Gloom and doom scenario
The other day the entire ruling PML-N leadership wore a sombre look in full glare of the national media. The prime minister was chairing a meeting attended by the top party leadership with his younger brother the chief minister of Punjab in tow. To review recent setbacks suffered by the party on the domestic political front was indeed a serious matter.
The euphoria created by the judicial commission, declaring that there was no grand conspiracy to rob the PTI of victory in the May 2103 general elections, proved to be short-lived. Three PML-N parliament members unseated in a row by election tribunals have undoubtedly boosted the sagging morale of the PTI supporters.
The PML-N decision to contest by-elections in NA 122 in Lahore, where Imran Khan had lost to National Assembly speaker Ayaz Sadiq, rather than going for stay in the Supreme Court is welcome. Similarly the ruling party has chosen the correct path by deciding to contest by-elections in Lodhran and probably in Lahore where Saad Rafiq, despite losing his seat, is surviving on the basis of a stay order.
In a way these forthcoming elections could be construed as a mini referendum on PML-N’s popularity on its home ground. Conversely it is an opportunity for the PTI to challenge the Sharifs un-interrupted suzerainty in Punjab.
The chief spin-doctor of the government, Pervez Rashid, has challenged Imran Khan to contest the Lahore by-election himself. Knowing well that the Khan would be reluctant to do so, as it would entail vacating the present seat he holds. Conversely Imran Khan has challenged Nawaz Sharif to contest against him.
According to Rashid the PTI chief is a habitual boycotter of elections. The reality is, however, somewhat different.
The euphoria created by the judicial commission, declaring that there was no grand conspiracy to rob the PTI of victory in the May 2103 general elections, proved to be short-lived
In the 2008 general election under Musharraf, both the PML-N and PTI, along with Jamaat-e-Islami, allied under the umbrella of APDM (all parties democratic movement), decided to boycott the general elections. It was Sharif who subsequently unilaterally reversed the decision to boycott while the Khan was left high and dry.
Whatever the outcome of the forthcoming by elections, the Sharifs holds on Punjab has been successfully challenged. With the PPP out of reckoning despite Bilawal Bhutto’s half-hearted measures to rusticate its sagging fortunes, it is going to be a two-way fight between the PML-N and the PTI.
The ruling party, virtually half-way through, can no longer feel entirely secure completing its full term. It might be forced to go for early elections owing to emerging political exigencies, or perhaps ‘divine intervention’ that can alter the entire scenario.
Thanks to the NAB (National Accountability Bureau) and the Rangers moving against PPP stalwarts, the much-touted consensus politics is now under serious threat. The arrest of Asif Ali Zardari’s trusted lieutenant, close aide and physician Dr Asim Hussain is a serious blow to the ostensible understanding between the PPP and the PML-N.
Surprisingly the doctor, according to media reports, has been charged with money laundering and abetting terrorism. Asim, who originally belongs to Punjab and runs two hospitals in Karachi, hardly fits in the profile of a terrorist.
Some insiders claim that the noose is being deliberately tightened around the neck of politicians in the name of cleaning the Augean stables. According to the theory, after sorting out the primary target, the MQM, now it is the PPP’s turn.
If the argument has some merit then the PML-N will also be brought under the hammer soon. The government is maintaining a stony silence about who is initiating these concerted moves against the PPP.
Both the NAB and the Rangers simply cannot be on autopilot. Mian Nawaz Sharif, in his recent appearances, clearly gives a worried albeit ‘clueless in Islamabad’ look.
After all he is the prime minister. It is his business to know what is happening on his watch. If he doesn’t then it is a pathetic state of affairs in which federal institutions are no longer taking orders from the competent authority.
Those who firmly believe (and they are many) that a soft coup has already taken place reckon that Sharif is fast losing his grip and power is slipping like sand from his hands. Certainly the prime minister’s body language does not instil much confidence.
Are the hidden hands of the ubiquitous establishment behind recent moves against politicians in the name of accountability? If so, what is the ultimate goal? The military, although behind the scenes active, post-Musharraf has strictly followed the model of not overtly intervening in civilian matters.
It is a stark reality that in the form of Zarb-e-Azb, combating terrorism and restoring peace in Karachi, the military’s footprint has become more and more pronounced.
Apex committees formed under the NAP (National Action Plan) are a clear manifestation of civilian-military partnership. The COAS General Sharif is also leading by example.
Apex committees formed under the NAP (National Action Plan) are a clear manifestation of civilian-military partnership. The COAS General Sharif is also leading by example
Under his leadership the army has shed some of its obsolete paradigms regarding terrorism. That is why the TTP that had remained on the rampage since 9/11 is now on the run. The frequency of meetings between the khaki and mufti shareef points towards an evolving understanding between the military and civilian leadership on domestic as well as foreign policy issues.
Resultantly, the PML-N was forced to outgrow its opportunistic benign approach towards the jihadists. Similarly, Sharif has abandoned his erstwhile favourite hobbyhorse of cuddling too close to New Delhi come what may.
It is against Nawaz Sharif’s grain ‘to take dictation’ from anyone. But by dint of circumstance and perhaps advice from Asif Zardari he is cohabiting with the military leadership.
There are many amongst the commentarati who would love the military to throw out the civilian set up on the pretext of being corrupt and incompetent. It has happened so many times in the past, invariably with disastrous results.
This does not mean that the politicians should literally get away with murder by not delivering and failing to run a clean ship. However, victimisation in the name of accountability has repeatedly proved counter-productive.
Both the notorious Ehtesab Bureau of Saif-ur-Rehman fame or NAB set up by Musharraf failed to usher in an above board system of accountability. Only an anti-corruption czar with parliamentary and judicial oversight can work.
But this does not mean that the politicians, or for that matter any other institution, should be allowed to get away with murder.
