Iranian nuke deal: Geostrategic implications

Removal of sanctions will bring growth to the entire region in complex ways.

The Iranian nuclear deal brings an immense number of economic opportunities for its geographical neighbours, namely, Pakistan, India, and China. Iran’s natural gas reserves are eyed by all three of them and they have distinctive economic cooperation agreements with Iran for their own respective vested interests in various capacities. Iran has suffered a great deal of economic loss due to its seclusion from the world economy because of the sanctions imposed on it until now. Despite of all the political strings attached to the outcome of this deal, Iran would benefit on all fronts in terms of economic growth as well as the geostrategic influence that comes with it. Iran’s rapidly snowballing regional influence would give it an improved status in the global political arena.

Pakistan wants to crush its energy crisis and pump up its staggering economy through the completion of the Iran-Pakistan Pipeline Project. India is ready to reap the benefits of this deal for cheaper energy, passage to the Central Asian States, and Iran is an essential partner for curbing terrorism on the Afghan front after the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. China has always maintained strategic ties with Iran for decades, despite the overbearing effect of America’s influence upon the sanctions, which has revolved around an exchange of roughly $60 billion worth of trade, and the gigantic amount of oil imported by China from Iran over the years. United States alongside with its proxy nation-state Saudi Arabia might be unwilling to see such an economic boom in Iran so soon, as this projected growth goes against their geostrategic planning for the entire region, and Saudi Arabia’s difference in terms of religion might be a mitigating factor in this entire political scenario.

The most positive outcome of the deal for Pakistan will be the possibility of the completion of the Iran-Pakistan Pipeline Project

The most positive outcome of the deal for Pakistan will be the possibility of the completion of the Iran-Pakistan Pipeline Project. Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, minister for petroleum and natural resources, was positive about the future prospects of the deal. He said, “Now, hopefully, as the sanctions are removed, it facilitates us to address our energy need and also meet the contractual obligation”. This shows that Pakistan is preparing to revitalise the deal and pursue the contract so that the energy crisis may be resolved with the help of this pipeline.

Syed Tariq Fatemi said, “An end to sanctions will open up new opportunities for Pakistan to enhance its commercial and economic ties with Iran. We have a long border, and we could have massive trade with that country should this issue of sanctions no longer be hovering over us.” This statement presents a vague stance from Pakistan but, nonetheless, emphasises upon the significance of this deal for it. There is no point of contention, as far as the matter of economic growth is concerned. The geostrategic implications have a much wider scope and several geopolitical players have a stake in this geographical region, which we will explore, as the matter further unfolds.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan will relieve Iran from the sanctions imposed by the United Nations, United States, and the European Union, which were enforced because of Iran’s nuclear activity. This restrained Iran’s economic ties with its neighbours. The $7.5 billion infrastructure project is integral for the facilitation of Pakistan’s energy crisis, which could be solved by the completion of the pipeline project. Pakistan was unable to fulfil its contractual obligation and could not complete the pipeline on its side of the border due to a lack of funds. The completion of this pipeline is also beneficial for China, as it strengthens the passage of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. It will become an integral part of CPEC if completed within due time. China benefits from the completion because this will grant it an uninterrupted gateway to the natural gas field. Pakistan plans to revitalise its economic cooperation with Iran while strengthening security ties, and curbing cross-border terrorism. Militant groups such as Jaish ul-Adl have been creating security problems across state borders, and it is believed that they have been provided a sanctuary in Pakistan, in addition to allegedly receiving funding from Saudi Arabia.

India, on the other hand, has immense economic gains from this deal, and is ready to seize the day by furthering strategic ties with Iran. India is fully aware of Iran’s growing influence in the geopolitical scenario and its regional importance in terms of the Middle East. Inexpensive energy is a prime factor in the strengthening of economic ties but the security implications are also at stake. India is bound by its ties with Afghanistan to maintain stability in the region in terms of security. The passage to Central Asian States also plays an essential role in this scenario. The project of Chabahar port is an integral part of the equation. The risks attached to the construction of this port, which borders on the southeastern region of Iran and comes within a close vicinity to the Pakistani border on the other side, are of immense importance to India. Militant groups such as Jaish ul-Adl and Jundullah have created grave security problems in the region numerous times, which have allegedly been harboured within the Pakistani soil. India cannot take any chances and does not want instability to sabotage its growth. India is meticulously observing the shift in the geopolitical paradigm of surrounding nation-states.

The key to the successful completion of this entire deal on all geographical fronts is curbing cross-border terrorism and maintaining stability within the region

China’s involvement was integral in preventing a war and providing a safe-passage for the successful completion of this deal. China meticulously altered its position on the global front by saving the deal and reducing the effects of the sanctions at the same time. These geostrategic ties encompass nuclear and arms exports as well. The extraterritorial sanctions, which had a negative impact on China, were also removed through this deal. Iran supplies a magnanimous amount of oil to China. China was forced to choose sides on multiple occasions but it outplayed the game of diplomacy by several strategic measures. Iran is the only country which can provide China with access route to the energy-sufficient Persian Gulf states.

The key to the successful completion of this entire deal on all geographical fronts is curbing cross-border terrorism and maintaining stability within the region. All these countries are bound by geographical ties even if they do not like it, which is why they will have to cooperate with each other and put an end to state-sponsored terrorism. The volatile borders should not be a hindrance to regional economic growth.