Airbase tragedy fallout
Mark Tonerc, the spokesperson of the US State Department, was correct when he termed the recent attack on PAF airbase at Peshawer as a “reprehensible act.” He also acknowledged the fact of Pakistan being the biggest victim of terrorism and militancy. This is true again – and sad. The war on terror has cast us numerous precious, not to mention the many economic setbacks.
After many months of euphoria, we as a nation again face a grim prospect – of our internal fight gaining momentum. The military had been tackling militancy with an iron fist; however the attack on the PAF airbase itself is enough to create a wave of terror in the mind of anyone who thinks deeply. Earlier the militants had given a strong message by assassinating Shuja Khanzada, the home minister of Punjab. Retaliation is coming, and fight is getting diversified. We are beyond FATA and Karachi, no matter how hard we try to ignore the sad reality.
Yet, we do deserve a pat on the back for our made-up resilience and our naivety. Our ability to shrug and then move on as if nothing happened is one of a kind.
Dr Hassan AskariRizvi, eminent political scientist, however thinks it’s not all bad news.
“One failure does not mean total failure,” he commented. “On average, the security situation in 2015 has been better than last year.”
That is correct, but when it comes to Pakistan, blood is the new normal. We are so used to bloodshed that one or two instances are not enough to shake us. However, it is high time we analyse what are going through and what may follow.
The vicious Afpak circle
Jamil Ahmed in his captivating novel “The Wanderng Falcon” has explained the cross-border movement between Pakistan and Afghanistan. While Ahmad has explained this beautifully by weaving in various cultural elements, reality is not so captivating and not so beautiful. Half of our troubles in uprooting the militants’ infrastructure lie in the fact that they do not really regard the Durand Line. You shoot them here, they will go there. You chase them there, and they come back. This is a vicious circle and rather than targeting individuals we need to locate the militants in the network.
Ali Arqam, a journalist and researcher based in Karachi, thinks on the same lines.
“Army offensive against the militants is important,” he told DNA.
“However, the army offensive is not the end of the story. The militants are not crushed to the core. They are pushed back to other areas, though there are not many independent sources to comment on this. Now when we fought them in our tribal agencies, they moved to other parts, specifically across the border. Now we know that these areas are difficult to inspect for either country, that there is hardly any way to prevent this.”
Afghanistan and Pakistan are both very fond of hurling accusations at each other. These blame games are almost always the first response
A look at the map of Pakistan and Afghanistan speaks volumes of the enormity of the issue.
The Durand Line is long. It is around 1400 miles. And the best part is there are people who do not really consider it. For those who consider both territories to be their own, the Durand Line does present a lot of space to move around. Trouble here, go there – Simple.
Aqram continued his analysis.
“There are sleeper cells and hideouts in every major urban area,” he said.
“With the network of terrorists intact, there is hardly any way to wipe out this evil completely. Terrorism infrastructure has been laid out and protected, so they hardly miss any opportunity on either side of the border. That is the biggest challenge. This incident was particularly a message sent out by the militants that they still have the capability to strike back.”
Amir Rana, a prominent security analyst and journalist, agrees that with the infrastructure intact, we need to do some serious homework. He agrees that we need to consider both sides of the border.
“The PAF airbase attack incident indicates that infrastructure is still there,” he commented.
“It may be on the other side of the border, with the support groups being present in our own territory.”
Another noticeable thing is that Afghanistan and Pakistan are both very fond of hurling accusations at each other. These blame games are almost always the first response. However, the dilemma is both are victimised by the same problem.
“Both sides are facing a complex challenge,” Rana said.
“Both countries therefore need to avoid blame games and face the common challenge through joint security mechanism.”
Dr Rizvi, when questioned about Pakistan hurling accusations at Afghanistan, stated the obvious.
“Both the countries do this,” he pointed out. “Afghanistan reacts in a similar manner when any act of militancy takes place there. Both the countries need to work together and take joint control of the Durand Line. If we do not adopt a shared approach, Taliban would be the beneficiary.”
The discussion above makes it very clear that in order for the internal security conundrum to be settled effectively, the Afpak perspective needs to be kept in mind.
The cost of strategic depth – whether or not
Military literature denies the usage of any strategic depth doctrine. The critics contrarily are very fond of bashing the late Hameed Gul and military intelligentsia of the 1980’s of succumbing to their own whims, and creating snakes in our own backyard that continue to bite us to this day.
But whether or not the recent incidents are the cost of strategic depth is a question that needs to be explored objectively.
Dr Rizvi negates any notion of us bearing the cost of strategic depth to this day.
“Strategic depth is an out-dated concept,” he explained.
“Strategic depth is finished. There is no such concept left in the nuclear era.”
Amir Rana agrees here.
“The challenge is not because of strategic depth. Strategic depth as presumed is not a viable doctrine. The only way to achieve strategic depth is through China, the economic corridor specifically, and Central Asia.”
While it has become quite common to state that Afghan jihad and the involvement of Pakistan in Afghanistan is the core of the problem, times have moved and these are baseless accusations. Decades have passed, and there is an entirely new world facing us today. Assuming that our striving for depth has led us down this firestorm that we are in is wrong. If we dig history, not-so-distant history, we will realise that cross-border movement between Pakistan and Afghanistan did not originate in the 1950’s. It was there ages ago, and there are two parties to it; the tribes and the terrorists. Any loopholes in the system create safe havens for the terrorists.
The real motives behind such heinous acts
These militants are smart, smart enough to know what kind of response a terrorism incident will elicit. If we carefully look at the timeline given in figure 2, we will realise that they are very fond of attacking military areas.
The tales of glory that always accompany the military, particularly in a country with precarious internal security, are fascinating. However, there is more to the scenario than glory. Pakistan has suffered a lot. And no military can possibly march up like iron-clad knights fighting the baddies with no problem. There are challenges involved and at many instances, a lot of gore is involved too.
This is realistic. What however is unrealistic is the narrative fed to the masses that all terrorists are shaken to the core, because in reality they aren’t.
What is the motive behind such heinous acts? All the interviewees for this writing agreed that it is to create a wave of terror and again to make their presence felt. All talked from different perspectives but had this central point.
“Terrorists always make an attempt to create terror,” said Amir Rana. “This is generally their strategy. They know attacking on which area will elicit the most terror.”
Ali Arqam added to this analysis.
“Well, these are for their local interests as well,” he highlighted a different angle. “There are different sorts of interest groups, generally involved in narcotics, in extortions, in getting ransoms. Most of the terrorists are involved in such things. So, if the notion is spread that they are wiped out and gone, their interest will be damaged. They have to make their presence felt in order to uphold their gains and motives.”
Therefore, right now there are two sorts of struggles going on. One is by the civilian and military apparatus of Pakistan to give the impression that terror networks will lose eventually. The other and the one apparently gaining momentum again, is the struggle by terrorists themselves to defy any such impressions.
We need to stay vigilant and make sure that our euphoria does not get the best of us
“Militants generally take advantage of any security lapses present in the system,” Dr Rizvi added.
So while we are busy eradicating terrorists, they are busy asserting they are not eradicated. And attacking significant military points again and again is not a coincidence. Since Sharif the general is more involved in militancy eradication than Sharif the PM, militants strive to send a signal again and again that they are not totally crushed, and hence should not be taken too lightly.
Not all bad news
However, one incident is not the end of the world. What is worth an acrimonious critique is the fact that we take the mishaps too lightly and are generally optimistic to the point of folly. However, our security apparatus does deserve a pat on the back for its commitment to rid the country of the plague of militancy.
Our analysts also agree that there is more to the picture than utter doom and gloom.
Commenting on the airbase attack, Dr Rizvi still sounded hopeful.
“We cannot decide everything on one incident,” he explained. “There has been a decline in terrorism incidents overall. The recent attack is a failure in one way but does not mean nothing is being done. We need to observe the average of this year and the previous ones, and 2015 is comparatively much more peaceful.”
Amir Rana too agreed that rather than ignoring progress on all fronts, this incident just indicates the presence of terrorist infrastructure. He also acknowledged progress on NAP.
“There has been marked progress in certain areas of NAP,” he applauded. “Not overall though.”
The situation is clear. The fight is vicious, it is on-going and it is dangerous. The task of eradicating terrorism is strenuous. We are doing it and the nation does deserve to be happy on this. However we should not ignore the cues. This is another shaking incident, and we need to reflect and re-think. For the euphoric minds it should have served as a wake-up call but bravo to our resilience – let’ put a nice name tag on it.
We need to stay vigilant and make sure that our euphoria does not get the best of us! And we need to solve our differences with Afghanistan for the greater good.
