Uncertainties in Afghanistan

Another time of transition

There are uncertainties about the future of Afghan peace. The second session of the Taliban-Afghan talks could not be held after the news of Mullah Omar’s death as the credentials of those who had nominated the negotiating team were questioned. The Taliban Shura has reportedly elected a new leader. His ability to keep the factions together is now going to be tested. It is still unknown whether the Taliban would stick to the earlier decision of holding peace talks with the Afghan government. The Afghan establishment also seems divided with some willing to grant the insurgents a political role while others opposing this.

There is a lot of confusion about what is happening within the Taliban network. There are reports about the religious militia having split into three or four factions on the issue of succession. Since rivalries within militant groups tend to be resolved through the barrel of the gun there is a likelihood of clashes in the organisation. It remains to be seen if this benefits the Afghan government or the IS. The IS has set up bases in Afghanistan’s Nangarghar province, neighbouring Pakistan. It is under repeated bombardment from the drones. On Thursday also drone strikes killed about twenty IS supporters in the area.

There are also reports about dissensions in the Taliban Shura over peace talks with the Afghan government. Meanwhile the Taliban fighters have continued suicide attacks along with capturing territory under the government’s control. On Thursday they gained control of a district in Helmand province. While Pakistan has yet to issue an official reaction to the changing situation, US State Department has again encouraged the Taliban to use the time of transition to make genuine peace with the Afghan government to rebuild their lives in peace in Afghanistan.

Peace in Pakistan is dependent on peace in Afghanistan. The two governments therefore need to keep in touch to deal with the challenge they face.