And the changes it brings!
The regional power structures seem to be in for a number of transitions, given the current deal between Iran and the US. This deal has seemingly elevated Iran’s troubled stature for now into the power centre of the Gulf.
Such a major development has elicited debate and analysis throughout the world, with major publications and analysts presenting their views. Robert Fisk, the Middle-East correspondent of The Independent, has gone as far as asserting Iran to be the new policeman of the Gulf.
The question that needs to be probed in this regard is not about uranium. The question is regional and international diplomatic and strategic ties and of course – ISIS. Iran and ISIS have totally conflicting ideologies and this development will go a long way.
But can we accurately foresee what comes next? Such knotty situations do take time to analyse – no one has a magic wand.
“We still cannot comment much and no one would have ready answers,” said Salman Zaidi, deputy director at Islamabad-based Jinnah Institute.
“We need at least another six months to watch out any further development.”
However, some things are pretty obvious. ISIS won’t be happy with Iran’s elevated stature – but what about the world? What about Pakistan? What about the region? And well, what about the previous policeman of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia?
The sustainability question
Yes, some agreement has been made and yes, it will affect international diplomacy, but is this deal there to stay. Has Rouhani paved something for Iran that will be his legacy forever?
Looking at the past, one might predict the closing of this new chapter in Iran-US relations. However analysts think otherwise.
“I think the past is no more a question in this context,” added Zaidi. “Yes, there have been troublesome relations between US and Iran for decades, things changed dramatically. And this has not happened overnight. Rather, track II channels were being availed for quite some time now. The deal is a significant change and would have a major role in the re-alignment of strategic and diplomatic ties.”
However, one party to the deal is facing a major transition soon, a transition of the government. Zaidi hence pointed out that the American election will definitely be an important milestone for the deal.
“The American response to the realignment in the Middle East is worth watching,” he explained, adding that “we need to see how the American election will affect the situation and how the new government will warm up to entire scenario, especially if it’s Republican, as this deal was mainly a Democrat project.”
However, America was not the only signatory, and Iran derives strength from the fact that all its eggs are not in one basket.
“There is no question of sustainability though,” Zaidi clarified. “Not just the US has entered into this deal; rather there were other global powers involved. So the possibility of US backing out is out of the question. US cannot take a solo flight on the issue. The deal has surprised many, but it will go on. The element of sustainability is undoubtedly there. With multiple partners, backing out is not possible. Yes the American election would be a factor; however there will definitely be engagement. It might be slow, but would be there nonetheless.”
America was not the only signatory, and Iran derives strength from the fact that all its eggs are not in one basket
Therefore, the deal is there to be sustained, and all the key stakeholders’ better figure out what their position should be in the new scenario.
Iran vs KSA: Whose hegemony would prevail?
KSA has often been labelled as the exporter of terrorism and rivalries between Iran and KSA are not hidden. With Iran and US coming close, KSA might want to rethink its priorities. And since Pakistan has always been close to KSA, it too needs to figure out where it is heading.
“Pakistan will face a challenge to stay away from Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalries in the Gulf region,” said Dr Hassan Askari Rizvi, renowned political scientist and security analyst.
He thinks this stability would be good for Pak-Iran relations as well.
“Iranians always doubted Pakistan. They were not happy with Pakistan’s closeness with the US, because they were worried that US might be using Pakistani territory for operations against Iran. Now, with improved relations between US and Iran, Pakistan can maintain a comfortable relationship with both.”
But this won’t come off easy. Being close to either Iran or KSA would mean angering the other.
The religious right in Pakistan has always been ideologically and sentimentally close to KSA. They won’t ever want to move away.
“Saudi Arabia and Arab countries are undoubtedly our friends and our well-wishers,” Allama Tahir Ashrafi of Pakistan Ulema Council told DNA.
“We have different sorts of relationships with them that won’t be affected by anything, let alone a deal.”
Nehal Hashmi of PML-N, however, thinks otherwise. According to him, Pakistan does not solely have KSA to depend upon.
“Well, there has already been a paradigm shift,” he said. “We were already having new alliances, not being dependent solely on KSA. China has been an example and Iran was already there. So there had already been a shift in our foreign policy. We were not depending on any one country.”
But what about KSA itself self? Always on good terms with US, it had no worries previously. However bridging of gaps between US and Iran might have an impact on KSA being in the good books of US in future.
“Well, in the aftermath of the deal KSA has the most work to do,” Zaidi pointed out. “There are inherent conflicts in its foreign policy and therefore it needs to re-orient and re-create the entire foreign policy portfolio. Well, exporting terrorism has prevailed over the past decade but that is not a part of the foreign policy. KSA needs to give its policy on ISIS.”
Therefore, the stakeholder that will be most affected is KSA. Its regional hegemony is essentially under question now. Pakistan too therefore needs to be very careful in the scenario. Apparently, we have exhibited some courage recently by saying no to meddling in KSA’s battles, but given the sentiment of Pakistanis and our history, things might not be as simple.
We will probably be seeing Iran and KSA struggling for a greater share in the regional pie. In Zaidi’s words: “There is another period of uncertainty in the Middle East”
The problem that is ISIS
The next great saga might be a tussle between ISIS and Iran, the new cop.
“Well ISIS is the new orthodoxy in the region, and it is here to stay, that’s for sure,” Zaidi analysed. “KSA has never taken a strong stance on the issue, as House of Saud and ISIS have same ideologies. A similar ideology converted Hejaz into Saudi Arabia. And well, if we see a neutral KSA, then definitely ISIS would be the new power centre in the region.”
However, does ideological similarity translate into methodological similarity as well? Dr Rizvi chose to differ.
“In the case of ISIS, the Saudis may share their ideology but not the methods,” he pointed out. “So they will not be accommodative of ISIS, as ISIS also wanted to over throw KSA. If ISIS is anti-Sh’ia and anti-Iran, it is anti-Kingdoms at the same time. So this link does not really hold.”
Pakistan too faces multiple challenges. Talking from an economic standpoint, the pipeline project seems more feasible now
Zaidi holds a different viewpoint though. The battles do not necessarily need to be a display of ammunition. Rather taking a stance is also important.
“Well, KSA does need to realise that fighting ISIS the one day and then staying quiet for the next six months does not constitute concrete policy. ISIS has confused a lot of people in the Middle East, in Pakistan and in the West. So it is something that cannot be ignored,” he said.
Hence, Iran being elevated might mean trouble for ISIS. But as discussed earlier, ISIS is here to stay. But so is the Iran-US deal. This fact alone might lead to many important developments in the longer run.
Pak-Iran relations – and the pipeline
Pakistan is already fighting terrorism – so is Iran. Extremists hate both Pakistan and Iran. Where does the whole situation lead to?
“Well yes this is important for our war against militancy. We are already up against militants. We are anti-ISIS. So is Iran. So yes, this deal will help,” Nehal Hashmi agreed. However, he also pointed something else out. “Well, as far as any sort of partnership between Pakistan and Iran is concerned over terrorism and militancy, we are not very sure. We will have to see how things go.”
The religious right in Pakistan however does not seem to like Iran much.
“Iran has been creating a lot of trouble for Pakistan lately,” said Allama Ashrafi. “Through its training camps, through insurgency on the Pak-Iran border, and through the literature it sends into Pakistan, Iran definitely tries to ensure the impact of Iranian Revolution on the region. With the new deal, it will be even more encouraged to do so. Therefore Pakistan needs to communicate it clearly to the Iranians to stop. Otherwise it will worsen. Iranian aggression will increase probably.”
Zaidi, however, thinks Iran can contribute to the solution of a number of problems.
“For the sake of future assessment, Iranian foreign-policy needs to be watched out. There needs to be a global re-think on the problem that is Middle East. There are many problems there. An Afghanistan problem is also there for the next five years at least. So we do need to see how Iran can help us in rehabilitating the Afghanistan problem,” he explained.
However, we don’t need to be fighting in terms of guns the entire time. We also need to look at what the deal would mean to Pakistan economically.
“Iran will be able to concentrate on its economy and its social welfare. And its energy that was earlier focused on US will be preserved now,” Dr Rizvi explained.
“One major impact will be the easing of tension being useful to Pakistan. Secondly, it will open ways for improved economic relations between the two countries. And most importantly, it will provide opportunities to Pakistan to mobilise international funds for Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.”
“I think this is a very positive change that we will see because of this deal. This will translate into easing of relations, and will create an economic opportunity for Pakistan as well,” Hashmi predicted. “There will be a good impact regarding the economic scenario, as Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline would be easier to work upon. Trade and commerce will definitely have a surge.”
But will it be smooth sailing? Zaidi warned stakeholders to be cautious.
“We cannot set too many expectations at the moment and we need at least six months to see how Iran repositions itself as a global economic centre. We also need to see how Iran gets back in line with the global powers,” he pointed out.
However, he too acknowledged the economic opportunity. “Iran is undoubtedly a big player in the oil market, though it could not capitalise on it because of problems with WTO. Now a new avenue for Pakistan-Iran trade can open up,” he commented.
Following all the analysis, a major transition in regional power structure is probable. It is also likely that Iran would find relief from a number of sanctions, and finally its concerns would be broader than uranium alone. It will have the space to revamp its economy and its society. KSA seems to lose some ground in the near future. And Pakistan too faces multiple challenges. Talking from an economic standpoint, the pipeline project seems more feasible now. However, it is in a vulnerable position both ideologically and diplomatically. ISIS is another stakeholder that needs to worry a little. Iran surely does not like it, and might try to crush it.
However the situation is not entirely black and white. It is grey, so we will have to wait and see what changes the new cop brings with it!