When multiple threats converge
Afghan reconciliation talks – launched this month in Murree — have been described internationally as a viable way out of Afghanistan’s perpetual state of conflict, exacerbated by recent ferocity of the Taliban insurgency, the Da’ish threat, fissures in the unity government and Kabul’s snail-paced reforms.
The peace talks between the Afghan Taliban and Kabul have the endorsement of both the United States – which is set to withdraw its troops by 2016-end at the conclusion of the 9/11-sparked war — and China — which is entering a new phase of political and economic engagement with Afghanistan.
Internally for Afghanistan, participation of deputy foreign affairs minister, Khalil Karzai of the unity government, and governor of Parwan province, Mohammad Asim, representing Chief Executive Officer Abdullah Abdullah, a leader with support base in Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara communities – is significant in taking forward the process with mutual trust, as people still have bitter memories of the 1990s civil war.
In the realm of security, the US has taken out the Da’ish’s Afghanistan chief Hafiz Saeed, following up on elimination of several members of the deadly militant group, headquartered in Al-Raqqah, Syria, and which also controls vast swathes of territory in Iraq, wracked by multiple conflicts.
While President Ashraf Ghani’s unity government continues to face a spate of challenges, Pakistan-assisted political reconciliation process and the US action against Da’ish militants provide him with a direly needed cushion to shore up his administration.
In a holistic scenario, the reconciliation question and the Da’ish threat broadly define many Afghan security hopes and fears as the country tenuously transitions to a new era of international engagement. After around 14 years of 9/11-caused conflict and substantial inflows of investments in infrastructure, health and education fields, Kabul faces the daunting task of taking control of its fortune in the post-2016 world, when all American troops will have left.
In the realm of security, the US has taken out the Da’ish’s Afghanistan chief Hafiz Saeed, following up on elimination of several members of the deadly militant group, headquartered in Al-Raqqah, Syria, and which also controls vast swathes of territory in Iraq, wracked by multiple conflicts
During his visit to Washington in March, President Ghani raised his deep concern over the possibility of the Da’ish or self-proclaimed Islamic State wading into the inflammatory Afghan mix. Ghani likened the issue of reconciliation between the national unity government and the Taliban, to an “elephant lurking in the room,” and he termed Da’ish as a “dark cloud” hovering over the Afghan horizon.
With this murky background, reconciliation talks provide an opportunity for future thinking by Afghan political and ethnic groups. On the one hand, support for difficult reconciliation step indicates a growing sense among Afghan politicians about the importance of having peace. But the leaders also know that the Taliban’s harsh treatment of women in the past and disrespect for cultural heritage are affront to the majority of Afghans.
On the other hand, the launch of talks is reflective of a reality check for Taliban leaders, as ground conditions change rapidly. If Afghan Taliban remain in the shadows, Da’ish or IS militants are ready to fill in ungoverned spaces and give the Taliban a fight for turf control. Some analysts say in addition to Pakistan’s persuasion for peace talks, the Da’ish threat and fear of the militant factions joining the Da’ish might also have pushed the Taliban leaders to a reconciliation process with Kabul.
More broadly, however, it is clear that the talks are a result of several interrelated strategic and political developments including Ghani’s adherence to a pragmatic approach towards Kabul’s relations with Islamabad, Pakistan’s Zarb-e-Azb operation against militants in the tribal areas, an intelligence-sharing deal between Pakistan and Afghanistan, Pakistan’s desire for stability in view of improved economic outlook including the massive 46-billion dollars China Pakistan Economic Corridor as well as Islamabad’s key role in materialising the reconciliation initiative. Mullah Omar, the reclusive Afghan Taliban leader, has committed to Murree reconciliation talks, declaring them “legitimate.”
The Washington Post has called the reconciliation talks a boon for President Ghani, who reached out to Pakistan despite facing domestic political pressures including from his grousing predecessor Hamid Karzai. Quite significantly, the inception of the talks has also sent a promising signal to the international community on continuing economic and political engagement with Afghanistan.
On the Pakistani side, several visits by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Army Chief Gen Raheel Sharif have helped repair some of the mistrust between the two neighbours. Afghan leaders also know that their country can no longer afford the egotistical ways of the Karzai era, when the former president wasted his country’s precious time on confrontation with the United States and Pakistan. A perennial state of chaos like the Middle East conflagration would be disastrous for all.
President Obama, who this month secured a legacy-defining deal to stop Iran from pursuit of nuclear weapons, also needs to pursue the goal of Afghan stability vigorously, particularly now that Kabul sees a realistic reconciliation opportunity with the help of Pakistan.
How India, which makes no secret of its desire to undercut Pakistani interests in the region, reacts to UN-led international recognition of Pakistan’s role for Afghan peace remains to be seen. That is the case despite Pakistani and Indian prime ministers holding talks in Ufa, Russia, this month. How a post-nuclear deal Iran, which this week vowed to stick to its apocalyptic use of militancy in other countries as a foreign policy tool, behaves will also be a factor in determining Afghan peace prospects.
While the reconciliation bid is in its early phase with possibly caveat-filled negotiations ahead, questions remain over acceptance of the Taliban by the Afghans, and the Da’ish threat hangs around, the efforts toward working out a peace deal and curbing Da’ish have opened up a new window for cooperation among major players – US, Pakistan, and China
Recent reports suggest Tehran backed the Taliban in fighting Da’ish militants in Afghanistan. If Da’ish spreads its tentacles in Afghanistan, it would make sense for Kabul, Islamabad and Tehran to find common cause against the militant group that uses brutal tactics to rankle its targets.
In the upcoming months, a critical part of the effort would be the state of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations. If the reconciliation process proceeds meaningfully, Afghans would be expected to reciprocate the Pakistani support by targeting the TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) militants including Mullah Fazlullah, who have been fighting the Pakistani state for several years. Islamabad would also expect Kabul to stop India from using Afghan soil to stir up trouble in Balochistan – home to strategic Gwadar port.
For Kabul another key challenge would be to provide economic hope to its youth. Besides expanding trade with Pakistan, the US-backed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project and CASA-1000 electricity plan and Chinese investment – all needing a stable Afghanistan to serve as corridor – could boost the faltering Afghan economy. China has its own domestic and regional reasons for supporting Afghan stability with political as well as economic investments, as Beijing wants to alleviate any support for Uighurs militancy in Xinjiang province.
While the reconciliation bid is in its early phase with possibly caveat-filled negotiations ahead, questions remain over acceptance of the Taliban by the Afghans, and the Da’ish threat hangs around, the efforts toward working out a peace deal and curbing Da’ish have opened up a new window for cooperation among major players – US, Pakistan, and China.
“The most important thing about the two-day meeting is that the delegations agreed to convene again in several weeks to discuss the possibility of formal peace talks. Whether that meeting takes place will be the next test and will require continued assistance and prodding from Pakistan, China and, especially, the United States,” The New York Times said in an editorial.
Analysts also believe that reconciliation opportunity is also a moment of truth for the Afghans.
“Now it is also up to the Afghan political leaders from all ethnic backgrounds to come together — the best way Afghans can own this process is to carry forward the negotiations to their logical conclusion.
“No doubt, there would be many contentious issues — but Kabul’s success would lie in ending the militant violence, expanding governance and safeguarding rights of minorities and women as ensured by the constitution,” says Aman Ghilzai, an expert on Afghanistan.
