Pak-Afghan complications are far from over
Only for the briefest moment since 9/11 has Pakistan not been distrusted and asked to “do more” by the principal war-on-terror partners. This was around the time of the Murree talks. The Chinese had invested a lot of time and energy in the process. They naturally want the area as free of conflict as possible for the grand Silk Route revival project. The Americans were happy enough to attend and appreciate. There was NATO representation as well. And, of course, both Islamabad and Kabul took something home from the meeting.
This had taken some time in the making, though. Things turned around roughly when the Pakistani military put its foot down and initiated Zarb-e-Azb. Afghanistan’s new government, too, was far more forthcoming than the Karzai administration. President Ghani staked his shaky government on a thaw with Pakistan. He even proposed – there were also reports of an agreement signed – of cooperation and intel-sharing between ISI and NDS.
The reasoning was pretty straight forward. Both agencies would stop supporting the other’s insurgents. Kabul would help net TTP fighters while Islamabad would bring Afghan Taliban to negotiations.
The Americans had reason to be pleased. For years everybody had accused Pakistan of aiding and abetting the Good Taliban. But the Waziristan Operation had turned things around just when Washington was reducing its footprint substantially. With bombs and bullets showering over North Waziristan, the militants’ command and control structure was destroyed. The “do more” clause was finally dropped.
Then came the Mullah Omar monkey wrench. Somebody, for some reason, fed the story to the press, obviously to bulldoze the peace talks. Pakistani security analysts are convinced it was the NDS, which has run TTP for a while now, providing logistics and protection along the border. Ghani was never in a position to vouch for them, they say. Even the Abdullah Abdullah faction of the coalition government was against partnering so closely with Pakistan.
The Americans had reason to be pleased. For years everybody had accused Pakistan of aiding and abetting the Good Taliban. But the Waziristan Operation had turned things around just when Washington was reducing its footprint substantially
Pakistan was embarrassed, to say the least. Just days before the shock local media reported Omar’s endorsement of the talks. Now, suddenly, there were complications with the succession, especially since field commanders wanted to build on the momentum of the Spring Offensive – the most potent on record. Islamabad’s sincerity was questioned once again. Washington quickly reverted to “do more”. Ghani backed off. And fighting worsened in Afghanistan. To help understand the emerging situation, DNA talked exclusively to renowned writer, journalist and historian, Ahmed Rashid.
Supply chain
“There’s no question that a Taliban supply chain runs through Pakistan”, he said. “We will have to restrict their logistical leverage on our side of the border, which they also use for recruiting”.
And yes, Pakistan has been duplicitous. If the matter of Mullah Omar’s death had been handled correctly, the Murree momentum would not have been lost, according to him.
“There is a need on our side to be more transparent”, he added.
“When Mansour was chosen, three to four thousand Taliban gathered at the Quetta shura to deliberate. We cannot allow such developments and then continue to deny their existence”.
Still, Pakistan has done much that should be appreciated if you ask him. There has definitely been a big shift in Islamabad’s position. “We now fully support the peace process. The initial success of the Murree talks proved that we can play a constructive role in ending the fighting”.
But important time has been lost. Already events have overtaken Pakistan’s position. The Afghans no longer want to talk, they just want Pakistan to ‘act’ against Afghan Taliban on this side of the Durand Line. Mullah Mansour will not be able to play the peace card no matter how much he, or his alleged handlers, would like to. The Spring Offensive had been gathering force throughout the year. And with the fall of Kunduz, however briefly, all peace bets were off, and Kabul once again pointed fingers at Islamabad.
“Kunduz does considerably complicate matters”, Rashid said, “but it was completely the Afghan government’s fault”.
They army was not prepared for the onslaught even though the enemy was advancing for months. It was caught completely off guard. The government felt a lot of heat; Ghani was even asked to step down.
“But as is mostly the case in Afghanistan, Pakistan was the typical scapegoat”, he said.
New complexity
Significantly, the Afghans blamed Pakistan for the fall of Kunduz even though the provincial capital is far removed from the notorious Pak-Afghan border regions. It is also at the other end of the country than the Taliban’s southern strong point of Kandahar and its surroundings.
And hasn’t Rashid talked and written about grave dangers to government writ in provinces along the Durand Line? Are they, like Kunduz, also in danger of falling?
Pakistan also tries, just as the prime minister did at the UNGA, to highlight how it is one of the biggest victims of international terrorism, yet there are few takers
“They were, but there’s a new complexity now”, he explained. Apparently, a large number of Afghans have taken up the ISIS banner along the border.
“There has been pretty intense Taliban-ISIS fighting in these areas. The Taliban have lost a lot of people, so the equation in some of these provinces is changing”.
Realistically speaking, then, there’s very little Pakistan can do to help Afghanistan. The foreign office offers peace talks another chance every time the Afghans accuse Pakistan for one of their own problems. But since Kabul no longer wants talks, there is little common ground – unless Pakistan agrees to act against any Afghan Taliban on its soil.
Pakistan also tries, just as the prime minister did at the UNGA, to highlight how it is one of the biggest victims of international terrorism, yet there are few takers.
“The PM’s speech could not alter the fact that we are extremely isolated internationally and regionally, except for Chinese help and investments”, Rashid added.
“The state of the world has become precarious, people at large do not have much interest in issues like Kashmir. That is unfortunate, but true”.
Ahmed Rashid’s take on the latest in AfPak, then, is that the key out of the present impasse lies with Pakistan, just like it did at Murree. This time, though, Pakistan will have to do more than get parties to talk. It will have to further disrupt whatever support system the Afghan Taliban have in Pakistan.
