Unrealistic demands and exaggerated perceptions
Saleem Safi has been the face of the AfPak conflict in the Pakistani press for some time now. He has reported from both sides of the Durand Line. In fact, in the years when Pak-Afghan relations were at their worst, Safi was a rare journalist that always found a special welcome in Kabul. His well wishers went all the way up to the presidential palace there, and former President Hamid Karzai often talked to him candidly.
The AfPak situation is clearly changing very quickly. Pakistan deflected some international pressure with Zarb-e-Azb. But soon there were more calls to ‘do more’. Then finally, when Islamabad helped with the Murree process, everybody seemed content. For the briefest moment, everybody seemed happy with Pakistan. Even the domestic situation seemed on the mend. Then, suddenly, things started unravelling again. To understand the twists and turns of this equation, DNA talked exclusively with him.
Question: Keeping in view the recent volley of strong statements by Afghan President Dr Ashraf Ghani and reported differences between groups of Afghan Taliban, how do you see the fate of the Afghan peace process?
Saleem Safi: As far as the recent strong statements by Afghan leaders are concerned, one must understand that Afghanistan President Dr Ashraf Ghani is facing very strong pressure from within the coalition government. Successive Taliban attacks across Afghanistan have led to a sharp increase in anti-Pakistani sentiments once again. Now this internal pressure from the Afghan coalition is proving miserable for Dr Ghani.
The Afghan Taliban have unleashed extreme attacks across the country. The Spring Offensive has been particularly potent this year. The new leadership of the Taliban is making efforts to assert its authority before the world in general and Afghanistan in particular. Mullah Akhtar Mansour wants to prove that the Taliban movement is as potent as was under Mullah Mohammad Omar.
So they have intensified their attacks, which are exerting more and more pressure on the Afghan government. Taliban are also trying to strengthen its position since every party wants to go into any dialogue from a position of strength. So the pressure on Dr Ghani is building as his critics are pushing him to deliver.
On the other hand, the demands of the Afghan government, that Pakistan ensures a ceasefire with the Taliban, are not only unrealistic but also show how fragile the Afghan regime is. There perception about Pakistan’s influence on Afghan Taliban is greatly exaggerated among top Afghan circles.
Pakistan is also responsible for such an impression as we let them believe that we could deliver peace in days and weeks. The unprecedented sitting in Murree for a peace dialogue was again a reason for many Afghans to believe that Pakistan has extraordinary influence over the Afghan Taliban. The Afghan people can’t be blamed for this perception as the Taliban never agreed in the past to talk to the Afghan government. But Pakistan made this happen, which created the impression as if the Taliban were being controlled by Pakistan. This was a simplistic and fabricated impression in my view.
The Afghan Taliban have unleashed extreme attacks across the country. The Spring Offensive has been particularly potent this year
Now let’s talk about reported Taliban differences. They are not in a position of holding an immediate second round of negotiations due to the situation emerging after the announcement of death of Mullah Omar and the election of the new amir, Mullah Akhtar Mansour.
While the Afghan government wants immediate dialogue with the Taliban, Pakistan cannot influence the Taliban for immediate talks. The Taliban are not in a position to go for another round of talks.
Now Afghanistan wants Pakistan to at least push the Taliban for a ceasefire if immediate talks are not possible. Again Pakistan is not in a position to convince the belligerent Taliban for a ceasefire. Yes, Pakistan can urge them to the dialogue table but ceasefire is too huge a demand to make of Islamabad.
So the recent phase of strong statements from the Afghan side is a result of unrealistic demands and exaggerated perceptions about Pakistan’s influence over the Afghan Taliban. But I believe soon both sides would realise the situation on the ground and return to the dialogue table.
Q: How do you assess reports of differences among the Afghan Taliban? How do you see allegations from Qari Hamza of Fidai Mahaz and Mullah Mansoor Dadullah about poisoning or killing Mullah Omar by Mullah Akhtar Mansour?
SS: I believe a false impression is being created about differences and groupings among Taliban ranks. Yes, there were differences but Mullah Akhtar Mansour has successfully overcome almost all such elements.
As far as allegations levelled by Fidai Mahaz or Mullah Mansoor Dadullah are concerned, their grievances are not new and most people know about it. They tried to take advantage of the situation soon after the death of Mullah Omar, supposing people might join them, but failed.
The situation is that Mullah Akhtar Mansour has been recognised by all major Taliban groups as new amir and by and large all Taliban have pledged allegiance to him. Yes, there were doubts over the reason of Mullah Omar’s death and differences also cropped up about the new amir, but the situation has changed. There is a consensus among the Taliban about the new amir now and none of the prominent leaders have challenged Mullah Akhtar. So the smaller groups who still have differences would also reconcile soon.
Almost all governors have pledged allegiance to the new amir while even Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has accepted Mullah Akhtar as his new leader. Moreover, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other religious circles in Pakistan have also endorsed the election of the new chief.
Q: How do you see the opposition of election of Mullah Mansour from Taliban leader Tayyab Agha and the Qatar office?
SS: The importance of the Qatar office was also due to Mullah Akhtar’s support to it. Even when Mullah Omar was alive, some reports had emerged that Tayyab Agha had been suspended and also some reports claimed that he had resigned. It is a fact that Tayyab Agha is a political personality and he came to prominence for once serving as secretary to Mullah Omar.
So, with the demise of Mullah Omar, the importance of Tayyab Agha is also no more. He has also never served as a field commander nor has he been in the Taliban hierarchy. Moreover, other members of the Qatar office are also not with him. Actually, Tayyab Agha has neither formed any separate group nor does he intend to do so. He actually has expressed his anger for not being informed about Mullah Omar’s death.
Q: How do you see the fate of the dialogue process between the Taliban and the Afghan government? Do you think China and Pakistan would be able to convince both sides to agree to a peace deal?
SS: Apparently, the chances of a breakthrough in the Afghan peace dialogue are remote. There is a huge gulf between the demands and goals of the Afghan government and the Taliban. Moreover, the situation is becoming more complex with each passing day as the intelligence agencies of so many regional and international players are active in Afghanistan.
The situation is that Mullah Akhtar Mansour has been recognised by all major Taliban groups as new amir and by and large all Taliban have pledged allegiance to him
Other than the intelligence agencies of the top countries, even the spooks of regional players like India, Russia and Iran are active. These intelligence operatives are aggravating the situation.
Moreover, serious questions have emerged about the capacity and abilities of the Afghan government. There are also reports of differences cropping up between the civil and military leadership of Pakistan over the Afghan issue.
On the other hand, the morale of the Afghan Taliban is quite high due to their recent successes and the exit of US forces from Afghanistan. But I am hopeful and believe that peace talks would restart sooner rather than later and a political solution would also be reached between Afghan Taliban and Afghan government.
Q: What is the basis of your hope for a peaceful solution of the Afghan crisis against all odds?
SS: I am hopeful for dialogue because both sides have no other option but to talk for a solution. Afghan people have suffered a lot during the past many decades and they are sick of war now. Moreover, peace in Afghanistan is not only a desire of Pakistan but Afghan peace is linked to its existence.
As far China is concerned, in the recent past, it had a limited role in Afghanistan. Chinese interests were limited to its economic installations and other business interests in Afghanistan. But now, with the launching of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the Chinese thinking has changed a lot about peace in South Asia region.
Now China understands that the success of the CPEC is interlinked with peace in Pakistan and Afghanistan where it has its strategic interests. So in the developing scenario, peace in AfPak is dearer to China than Pakistan or Afghanistan. Hence, China is playing a more active role in the peace dialogue.
Another aspect is that there was no single world power which enjoyed the trust of all the three key players of the conflict — Afghan Taliban, Pakistan and Afghan government. Now China enjoys the trust of all the three players of the conflict.
Moreover, in the past, each of the world powers had their own wish lists and agendas while China is unique in terms that it has no wish list or vested agenda in Afghanistan. Since China is all for peace and it has full support from Pakistan, I hope both would succeed in making concerned parties to agree on a political solution to the Afghan conflict.
Q: How do you see the emergence of the Islamic State (IS) in Afghanistan? DNA has learnt that the operatives of IS are recruiting militants in Afghanistan; carrying millions of dollars in armoured vehicles. How do you see this new phenomenon in Afghanistan?
SS: Global and regional players are using IS as a tool to achieve their goals. Some elements blame Taliban and others blame Pakistan or US for using IS as a pressure tactic to achieve their goals. However, with both Taliban and Afghan government coming to a political solution, the phenomenon of IS would evaporate as its influence is being over exaggerated.
Look, IS has its roots in the Middle East and its leadership is also based there. It’s hard for the IS leadership to get support in Afghanistan or Pakistan. Afghanistan is also not high on the priority list of the IS chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
On the other hand, Afghan Taliban have always focussed on their own country. The al-Qaeda leadership of the Middle East also is based in Afghanistan so even if there were some Arab militants in Afghanistan, they joined al-Qaeda rather than IS due to the presence of Zawahiri in the region.
Now IS can only flourish in Afghanistan if Taliban and Afghan government are unable to reach consensus for a peaceful solution of the crisis and proxy wars by various intelligence agencies continue. But, in case of a peaceful solution, IS would die down soon because not only al-Qaeda leadership is there to lead the Arab fighters, Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour not only is alive but is also leading from the front and his followers also follow him.