Another embarrassment
Developments on the Afghan front need to be handled carefully or there is risk of the momentum generated after the Murree talks being lost completely. That, of course, will affect all principal stakeholders – Islamabad, Kabul and Washington. Pakistan has clearly been losing the ability to influence events since the untimely announcement of Mullah Omar’s death. It turns out that since both Islamabad and Mullah Mansour’s circle had kept the news hidden, Kabul’s anger at Islamabad found a strange parallel in Taliban field commanders’ unhappiness with the new chief.
Then there is the Kunduz complication. The Afghan security establishment continues to blame Pakistan; since its alleged support and shelter is the bedrock of the Afghan insurgency. But, now, news appearing in the American press that Mullah Mansour runs businesses out of Quetta, and Dubai, is another embarrassment for Pakistan, at least. If true, it bolsters Afghan and American suspicions even if there is still no evidence linking Pakistan support to the Taliban’s war fortunes. The insurgency was potent enough before the peace talks began. This was the first year after the allied pullout, which gave the Spring Offensive a psychological as well as logistical boost.
However, rather than beat the old drum and ask Pakistan to do more, the international community must consider the delicacy of the situation and try to press for peace at least one more time. The fall of Kunduz, however temporary, proved that there is some time before the government can enforce its writ on much of the country, especially militarily. And it proves that the Taliban, after almost a decade and a half of war, are once again on the rise. If, at this point, Pakistan really possesses the power to bring warring parties to negotiations, as it did in Murree, then this option must be explored in detail. Surely the government as well as militants realise the great toll this war has taken on the country, and both would want to minimise any chances of further human suffering. Hopefully a calculated path forward will be found, instead of the usual blame game.