Shifting sands in the subcontinent
The final confirmation of the demise of reclusive Afghan leader, the one-eyed Mullah Muhammad Omar, and the elimination of banned Sunni terror outfit Lashkar-e-Jhangvi’s (LeJ) murderous chief Malik Ishaq the same day are seminal events in the relatively brief history of Pakistan’s protracted war against terrorism.
These deaths, though not directly linked, have far reaching implications. For starters, Mullah Omar officially now not on the scene alters the whole dynamics of nascent peace negotiations with the Taliban.
The second round of Pakistan sponsored talks that were due to resume in Murree last Friday has been indefinitely postponed. Obviously, those who were exercising their authority in the name of a man long gone can no longer pretend otherwise.
Sources within the Afghan intelligence — traditionally hostile towards Pakistan — probably leaked the news on the eve of the talks precisely to throw a spanner in the works. That is why perhaps when the whole world, including the White House, was confirming the news our foreign office preferred to call it “mere rumours”.
Rumours or not Sartaj Aziz, the advisor on national security and foreign affairs, had to finally confirm the “bad news”. Aziz, quoting Taliban sources, claimed that talks had been postponed at the specific request of the afghan Taliban.
If at all Mullah Omar was languishing in a Karachi hospital, it would not have been possible without the knowledge of the security apparatus
But the widely circulated account that Mullah Omar died in a Karachi hospital exactly two years ago can be highly damaging for Islamabad. Pakistan is still reeling under the stigma that Osama bin Laden, when killed in May 2011, was living a stone’s throw away from Pakistan Military Academy Kakul for eight long years, without the knowledge of the security establishment.
If at all Mullah Omar was languishing in a Karachi hospital, it would not have been possible without the knowledge of the security apparatus. Similarly, the US administration that had put $10 million head money on the elusive Afghan leader could not have been possibly unaware of his death.
It seems that everyone, for their respective self-interest, maintained a stony silence about his whereabouts: “Mullah Omar is dead, long live mullah Omar”. Now that we all know that the one-eyed mullah is far gone and buried we have to contend with the fallout of the news.
Omar’s deputy Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor has succeeded him as amir. He was the one spearheading talks in Murree and issuing statements on behalf of the dead leader as recent as on Eid, less than a fortnight ago.
Islamabad would very much prefer that the new amir, flanked by his freshly chosen deputes, consolidates his hold on the Afghan Taliban as soon as possible. However, their authority to hold talks is being challenged by the Doha-based political office of the Taliban.
A negative fallout of the disarray in the Taliban ranks is not good news for the peaceniks including President Ashraf Ghani, and Washington and Islamabad as well. Another obvious corollary of the disharmony in Taliban ranks is that erstwhile Taliban factions will join ISIS in bigger numbers.
Not that the Afghan Taliban are actually the “good Taliban” our security establishment made us believe for over a decade. But IS (or Da’ish) are the neo jihadists on the block. Their methods are much more lethal and hence dangerous for Pakistan.
Islamabad, adopting an ostrich like attitude, has been denying their presence within the country. But our formidable security apparatus under General Raheel Sharif could not be oblivious to the clear and present danger they pose; especially spilling over into Pakistan from a turbulent Afghanistan.
In the meanwhile blaming Pakistan for terrorism acts in India remains the favourite hobby horse of Narendra Modi led BJP government. Pakistan has firmly rejected Indian accusations of its involvement in the terrorist attack on a police station in the district of Gurdaspur. But New Delhi insists on hiding its obvious intelligence failure by raising the Pakistan bogey.
The bottom line, however, is the danger posed by the new terrorist threat in the form of IS fast raising its monstrous head. The sooner this realisation sets in New Delhi and Islamabad the better for peace and amity in the sub continent.
The death in a dubious police encounter of Malik Ishaq – the much feared terrorist hailing from the south of Punjab – is being hailed as good riddance. Truly eliminating the lethal sectarian outfit, the LeJ (Lashkar-e-Jhangvi), was long overdue.
However, the methods employed in the process are symptomatic of complete failure of our prosecution and justice system. Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan rightfully expects a pat on the back for restoring a modicum of peace in Karachi.
In the aftermath of the recent meeting of the Punjab Apex Committee, elimination of Ishaq and his two sons by the Punjab police Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) is significant
Nonetheless, most facets of the 20-point NAP (National Action Plan) largely remain unimplemented. It is perhaps largely owing to the consistent failure of successive governments to bring self professed sectarian murderers to book that the state has now been forced to resort to third degree methods to eliminate them.
Ishaq’s outreach into India and his links with the Afghan Taliban are well known. The US classified LEJ as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation in 2003. Despite that the much feared sectarian outfit eliminated hundreds of Shi’a with impunity across the country. The mayhem they inflicted upon the Hazaras in Balochistan was singularly lethal.
There was a perception that elements in the Punjab government as well as the security establishment had a soft corner for LEJ. That is why Jhangvi could literally get away with murder for so long.
In the aftermath of the recent meeting of the Punjab Apex Committee, elimination of Ishaq and his two sons by the Punjab police Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) is significant. This will have a positive fallout not only for Pakistan’s relations with Washington but with Tehran as well.
Relations with India remain at the lowest ebb not entirely owing to lack of efforts on part of Islamabad. Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhry has rightly lamented the Modi government’s consistent belligerence against Pakistan. And Sartaj Aziz has rightly termed it as a dangerous trend.
But unfortunately it takes two to tango. Despite fast-moving regional and global events the Indian leadership plainly refuses to deal with Pakistan on an equal footing and conduct normal interstate relations with its estranged neighbour.