Back-channel diplomacy takes years of commitment
Khurshid Kasuri has definitely been the most successful Pakistani foreign minister in recent memory, especially if you consider India. He came on board not long after the Agra disappointment. Soon he was spearheading Gen Musharraf’s back-channel diplomacy, which ultimately brought the two sides closer than ever in history and almost within a signature of settling Sir Creek. History might indeed have been different had the lawyers movement not put off a Manmohan visit in ’07.
He also lobbied for greater trade access for Pakistan across the world, even in Latin American markets (where Pakistan had never reached before). Even the Israelis wanted to talk to Pakistan, and much more. He told DNA last year about how the Turks arranged a secret meeting between him and the Israeli foreign minister under cover of darkness – even all lights were turned off – at the Istanbul airport. Pakistan was taken more seriously then than now, if nothing else.
Things are much different now, of course, especially with regard to India. Nawaz had hoped for peace and trade with right-of-centre governments in both capitals. But Modi first played with Nawaz’s sincerity at his swearing in, then went on a rampage, ridiculing Pakistan at international forums and turning up the heat at the LoC and working boundary. The rest of the world, too, has been more cross than pleased with Pakistan the past couple of administrations. Some relief has come with Zarb-e-Azb, though.
Things are much different now, of course, especially with regard to India. Nawaz had hoped for peace and trade with right-of-centre governments in both capitals
And Modi has toned down a little. No doubt the BJP realised it pushed itself, more than Pakistan, into a corner with its extreme rhetoric. And, of course, there was international pressure. But then Nawaz bungled the Ufa handshake. And the press, especially Indian, is roaring with ‘superior body language’ and ‘diplomatic coup’ catch-lines.
“It’s very childish if they are celebrating”, he said as DNA looked him up once again to make sense of Track-II and back-channel.
“One would expect more maturity from the world’s largest democracy; the future of 1.5 billion people is at stake”.
Veterans of the Pak-India game, like him, believe that the only reason for celebration can be some sort of real achievement. And in that regard, despite the Ufa controversy, he is “hopeful”. But Indian media one-upmanship is “as premature as immature”.
There are some serious problems, though, that the government will have to overcome.
“The Ufa affair could certainly have been handled better”, he added. “But the prime minister has isolated the foreign office. And Sartaj Aziz and Tariq Fatemi are competent, but they are also sidelined”.
If the FO had had it usual say, according to Kasuri, such embarrassing lapses would be easily avoided. They plan everything down to the last detail. Every gesture, every word is taken into account. And Nawaz went solo, which was reflected in his actions and the joint statement.
“I know the working methodology of the foreign office very well. They are very particular about optics”.
But now that optics have been compromised, and Track-II and back-channel diplomacy is the way forward, what is likely o emerge? Musharraf faced similar treatment from BJP in Agra, but he had what many Pakistanis considered the good sense to disassociate from the Indians when they obviously did not want the talks to continue. Later, when the back door was the preferred option, that posture gave Pakistan an upper hand of sorts. How similar, or dissimilar, is the situation now?
“The approach we adopted was very different, very thorough”, he explained, adding that “we concentrated on every comma, every full-stop, every paragraph for three years without compromising. That is when results started emerging”.
Agra is clearly important to him, even though he was not part of the process.
“There were important reasons for Agra’s collapse”, he continued. “And these things had nothing to do with BJP infighting, which of course did play a role”.
The peace overture coincided, unfortunately, with the awkward tangle between Vajpayee and Advani as BJP’s power politics intensified. Both pursued agendas that they thought played better to the core audience. He explains that in greater detail, apparently, in his book due this week.
“Agra failed because proper homework was not done prior to it”, he explained. And, judging from his analysis, similar lack of proper homework was responsible for the glitch in Ufa.
What homework should Nawaz do then? India is important for the party, after all. Along with terrorism and electricity, India was PML-N’s core campaign promise. How would Kasuri advise Nawaz to proceed?
“He should remember that the road to hell is paved with good intentions”, he said.
“The prime minister will need thorough planning. He will need to take the foreign office’s advice seriously. And he will definitely need to appoint a full time foreign minister if he is to go even half way in achieving his aim”.
He added that, considering the times, the minister must be hands on and effective.
The prime minister continues to burden himself with the foreign ministry, and does not consult with advisers Sartaj Aziz and Tariq Fatemi, which does not work on the India matter, at least
As for the other two election promises, “the credit for cracking down on terrorists definitely goes to Gen Raheel Sharif, no matter how charitable one is to Nawaz”, he said plainly.
Politicians, he explained, tend to favour negotiations more often than not. And such was clearly the case with the PML-N and TTP. But such talks must produce “signals”, which negotiations with the Taliban didn’t. “Hence there was the impression that the enemy was just gaining time, and the government was playing along”.
“And why even comment on electricity”, he said of the last PML-N promise.
Since electricity and terrorism are now either compromised or out of its reach, the ruling party must make sure it leaves a lasting imprint on the latest attempt to engage with India.
But so far there is little sign that it is willing to put in more effort than its usual rhetoric. The prime minister continues to burden himself with the foreign ministry, and does not consult with advisers Sartaj Aziz and Tariq Fatemi, which does not work on the India matter, at least.
That, in a nutshell, is Khurshid Kasuri’s take. As for everyday politics, he has settled down nicely with PTI. The adventures of the Musharraf days are a long gone thing. He does not offer much though on the general’s proposed unification of the Muslim Leagues.
“I have not given it much thought, it’s not even in my book”, he said. “But I still have a lot of respect for Gen Musharraf. That does not mean, of course, that we did not disagree on things from time to time”.
The general did some good things for Pakistan, which must be appreciated.
“But I am comfortable and happy where I am”.