Trade this time
Beneficial trade with immediate neighbours just does not seem Islamabad’s strong point. That commerce could never come in the way of politics with India is understandable to an extent, given how establishments on both sides are anchored in regressive nationalistic politics of a bygone era. But things have not been much better with friends either. We have always struggled to get the ball rolling with Iran – partly because of our closeness to Gulf monarchies and partly out of western pressure. And China-specific trade too, despite all the rhetoric of brotherly love, is miniscule. That is one reason why economic negotiations with Kabul – along with the proposed political thaw in President Ghani’s outreach – were being eyed as a potential game-changer.
But it seems Pak-Afghan trade will remain stuck around the $1.5 billion mark; a far cry from the $5 billion figure that was worked out ahead of the negotiations. The problem, once again, is Kabul’s demand for transit trade with India. It turns out that the deadlock was reached some months ago, but concerned ministries kept a lid on the disappointment to keep the political and security negotiations on track. But now that they too have unravelled, it was natural for this news to come out into the open.
Importantly, just as Afghanistan will not use Pakistani territory to get to India, we too will now be ruled out of the Afghan trade route to Central Asia. Of course, this problem has enabled Iran to gain as the by-pass for Afghanistan; an arrangement that is now turning into infrastructural reality. When more groundwork is done, Pakistan will become irrelevant. True, we will also win a foothold in Upper Asia because of the Corridor, but the Afghan route was meant to cater to different realities which must now be compromised.
Our leaders must explore new, innovative diplomatic procedures to lead us out of this paralysis. Our export earnings are already very low. There is an urgent need to enhance trade by whatever means necessary; especially by erecting basic linkages within the region. The present mindset will just not do any longer.