were earlier? Not many prospects are bright and not many new developments are taking place.
Do more?
An interesting aspect of Pak-US ties is the do-more dictation often given to Pakistan by USA. Now with this deal on the table, it is feared that this do-more attitude will increase.
Kauri, however, does not think so. He believes Pakistan has acted very responsibly of late when it comes to exterminating terrorism from its territory.
This is also a known fact that any state with non-state actors active in it cannot survive for long, as the writ of the state should be complete
“America had stopped insisting Pakistan to do more lately,” he pointed out. “The world has seen that Pakistan is determined in eradicating terrorism. Pakistan launched the North Waziristan operation and engaged its troops. Casualties also took place.”
Haqqani thinks that rather than dismissing the war on terror as an American agenda we need to realise that it is the need of the hour.
“That Pakistan needs to do more in eliminating jihadi extremism is a Pakistani need. Dismissing it derisively as America’s mantra will not change that reality. The US will continue to demand that as will other countries,” he said.
Non-state actors having a network in Pakistan is not good news. It is obvious that no state wants non-state actors to dominate. Why would Pakistan want to end up as a gone rather than a going concern like many other Muslim countries? Kasuri also singled this out.
“This is also a known fact that any state with non-state actors active in it cannot survive for long, as the writ of the state should be complete,” he commented.
“Look at what happened in Somalia, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. Pakistan is fortunate that its army is capable of fighting militancy and can tackle both external and internal threats.”
He thinks the world needs to understand our situation, yet the unbridled nature of the Taliban does not steer Pakistan clear of any responsibility that it needs to take.
“Pakistan should make full effort to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table with the Afghan government, and all it can do is exert moral pressure on the Taliban,” he explained. The world should realise that Pakistan is making efforts on its part, however the Taliban are not our stooges and are no longer completely dependent on us. Even when they were, they were adamant and did not listen to us much, this I am talking about my own experience with the foreign office.”
He also sounded hopeful that the militants will be compelled by circumstances to end up on the negotiating table.
“I have reasons to believe though that this will happen as the chances of Taliban forming a government in Kabul are slim and therefore they will be compelled to come to the negotiating table,” he added.
“They should understand that in case of any insurgency USA, China, Russia and Iran will side against them and of course Pakistan will not protect the Taliban as it would never want isolation.”
He also accepted both Pakistan’s past mistakes and appreciated the recent track the country is following.
“We have made mistakes in the past and now is the time to rectify those mistakes,” he said.
“The good thing is that Pakistan is following the desirable track and eliminating the non-state actors.”
Let us hope that our friends in Washington acknowledge our efforts and we make the most of this visit.
