Unravelling
News of Mullah Omar’s death was clearly timed to bulldoze the Murree process. The NDS was not happy with Ghani’s outreach toward Islamabad from the beginning. And now that Pakistan had finally got the talks rolling – which was appreciated by all concerned parties – this was perhaps the ideal opportunity to put the proverbial spanner in the works. It achieves a number of aims at once. One, Taliban infighting will hurt the impressive spring offensive this year. Two, it deflates Pakistan. Only recently, after a decade of “do more” from allies, Islamabad finally received some appreciation for its role in Afghanistan. Now, if the talks falter, it will have nothing to show once again.
And three, it puts Ghani’s conciliatory faction of the government in a world of trouble. Karzai’s cronies always bitterly criticsed this policy. Even Abdullah Abdullah was worried. He represents remnants of the old Northern Alliance, which was as distrustful of Islamabad as Karzai. And since Ghani staked his presidency on the thaw with Islamabad – which was supposed to lead to peace talks that had just started – he is in danger of being defanged before his political teeth fully develop.
As talks are stalled, it is difficult to chart the immediate future. Neither the Taliban nor Kabul are up for talking right now. Taliban have some hard decisions to make. Mansour’s ascendance has not been taken well. Neither the Doha office nor Omar’s family accept him as amir. Ironically, he is charged with being ‘too pro Pakistan’ – so the leverage with the leadership might even suddenly turn into a disadvantage. And if the talks cannot be salvaged, there will simply be more fighting. With IS now clearly in the picture, that means another prolonged, senseless war. Yet Pakistan is still optimistic about the Murree process, since it still got the stamp of approval from Gen Raheel after the corps commanders meeting the other day. But only a joint effort by Kabul, Islamabad, and Taliban’s differing factions can restore peace before the country plunges once again head first into another internal war as yet another superpower limps away from an unsuccessful occupation.