And its impact on Pak-USA and Pak-India ties
There is a wave of excitement in the enthusiastic Pakistani media about a possible civil nuclear deal being offered to Pakistan by the US. This is exciting since Pakistan will not be less than India now in this domain, if the deal actually comes through.
However, the tendency of Pakistanis to be myopic about events is not something unheard of. We are generally very fond of over-estimating our potential and that is what we are doing now. Our illusion of being equal to India does not make much sense if we closely look at the economic, social and technological progress of both countries. Not everything on Earth is about guns; butter matters as well.
Many sceptics critically question how such a deal appeared out of nowhere. What could be the possible reason for the USA offering Pakistan a deal at a time when Pak-India relations seem to be heading toward the lowest ebb?
Many are wary of the fact that this could mean sanctions and financial burden on the already dwindling economy of Pakistan.
Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri, one of the most successful foreign ministers Pakistan has ever had and the author of Neither a Hawk Nor a Dove, however does not think this deal to be something suspicious and jinxed.
“I had already predicted this,” he assertively stated while talking to DNA.
“I mentioned in my recently published book that USA will probably enter into a civil nuclear deal with Pakistan. That prediction has proven to be true.”
This is interesting, as someone as insightful and experienced as Mr Kasuri can easily read the writing on the wall.
However another important person when it comes to Pak-US relations, Husain Haqqani, the former Ambassador of Pakistan to the USA, thinks that mere exploratory talks about a deal do not signify that we have bagged the deal.
Kasuri recently paid a visit to India. He is well aware of the sentiment of the Indian press and public on this, and he is sure that they are not very happy
“The US has not offered a deal,” he negated the excitement throughout, supporting his opinion with a WSJ article.
“They are only offering ‘exploratory talks’ on limiting the range of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons in return for eventual support in securing membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. As is often the case, our media gets excited at the prospect of any major power offering us anything because we have cultivated a culture of dependence.”
However, it appears that it is not us Pakistanis only who are getting excited over the prospect of this deal that might be offered to us. Our eastern neighbours are also contemplating the possibility and are sentimental as well.
Kasuri recently paid a visit to India. He is well aware of the sentiment of the Indian press and public on this, and he is sure that they are not very happy.
“When I was in India I was following Indian newspapers and there was anger there about US offering this deal to Pakistan,” he said.
He however talked about the fact that a deal of this sort will not be the first for Pakistan. Our best friend China has already helped us in this regard. “However, the point is that when I was foreign minister we already had got it signed with China, and this is something we are very proud of,” he told DNA.
Indian concerns about Pakistan’s agenda in Washington seem unjustified; however they are not new. Ever since their inception both countries have been at loggerheads with each other. Right now the idea of Pakistan being equal to India in some respects is gratifying for Pakistan but utterly dissatisfying for India. It is therefore imperative that both the countries look beyond superstitious signals.
Pakistan needs to realise that comparison between two countries does not have to be nuclear in totality. Rather sustainable development, social betterment and quality of life are also important.
Haqqani pointed this fact out.
“We are excited at the prospect of a civil nuclear deal just because it would make us feel equal to India,” he said. “But the truth is it won’t. Our economic and social indicators, and not securing our source of nuclear fuel, are our real problems.”
This is true. We need to overcome our obsession with India and realise that we have many other problems as well. Maintaining a tall standing in the region is important but weighing each and every alternative in terms of its implication on Pak-India animosity is not a very mature step.
Moreover, we need to be mindful of the fact that we might not be offered the same terms as India has been.
“US is now closer to India than it has ever been,” Haqqani added.
While we acknowledge the fact that we are not USA’s favourite in the region, we need to see some parity in the way a similar deal is assigned to both.
Pakistan has to figure out whether we want a discussion on our nukes of the nature proposed by the US or not
Kasuri also raised this concern.
“Now that we might be signing it with the US,” he said, “it should be kept in mind that this deal should be signed on the same terms as it was with India.”
Hence the signing of the deal is not the only issue that matters to Pakistan. We are mindful of the fact that it could be offered without maintaining parity, and again it could be solely on American terms.
“Pakistan has to figure out whether we want a discussion on our nukes of the nature proposed by the US or not,” Haqqani said.
This makes sense since we need to overcome our myopia and weigh the pros and cons mindfully. Another important concern inherent in signing this deal is paranoia that the nuclear race may gain momentum in the region and it might not be good news for us. However one needs to be mindful that US is talking about limiting the race not extending it.
Kasuri, however, thinks that Pakistan was not the one to initiate the nuclear race at any step.
“The nuclear race in South Asia started when India launched Smiling Budha in 1974,” he said. “Even in 1998, India was the first to undertake nuclear tests, followed by Pakistan. Pakistan had also offered to make South Asia a nuclear free zone, but India did not agree.”
Right now, all eyes are set on the fact that a deal might be in the making. However, let us hope that the terms and conditions associated with it are in Pakistan’s best interests.