‘A Normal Nuclear Pakistan’ by Toby Dalton and Michael Krepon reported some interesting facts about Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities.
It points out that Pakistan’s nuclear proliferation is a direct result of its tussle with India. However, that tussle hasn’t just resulted in weaponry; Pakistan has amassed diverse nuclear capabilities over the last few decades.
So long as it is threatened by India’s growing number of nukes it will continue this pattern.
“At this juncture, Pakistan’s military leadership in Rawalpindi can choose to accept success in achieving a “strategic” deterrent against India — a nuclear force posture sufficient to prevent limited nuclear exchanges and a major conventional war,” the report highlighted.
“Alternatively, it can choose to continue to compete with India in the pursuit of “full spectrum” deterrence, which would entail open-ended nuclear requirements against targets both near and far from Pakistan. These choices would lead Pakistan to two starkly different nuclear futures and places in the global nuclear order,” it added.
The nation that operates four plutonium production reactors has the ability to create over 20 warheads on a yearly basis. India on the other hand is producing only five. However, this disparity does not work in Pakistan’s favour.
“But given its larger economy and sizable nuclear infrastructure, India is able to outcompete Pakistan in fissile material and warhead production if it chooses to do so. Pakistan has prepared for this eventuality by investing in a large nuclear weapons production complex. Whether New Delhi chooses to compete more intensely or not, it is a losing proposition for Pakistan to sustain, let alone expand, its current infrastructure to produce greater numbers of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery,” the authors observed.
“Just as the Soviet Union’s large nuclear arsenal was of no help whatsoever for its manifold economic and societal weaknesses, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons do not address its internal challenges,” the report pointed out.
The report goes on to highlight five nuclear weapon related initiatives that the country can take. It advised Pakistan to change its declaratory policy from “full spectrum” to “strategic” deterrence.
The nation should commit to Shift declaratory policy from “full spectrum” to “strategic” deterrence. It should commit to a recessed deterrence posture and limit production of short-range delivery vehicles and tactical nuclear weapons.
Pakistan was also advised to remove the veto on Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty negotiations and bring the production of fissile material down or stop it altogether.
It was also advised to separate civilian and military nuclear facilities, along with sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty without waiting for India.
These steps are safe for the country since they will not negatively affect its strategic deterrence against India, and open it up to a whole new world of possibilities that it can manipulate for growth and progress. This, however, is much easier said than done and will require a massive shift in perspective and priorities for the country.
“The global nuclear order will not be strengthened by trying to accommodate a Pakistan that is greatly increasing its nuclear capabilities while rejecting the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. Nor will Pakistan become a normal, nuclear state by competing with India or by harboring groups that could spark a war with India,” the report highlighted
