Landmark negotiations
It seems the government is going to have its diplomatic mettle tested once again. Islamabad won much praise recently with the Murree talks. It gave President Ghani in Kabul some breathing space just when the weight of the opposition and parts of the government was bearing down on him to ditch the alliance with Pakistan. It did Pakistan’s international image a world of good, raising the first real prospects of peace in a long time. And it gave the Americans reason to be happy after their departure coincided with the most spirited Spring Offensive of the war.
Now, with Mullah Omar’s stamp of authority gone, the talks are in peril. That, of course, means that Ghani will come under pressure once again, just as Islamabad will be asked once more to do more for the talks. The freeze may indeed be temporary, and Mansour might well rally enough support in time. But neither Kabul nor Islamabad are likely to have the luxury of too much time. The new amir, clearly in a bid to gain legitimacy, as backed the jihad for now. And with field-pressure mounting, Ghani will have to adopt a different policy sooner rather than later if there is no progress.
That’s not the only negotiations Islamabad must think about. The Indians – after the war of words, working boundary and LoC violations, media and foreign office belligerence, etc – want to talk again, apparently, this time at a national security advisors meeting in New Delhi. While there hasn’t yet been a confirmation – nor an agenda decided – the Indian press is typically pretty enlightening about what the Indians would wish to discuss. There’s Gurdaspur and Lakhvi doing the rounds on front pages and editorials again, and still no word of ‘core outstanding issues’ like Kashmir, Sir Creek, etc. Nawaz knows well by now that an Indian outreach usually comes with an unexpected sting. He would not want to be seen as falling for another false breakthrough. Islamabad must therefore be very clear in its position, both with Kabul and New Delhi. It will do what it can to make and keep the peace, but others will also have to play their parts.