Pointless rigidity
Pak-India temperature continues to race towards the boiling point; where either one party will have to deescalate or, in the extreme case, the diplomatic wrangle will complicate into something more destructive. Already the situation is markedly different from Modi’s swearing-in, when Nawaz’s good-will gesture of side-stepping Hurriyet proved a costly long-term error. Mortar exchange, and killings, across the Line of Control and Working Boundary is a serious reminder of how quickly things can spiral out of control if not handled with the greatest care. And at the moment, neither side seems to willing to put out the fire.
To his credit, Nawaz did try this time. The Hurriyet gambit was part of a greater political outreach to Modi. There was no reason, in his mind, that two right-of-centre governments with an agenda of trade and commerce could not be a little flexible in favour of business. But Modi didn’t take long to betray his preferred policy posture. Even when Nawaz was still in Delhi, the Indian foreign office held an unscheduled and provocative press conference. Unfortunately, though, Nawaz took too long to smell the coffee. And already the Modi Administration is demanding no-Hurriyet as the bare minimum, in addition to ruling out Kashmir from immediate talks, of course.
But this is where the BJP risks overplaying a rigid hand, even at home. India is a diverse polity where such extreme foreign policy will not find unstinted support for too long. Already, not many are happy with the precarious position Modi’s machinations have put Delhi in. Holding such aggressive positions is never easy. Sooner or rather Delhi will either have to soften its stance – which loses points politically – or turn up the heat even further. Since Delhi’s repeated snubs – cancelling foreign secretary and national security advisors meetings – have given Islamabad the higher moral, if not diplomatic, ground, it might not be able to sell the sabre-rattling as effectively as it used to. Hopefully better counsel will prevail before this needless confrontation worsens. Neither country needs a lesson in wasted opportunities and hollow nationalism.