The black, white and grey of it
As if there weren’t enough internal pressure, now Nawaz must wade through a foreign policy maze as well. Time was, not long ago, that the judicial commission wrapped everything related to the dharna, legitimacy, etc, once and for all. So the home front seemed in the bag. Outside, relations with the Afghans had truly turned a new leaf, especially after the Murree talks. And even the Americans were happy enough to drop the “do more” for once. Sure, India was a thorn in the side, but N kept the high moral ground by pushing for talks despite Modi’s belligerence.
Then, just as wickets started falling at home, the foreign policy picture began changing also, putting N to test once again. The Afghan initiative has already unravelled. They clearly didn’t like it that we lied about Mullah Omar. Ghani had staked his presidency on reaching out to Pakistan. Karzai had lobbied loudly against it. And the Abdullah Abdullah faction of the government – representing the old Northern Alliance – was also dead against it. Hence Kabul’s thank-you-very-much; they just want action against sanctuaries now. And the more the Spring Offensive builds, the more they’ll point fingers at Pakistan. It’s unlikely that N’s responses and reactions will be entirely his own, but it will be interesting to see them.
And immediately after Kabul came the usual “do more” call from Washington. They had backed Murree, even participated, and also did not like how it just fizzled out. Suddenly they are not happy about the extent of Zarb-e-Azb, and why it has not netted many Haqqani commanders. Count on CSF problems and the like to multiply in the near future, if the past is any guide.
All this, of course, when the eastern border is at its hostile worst. N’s long since given up on his dream of peace and commerce. And surely he regrets his flexibility in Delhi, when he avoided Hurriyat as a good will gesture. How Modi’s made that the new bare minimum for talks, and how he’s pushed his extreme right-wing, anti-Pakistan agenda across India’ diverse polity, leave zero space for diplomatic progress. If anything, continued Indian aggression on the LoC and working boundary might even push tension up a notch.
There is, of course, much to write home about regarding China, especially the Corridor. And things are steadily improving with Iran. But the latter runs into further foreign policy complications specific to N’s darlings in the Gulf. They recently came to the fore over the Yemen conflict. And how our snub invited a counter snub hinted at what might come as we warm up to Iran.
So, from N’s point of view, it’s something like the home front of last year, only slightly worse, and a much worse foreign environment. Once more he faces questions about the ’13 elections; and there are by-elections and local government elections to consider – each with grave consequences if not played right.
And there are pitfalls everywhere in foreign affairs. India and Afghanistan are hostile, and US and China are riddled with complications, but there’s a Chinese dream to sell. Yet juggling too many issues at once has never been N’s forte. Especially not when they involve domestic and foreign policy. And almost never when most are of an existential nature.
