Mullah Omar and warring factions
No doubt Mullah Omar stepped in – or was brought in, depending on whether you are seeing it from Kabul or Islamabad – to the talks about the talks to lend a greater degree of credibility to the process. Clearly the initial Murree euphoria did not impress many people in Afghanistan; at least not their press. Editors have attacked the obvious disconnect between the Taliban’s negotiating team and the Qatar office. The former are accused of being ISI assets. But others call the Qatar office just another ISI show piece. In Karzai’s time parliament voted ISI as a bigger enemy than Taliban. And now ISI is central to talks with Taliban.
More than the Taliban, the Afghan reaction is about Ghani. Theoretically, at least, his theory seems to be working out fine, though it has run into its share of hiccups already. He banked on the Pakistani military to bring the Taliban. That much, finally, is now working out. And once ISI and NDS get over their differences, they will help end each other’s insurgency, instead of willingly stoking them. But while Gen Raheel exercises complete influence over the ISI – and his promise of talks now stands honoured – there are very serious doubts about Ghani’s reach.
He is surrounded by opponents of the Pakistan outreach. Even Abdullah Abdullah’s faction of the coalition government is suspicious. And the military – having already lost men and material in Kunar and Nooristan to please Pakistan – is in no mood to play along. Nor is the NDS too eager about abandoning TTP assets they have nurtured over the years; a policy that has helped, in no small manner, in turning around Pakistan’s ‘strategic depth’ in their opinion. In face of such opposition, the only card Islamabad and Kabul have to play is the talks. They must succeed. And what happens in Kabul in the run-up to follow up negotiations in August will be critical. Unless Ghani can leverage the momentum of the talks – including Mullah Omar’s initiative – to calm disgruntled elements, the future only holds more war, and it’s not just warring Taliban factions that are a threat to the peace.
