The script behind the stage
Last week Kunduz fell to Taliban insurgents. The fall blew the lid off the insecurities the Afghan nation has yet to live with.
The Taliban also captured two districts outside Kunduz city — Imam Sahib and Char Dara — according to an Afghan official and residents. Things did not stop there as the Taliban also seized a hill overlooking Kunduz. Despite the fact that Afghan forces have reclaimed Kunduz, fighting continues and Taliban insurgents have adopted hit-and-run tactics, making it difficult for regime forces to get the city cleansed of militants.
Reports from Kabul and Kunduz suggest that Kunduz Governor Mohammad Omar Safi left the country after the fall of the city, prompting several accusations of being complicit to Taliban’s assault.
Though close observers understand the fragility of the Afghan unity government under Dr Ashraf Ghani, nobody had even imagined that Kunduz, a city far from Pashtun-dominated areas and in the north of Afghanistan, would fall to the Taliban so easily.
Since the Afghan government has time and again accused Pakistan for helping the Afghan Taliban insurgents, the fall of Kunduz has left Dr Ghani’s government wrong-footed as Kunduz is far away from Pakistani borders and rather it is on the Tajikistan border — an area under the direct domain of the northern alliance.
Afghan journalists and officials however see a conspiracy in the Taliban’s takeover of Kunduz. It seems it was an inside job and Taliban were supported by some elements in the northern alliance and intelligence operatives working under direct influence of Dr Abdullah Abdullah and former president Hamid Karzai, who are hell bent on throwing out President Ghani’s legitimate government through conspiracies.
Hamdulillah Arefi, a noted Afghan journalist and an expert on terrorism-related issues, says the Kunduz assault was more a show of strength than a real attempt for territory, and it was expected for the insurgents to fall back under government pressure as they had done after taking smaller towns around the country.
“Kunduz is the first major city in Afghanistan to come under Taliban control since 2001. Afghanistan has been fighting a covert war, in which the enemy is aided by unknown sources,” he said while talking on phone from Kabul.
Asked to comment on the reports of deep differences between Dr Ghani and Dr Abdullah Abdullah, Arefi said he did not buy the argument.
Hamdulillah Arefi also agrees to the point that Mullah Akhtar Mansour wants to prove his mettle to the insurgent commanders and Kunduz attack provided him with the opportunity to tighten his grip over the ruthless Taliban ranks.
So why was Kunduz selected for attack? It is a fact that Kunduz was an area which was under the scanner of Dr Ghani who after some information had decided not to trust on Dr Abdullah Abdullah and rather was calling the shots from Kabul.
Reports from Kabul and Kunduz suggest that Kunduz Governor Mohammad Omar Safi left the country after the fall of the city, prompting several accusations of being complicit to Taliban’s assault
For the purpose, Dr Ghani had appointed a skilled risk management expert, Omar Safi, as the governor of Kunduz in December last year. Omar Safi has worked with the UN as a security officer and nowadays has his own security company in Kabul.
Safi also backed Dr Ashraf Ghani instead of Dr Abdullah Abdullah in the presidential election. Dr Ghani had appointed Safi governor of Kunduz without consulting Dr Abdullah Abdullah. However, the comrades of Dr Abdullah Abdullah never cooperated with Omar Safi.
Omar Safi had also sent several complaints to Dr Ghani accusing the National Directorate of Security (NDS), the Afghan intelligence agency, of secretly supporting insurgents in Kunduz. He also sent reports to Kabul that lots of non-Pashtun locals were joining the Taliban ranks just to get arms for the protection of their families because the local police were involved in crimes against innocent civilians. Dr Ghani however took no action.
Meanwhile, Mir Alam, a local Tajik militia commander belonging to Jamiat-e Islami of Dr Abdullah Abdullah, posed a huge challenge for Safi, the Pashtun governor of Kunduz. Mir Alam was involved in a massacre of Pashtuns in Loy Kanam village in 2012. His militia recently battled with another non-Pashtun militia commanded by Haji Aziz.
Finally, Governor Safi went public with his allegation that around 7,000 members of the two militias were criminals and gangsters. This accusation infuriated Mir Alam who warned Safi to immediately leave Kunduz. The terrified governor quietly escaped and left for abroad.
Another startling fact of the incident is that the Taliban attack was propelled by Mullah Abdul Salam Akhund and Mullah Mohammed Hassan Akhund, both Taliban leaders who were arrested by Pakistan some three years back. They were, however, released on orders of the then President Asif Zardari on intervention and assurance of Hamid Karzai.
Since then, both are allegedly in touch with Karzai and have been active in northern Afghanistan, an area falling under supporters of Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah.
As both Taliban commanders maintained close association with Hamid Karzai, there remains some doubt that the Kunduz episode was a staged and synchronised attack followed by schizophrenic outbursts of Abdullah Abdullah to achieve his objectives.
Dr Ghani, who has been in office for a year now, is already facing criticism for failing to improve governance and security around the country or to counter widespread corruption in state institutions. He is also suffering from a fatal disease and has been under treatment. His movement has also been restricted after doctors operated upon on his foot.
The manoeuvring and intrigues by pro-Indian Abdullah Abdullah and Hamid Karzai are creating problems for Ashraf Ghani’s government. The timing of the fall of Kunduz and immediate outburst by Dr Abdullah Abdullah against Pakistan at the UNGA sessions prove it was the handiwork of the Afghan establishment and proxies of India.
Mr Abdullah’s remarks about Pakistan-backed talks in Murree also reflect a strong mindset opposed to any reconciliation. One cannot afford to remain oblivious that Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval through un-proportionate presence in Afghanistan is engaged in fomenting all sorts of terrorism against Pakistan through proxies like TTP, AQIS etc.
Due to the fragile coalition government in Afghanistan and its weak control, law and order situation of Afghanistan remains precarious, uncertain and unpredictable. The situation is extending ample opportunities to the groups opposed to stability in Afghanistan.
It also creates favourable conditions for masterminds to wage proxy war through Tehreek-e-Taliban Afghanistan (TTA), Islamic State (ISIS), East Turkistan Independence Movement (ETIM), etc. The affairs of the coalition unity government seem unsmooth and bumpy and the relations between the coalition parties are unpleasant and driven by intense power games.
Through diplomatic, political and military channels, Pakistan has been striving with usual vigour, esteem and hope. Pakistan has also exhibited diplomatic magnanimity over disheartening responses from Afghanistan but it’s a good sign that sanity has prevailed and emotions have not overtaken the foreign office, the military and political leadership.