Sojourn to New York

Fruitless exercise?

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has embarked on a rather longish two-week foreign visit to address, later this month, the General Assembly session of the United Nations. His first stop was London, his favourite city, where after celebrating Eid he will fly to New York.

Politicians in power love to undertake such jaunts under the flimsy cover of diplomatic missions. It is always a heady experience to get red carpet treatment, meet other leaders and have time out, far away from the usual suspects and intractable problems back home.

More so in case of Nawaz Sharif, who looks increasingly burnt out and detached at home. He cherishes spending time on his own in London at his Park Lane apartment and visiting nearby Selfridges megastore with his few personal friends and family.

The question that, however, begs an answer is that does his official agenda abroad justify such a long absence from the country? Especially since he is due to make another visit to Washington later in October as guest of US President Barak Obama.

Back home Sharif ostensibly is steering an increasingly creaky ship. Is he really in charge or merely going through the motions of being so?

His body language betrays an increasingly discomforted persona, and rightly so. Anyone in his shoes with an iota of common sense will feel the same way at the present state of affairs.

As it is Pakistan can more accurately be described as Massailistan (land of problems) to the extent of becoming virtually ungovernable. Successive military and civilian governments have contributed to the mess.

The present civilian-military matrix has further complicated matters. Sharif, going by his natural instincts, is forced by dint of circumstances to submit to the wishes of those who really matter in the Islamic Republic.

The question that, however, begs an answer is that does his official agenda abroad justify such a long absence from the country?

Not that left on its on the PML-N government would have done wonders in setting shining examples of good governance. The areas where the federal government has a free hand in decision-making leave a lot to be desired.

Take the case of the power sector. Despite much hyped claims to the contrary, it remains in a mess. Both the elder and the younger Sharif (in Punjab), in their anxiety to fix the problem of perennial power and gas shortages well before the next general elections in 2018, have cut quite a few corners.

Taking a charitable view, the Nandipur power project and Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park have become controversial thanks to the undue haste shown by the government not to go by the book. Similarly, the LNG (liquefied natural gas) import from Qatar saga is another bête noire.

The minister for oil and gas, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, insists that the deal is a panacea for Pakistan’s energy needs. However, he is reluctant to disclose the fine print in the dubious deal. He refuses to divulge the price on which LNG is being imported and sold, assiduously insisting that Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) will determine the ultimate price.

Interestingly, the regulatory authority has not been able to do so since March, when the first LNG ship berthed at Port Qasim LNG re-gasification terminal. According to the minister the authority is yet to be properly constituted. Why has the government been unable to constitute the authority despite being in power for more than two and a half years?

International oil prices crashing are an economic bonanza for the government. Despite GDP growth stubbornly stuck at less than four percent, inflation is low – a welcome relief for the common man as well as the government. Nonetheless, even though there has been a marginal improvement, the economy remains in dire straits.

On the political front as well, Sharif faces multifarious problems. Thanks to the Rangers (read military) operation in Karachi, cohabitation with the PPP as the friendly opposition has come to an abrupt end.

The PML-N cannot rely upon the PPP to bail it out like it did last year at the time of the dharna. To unilaterally call off the operation against the PPP in Sindh, although technically possible, is much beyond the prime minister’s ambit.

In the meanwhile, the third political force in the form of a belligerent Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is knocking at the doors. Imran Khan is openly clamouring for a Rangers operation against the PML-N in Punjab.

He will have no qualms in welcoming an extra-constitutional intervention. Thankfully, no such move seems to be on the cards. However General Raheel Sharif’s popularity — real or contrived – certainly must be giving jitters to PM Sharif.

While in New York Sharif will certainly bring up the Kashmir issue in his address to the UNGA. However, meeting his Indian counterpart on the sidelines is being ruled out. In any case, after the disaster at the Ufa summit earlier this year, another meeting would have been futile.

In the wake of the terrorist attack on Badaber air base, a meeting with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is likely. The government, in a high level meeting in Islamabad chaired by Sharif with the top brass in attendance, had decided to give the Afghan government a dossier of TTP terrorists being given sanctuaries inside Afghanistan.

Nawaz Sharif, due back home early next month, will have to devise some strategy to deal effectively with a labyrinth of intractable internal and external problems

In this context a summit meeting will be fruitless unless followed by a change of heart on both sides of the divide. The Afghan government has its own complaints regarding Pakistani soil being used by the Afghan Taliban for terrorist attacks inside Afghanistan.

These claims are buttressed by the US which keeps insisting that Pakistan should do more to weed out terrorists operating from its territory. In this context special mention is made of the Haqqani Network being given protection by Pakistan.

The Pakistani military has a deep imprint on Afghan and India policies. Hence the solution lies in Islamabad/Rawalpindi and Kabul rather than in New York.

In order to effectively combat terrorism outdated security paradigms will have to be abandoned. Time and experience on the ground have proven that distinction between Afghan Taliban being the ‘good Taliban’ and the Pakistani Taliban being the bad ones no longer holds.

Both are equally bad for Pakistan. The sooner this reality sinks in, the better for the hapless people of Pakistan.

As far as India is concerned, better relations are in best interests of both the countries. War is not an option for either of them. However, it takes two to tango. For the time being the Modi-led Indian government is in no mood to do so.

Nawaz Sharif, due back home early next month, will have to devise some strategy to deal effectively with a labyrinth of intractable internal and external problems. Right now he seems clueless apart from playing a wait and see game.