Foreign policy imperatives
Once again the foreign policy pendulum has swung; this time undoing some of the good that had been done in the recent past, especially regarding AfPak. But India is the foremost concern. Clearly Nawaz Sharif realises now that he was wrong to expect reciprocity when he chose to be flexible in New Delhi. He should have known that BJP would feed on any weakness, and not meeting Hurriyat – out of good will, at Modi’s swearing in – was a mistimed gambit. New Delhi knew full well, though, that Islamabad would never accept no-Hurriyat as the bare minimum for forward movement. Yet, it is sticking to its guns, which speaks volumes about its posture, at least till the present cycle lasts.
AfPak, too, is becoming more complicated by the day. Recent goodwill, from Kabul as well as Washington, centred on Islamabad’s ability to keep the Murree process rolling. But when Afghan intelligence exposed Mullah Omer’s death, much of Pakistan’s leverage was lost. Mansour is still struggling with establishing his command, which is why he will favour fighting at least in the short term. It would be ridiculous for him to forego the strong Spring Offensive when most ground commanders want more territory. So the talks, for the moment, are off. That explains President Ghani’s disappointment and sudden and all too familiar demands from Washington to “do more” again, especially about the Haqqanis.
There is, of course, also some good news on the horizon. The equation with the Chinese is always improving. And with the billions associate with the Corridor about to come through, bringing their own multiplier, things are likely to get a lot better. Then there is also the recent advance with Iran. There has been a landmark border security agreement, which will also calm the temperature in Balochistan. And there is a new deal to increase exports more than fivefold, to $5 billion, within five years.
Strangely, though, Pakistan still does not have a full time foreign minister. The prime minister does not want to explain his position of keeping the foreign ministry portfolio as well, especially when times are changing fast and Pakistan’s position comes under undue strain without warning. He must understand the demands and pressures of the foreign ministry, and appoint a full time minister.
